WHy the SB is going to close 2 to 2.5 IMO.............

WHy the SB is going to close 2 to 2.5 IMO............. I'm meeting with 10 sharps. The consensus is Gmen, but many are saying "the 3.5 was a good bet, BUT NOW it's gone so maybe the best bet is PATS ML at post". I said "ANYONE WANT TO BET ME RIGHT NOW. I WILL GIVE YOU -3 +107 if you want Pats". Teddy Covers brought up the good point, that no one wanted it, since they "knew" they would get a better ML. I then asked "GIVEN the game was about to kick, we had no outs, who would take -3+107"................CRICKETS A small sample size no doubt, but the key here is NO ONE wanted Pats at -3 even when +107 was the best number in the world ........the meeting was MOnday.

Just curious, was Teddy Covers counted as one of the "ten sharps"? Fez there are plenty of professional quant bettors who make this game 3/57 or so. Why is there so much love for NYG? Let me guess, because they're "hot" right now and Eli is playing the "best he's ever played".

I'm happy that the game will go off at the best possible line for me, based on my handicapping, when I am in Las Vegas to enjoy it. What a time to be a tourist. My own informal whatnot has not found a single person on NE. Who is betting that side to keep this line from flipping to NYG -1? Does LV want a balanced ledger so they win no matter what or not? It's almost like they're more concerned with potential middles than booking balanced action.

maybe people you consider sharps are not that sharp... it is very clear that money has poured in on gmen and public will be on gmen too. i will gladly take pats -125 and destroy the weak ass props and ingame...

[QUOTE=IrishTim;50443]Just curious, was Teddy Covers counted as one of the "ten sharps"? [/QUOTE] haha.... i was going to say the same thing.... have u heard him on the podcasts... sounds like me and my buddies shooting the shit.... talks fast... acts like hes smarter than u.... i never hear him innovating anything reealy sharp though.... seems like a nice fellow possibly... not sure if serious about him being a sharp

[QUOTE=Fezzik;50442]I'm meeting with 10 sharps. The consensus is Gmen, but many are saying "the 3.5 was a good bet, BUT NOW it's gone so maybe the best bet is PATS ML at post". [/QUOTE] Is this the meeting with John Netto, et al that CNBC filmed?

This line should be pick, not -3. That's why you are seeing so much love for the Giants. The Pats are not the better team. Why would the Pats be considered the better team, to be favored by three points? They have defeated only one playoff team this year - last week Baltimore by three points on their home field, in a game they were dominated in statistically and should have lost. Please don't count Denver. They lost on their home field to the Giants earlier in the year and the Giants had key offensive players out of that game. The Giants have defeated very good teams in recent weeks. Give me one quality win for the Pats other than last week. That doesn't mean the Pats are not a quality team and can't win this game by 10 points but their body of work does not present that scenario. The Patriots defense is weak and the Giants can take advantage of that. I'm not saying NE can't win this game but at plus three the Giants are a very good bet. At +3.5, they were a great bet. They could be down by 10 and back door this game very easily. At anything less than three, I just think it's good value on the Giants and they are a normal bet. If the Giants became favorite, the value on them is gone.

I see no reason to get down on Ted. He's been a contributor here and there's good information in his posts. If he's not one of your faves, that's cool. But I'll speak up for him.

Well said by Sixth Sense IMO. 2.5? We're already there at a few spots here in Reno. And they were there yesterday. And I still see them today so there has not been and I doubt there will be any rush to bet NE. (and at Cal Neva that can be bet in LV as well) My expectations are that someone will break down and go to -120 on NE either here in Reno or perhaps even offshore. A major betting exchange like Matchbook might get to -120 paving the way for an even better price somewhere here in town. For those new to the board I work at sports betting 10 hrs a day I have +4 for this game because I hide in my car like a rattle snake hides under a rock and pounced in the 7 minutes Harrahs dealt that on Sunday night. To survive at this I really try to make myself like a guy said in the movie "The Town".....I'm part of the no F around crew except there isn't any crew. The no f around crew has to be the same on the back side of this move. And if Sixth Sense is telling you the game could be a PK and if Fez and his sharp friends are telling you they wouldn't bet -3+107 I'm imploring you to raise your goals on NE if that is the side you want to bet. The no f around crew needs NE too before kick off but it is pretty evident from a betting perspective, handicapping perspective,etc. that to have a good bet on NE the no f around crew needs better than -2.5 and needs better better than -130 ML.

[QUOTE=anthony;50454]I see no reason to get down on Ted. He's been a contributor here and there's good information in his posts. If he's not one of your faves, that's cool. But I'll speak up for him.[/QUOTE] Fair enough Anthony, I'm sure he's a nice guy and seems likeable enough from what I've heard on the podcats et al but just not sure I would take his betting/handicapping advice above any random poster here.