WHy the SB is going to close 2 to 2.5 IMO.............

I always hear the "DONT OVER-REACT!!!" stuff from all. BULLSHIT!! Don't over-react to random noise, YES. DO OVER REACT to a KEY piece of data. The odds openers just aren't as good at the bettors. It makes sense. It's not THEIR money. We all made NE -3.5 to -4.5 as our predicted line before Sunday. PRIOR to the games I met with Johnny Avello, and a guy from the media and he made the number 4.5, I said 3.5 I thought was a better number. Then, the Gmen play a bad game @sf, Ne a bad one vs. Balt. HOWEVER. THe gmen were in a "mother of all bad spot" situation, off the Packer upset. 0-12 SU trend bad. Make it 1-12. Meanwhile, the Pats fell on their face, escaped with Luck, AND got their only real playmaker exit with a boot on his foot. IMMEDIATELY I was ready to pound Giants +3.5.........and I DID exactly that. It was clear to me the line HAD to be lowered to 3, and likley even less. Any naysayers out there, I'm MORE than happy to show a bet I made on the gmen BEFORE THE LINE MOVED, before there was any push downward for a sizable amount. Ok, you all say, WHERE THE HELL WAS THE POST ON IT??? Well, it can Sunday night, after I frantically finished gobbling 3.5s.............. but 3.5-120 was still there in Vegas and Offshore, and I'm sure more than a few got in then........In fact, I think 3.5 -120 was in Vegas unti about 10:30 am.......

Have to agree as I had no problem getting good money at 3.5 -120 and +140 and I usually struggle to get Fezz numbers.

It's all in timing. I usually am not on the right side of it, but this time I was. 3.5 -120 was available off shore when Fez posted it.

The first strike against the theory has been leveled by NE bettors. My confidence shaken as Pinnacle creeps back to -147 and bettors do indeed step in and lay -2.5 on NE. The no f around crew might have f'd around and missed the chance to lay -2.5? I don't know. The bargain now is -135 ML in Nevada and that can be duplicated at Matchbook I think for offshore bettors. I want to beat -130 and really am hoping for -120. Am I sniffing something? Or are the NE bettors stepping in and ready to be swamped again by another avalanche of Giants until this game does get to -2? I just don't think +3 can stand as a number it is just too clearly of value for big bettors to be on the Giants even at +3-120. That is not me talking that is just sharp bettors like Fezzik in this thread that I'm reading or whose opinions I've looked at. Sixth Sense is another one in this thread. But the first salvo was thrown on that theory today. We'll see where it goes now. But I guess I put myself in the corner at least that laying -135 or even -125 just don't seem like good bets. Pinnacle is -147 right now on NE just can't imagine wanting to lay anywhere near that on NE in this game. So I guess it sort of is my own opinion not just me copying big money sharp bettors.

I think the key to the game is the Patriot's porous pass defense, coupled with the Giants' more-than-capable passing game. I just don't see the Patriots being able to stop New York because of that dynamic, especially in a dome. And also especially, since the Giants do have a bit of balance with Bradshaw/Jacobs so that the Pats can't just drop everyone back in coverage. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Brady's top receiving threat is a little banged up right now. I'm sure the Pats will get their points as well, but they'll have a tough chore keeping pace with the Giants, especially if New York can mount a decent pass rush. I really disagree strongly with the "value disappeared when the Giants dropped to +3" theory. Just because it opened +3.5 and then dropped into a key number, it doesn't mean there wasn't still value with Giants +3. They probably deserve to be favored in this game; the matchups certainly dictate that. The reason the Pats are favored in this game IMHO is because of their lofty reputation (and corresponding 13-3 record), coupled with the fact that the Giants squeaked into the playoffs and had to start from the wildcard round. The Patriots are "supposed" to be favored. That doesn't mean they should be.

The Giants' offensive line is offensive. I don't think enough is being made with that. Do the Giants' routes take a long time to develop? Can Eli throw quickly? That's the key to whether the Giants can score enough to win this game.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;50563]The Giants' offensive line is offensive. I don't think enough is being made with that. Do the Giants' routes take a long time to develop? Can Eli throw quickly? That's the key to whether the Giants can score enough to win this game.[/QUOTE] IMHO - I think they can score enough -- just won't score last NE 27 -25 gl

I think the Giants should win this game. They are clearly the better (esp on defense) balanced team and, playing to their potential unlike the Pats. But, the Pats may take it with the last possession. They are certainly capable.