Why No Love For Stanford?

Why No Love For Stanford? See Fez and Alf on Oregon at -6' with line now at 7. Seems to be sharp thinking on other forums as well. I think JH and Saban are the two best coaches in CF right now. I think Stanford's shutout of UCLA looks a whole lot more impressive now. Destroyed both UCLA/ND on the road. And it sure seems Luck will be the #1 pick in NFL draft. I know Corvallis is a huge home field, but I'm just not sure how Oregon will respond when Stanford punches them in the gut - ASU put up some serious yards on them. I just think this is way too many points between two very good teams - hope it somehow gets over 7. And anxious to see Alf's write up and see if it gets me off the game. Curious as to others thoughts as well.

I agree. Let's not forget that Stanford rolled Oregon last year 51-42. Oregon came into that game off of a 47-20 win over USC and Stanford dropped the hammer on them. Stanford is easily the most physical team in the Pac 10 and can sustain drives and keep Oregon off the field. I think ASU showed last week that Oregon is vulnerable and you can bet Stanford won't kill themselves the way ASU did.

No doubt there will be plenty of love for the power dog here. If this game were at Stanford, (the graveyard of favorites) Oregon would be -2 and I would not be interested. I had to take -6.5 because a) I made the line closer to -10 than -7 and knew all the scalpers are going to buy -6.5, b) big revenge game c) not impressed first half vs the Irish and B2B RD games playing a tougher/better opponent this week.

[QUOTE=Bigsmooth;28767] Oregon came into that game off of a 47-20 win over USC and Stanford dropped the hammer on them.[/QUOTE] PAC-10 teams have been horrible the game after beating USC over the last several seasons. It is very possible that Oregon was flat for the game last year.

Counterpoints: Eugene (not Corvallis, not 98 degrees at gametime like last week) at 8pm worth 4pts so neutral field line is a FG or less. ASU better than we thought by a mile. Oregon's question mark is clearly how to deal with D gameplans that target James but with the (notable) exception of QB they are better across the board on the offensive side and ASU's D better than Stanford's. Last year's "rolling" really had Oregon out-yarding them by 75yds or so. Pass for me unless they hang a cheap total, but cannot wait for it--should be a lot of fun

[QUOTE=OldTime'sSake;28770] It is very possible that Oregon was flat for the game last year.[/QUOTE] That was the consensus here, if I recall correctly. If the line comes back I will take Oregon, but I expect to sit this one out.

OR -6, stan+8 both goodbets Counter intuitive, but someone shows me: OR -6 great bet OR -7 garbage I made the game , but others made it 8, another made it 11, and one other guy "loves" stanford.. 7....

Special teams, penalties, and turnovers. These invariably go a long way in determining the outcome of these affairs. I can't say enough about how much respect I have for Fez and Alf's opinion and it's why I stepped away from this game until/if we get to 7.5/8 as I'm very much keen on playing the Stanford side. Oregon has several edges, with one of the big ones being its ability to create turnovers from opponents (number one in the country +18), covert in the red zone, and use it's athletic ability to wear a team down over the course of 60 minutes (reference ASU and Tennessee). With that being said, I'm pretty sure I'm the one guy Fez was referring to which "loves" Stanford, but it's where you have to let go of the ego and focus on making money in this business. Two to three years ago I probably would have played Standford at plus 6.5 at the open b/c I made the game 4-4.5. I was in a similar spot with Cal in 2008, who had impressed enough of the nation, and was headed to Eugene to play the Ducks lead by Dennis Dixon. After opening as a 4.5 pt underdog on Sunday night, the steam quickly carried them to -6.5 within 24 hours. I "loved" Cal in the game and played the opener and just got a horrible number. The sentiment over Oregon ran the game to 7, and even 7.5 on game day as the syndicates sided with the home side. Cal pulled out a 7 point victory but Oregon lead by 7 in the affair and the Bears were fortunate to come away with a victory... This case draws a number of similarities to me, and it's where I hope my experience allows me to play Stanford plus 8 at gametime which is tremendously better than 6.5 and why I should turn in my sports bettor's card if I would have made the same mistake again... I think Stanford can give Oregon a number of problems. Much like Jeff Tedford did 2 years ago in Autzen, Stanford will look to play ball control and methodically work the clock, while keeping field position in check and converting red zone opportunties (number 1 in the country 26-26, 18 TD's and 8 Field Goals) and on drives which fall short, use reliable Nate Whitaker (5-5 vs ND, 9-9 on year) to still salvage points from the drive. Many teams have tried to do this when visiting Autzen, but Stanford has the players, discipline, and resources to execute the plan. Averaging a meager 47 yards a game in penalties for the Cardinal (key for keeping emotions and focus against hostile road crowd), and an ability to hold onto the ball (both 36 minutes Time of possession at vociferous Norte Dame and 36 min at Rose Bowl against UCLA). This parlayed with a great possession QB in Luck (11 TD - 2 INT) gives me the comfort that Head Coach Harbaugh will make the right tactical decisions to get me the money. I could expound on my reasons for Stanford and will probably have some spirited discussion with my handicapping counterparts tomorrow at the Tuesday group, but this is more about process than what the final score is. Alf made a great bet at -6.5, and I hope to make a great one at +8... It was Fez and Alf though that will give me the extra edge and help me get the right number...That's what this forum is all about...

Oregon being flat was part of the reason but Stanford won the battle at the line of scrimmage and ran at will. And in football when you can't control the line of scrimmage, you typically are not going to win the game...