Weird NFL total stat

Weird NFL total stat Historically, there has been a bias to the UNDERS during the first two weeks of the NFL. Most handicappers thought that the new kickoff rules would reduce scoring. Obviously, the OVERS have dominated the first two weeks and the line maker is making the appropriate adjustment to this week's opening totals. I find it amazing that only two NFL teams (out of 32 teams) have played UNDER in both of their first two games (Jacksonville and Houston). I have been tracking NFL totals data for a long time and I can't remember such a bias in the early start of a new season. One would think that more than two "dominant defensive teams" or "offensively- challenged teams" would exhibit two consecutive UNDERS in early September. charliej

Thanks Charliej, Maybe you can comment on this; Last week every NFL total opening number was bet towards the OVER, and even with the inflated numbers I think it was still 10-6 to OVERS. Seems this week to be the same, all opening totals going to the OVER. Seems eventually just blindly betting UNDERS is going to produce results.

Bluehorseshoe: In the past, I would have agreed 100% with your supposition. Historically, the NFL totals market has been extremely efficient. For a period of ten+ years, the year-end number of OVERS and UNDERS was nearly a perfect 50/50 proposition. When the number of OVERS or UNDERS would become skewed during the season, it would be safe to assume that that the imbalance would correct itself in the coming weeks. A handicapper could use this market efficiency to his advantage when handicapping the week's card as the season progressed. However, today's market is not replicating past performance.. When the NFL made the announcement mid-season last year that they were going to penalize and/or fine violent hits on defenseless players, we saw a sharp spike in scoring. For the balance of the season up to week 16 ( I downgrade my data for week 17 because so many teams rest their starters in the "meaningless" games of the final week), OVERS cashed at a 55+ % rate. This trend has obviously continued during the first two weeks of this season. It is obvious that the line maker has adjusted his opening totals this week. Only one game has a total of less than 40 ( and that was a 39.5 on the Pitt/Indy game). Like the line maker, I have made adjustments upward on my totals. My numbers are pretty much in line with the openers. I usually look for a disparity of 3 points from my number before a play is triggered. As of today, I have no 3 point difference on any game. I would remain cautious about blindly betting UNDERS until the line maker over adjusts his opening numbers. If you make a strong number on your totals, you will know when the over adjustment has occurred. I will be more of an observer than a bettor this week. I will probably have very few plays. Good luck, charliej