Winless teams off a bye

Winless teams off a bye I have seen some stats posted in other forums this week on winless teams off a bye. I think Fezzik has mentioned this trend in the past. Does anyone know if these trends are true? I would like to verify with an ATS database if possible... can anyone suggest one? I normally don't follow trends but this one makes logical sense and is hard to ignore. Here is what I found: Couple solid trends for week 6 21-2 ATS (91% last 20 years) Play on any winless team of at least 0-4 that is coming off a bye. Over the last 20 years this trend is 21-2 ATS. Even more impressive is that the 2 ATS losses were each by 1 point. Last year the Bills and Panthers each covered under this model against the Ravens and 49ers.

This is a good one, as is teams with a winning record heading into a bye the last bye week. (This week that is Week 11. Normally it is Week 10.)

Winless teams coming off a bye are good wagers as are winless teams, in general, when getting points from week six on. There are other parameters that apply to this but basically winless teams are usually getting value, because they are terrible, may be over looked by their opponent because they are terrible and are focused because they need to win that initial game.

Does anyone have any data regarding winless teams in their first game with a new head coach? (Typically this coach replacement happens during the bye week, right? Seems that there may not be a statistically significant sample size because it doesn't happen often, but when in this industry do we ever have something statistically significant.) I almost think that the coaching replacement puts too much of a lens on the game when it happens during a bye week, meaning you bet the winless team unless it is a new head coach's first game with them.

winless teams off a bye after week 5 i think and big home chalk heading into a bye are good bets ons stl, mia cin, ne ne line having been driven down to even better numbers i understand why bettors are on dallas (rested off a bye, played 10 straight close games...) but it's hard not to take the home chalk here in a high scoring game

Make that 21-3 ATS for winless teams off a bye after St. Louis laid a giant turd at Lambeau. Miami is up next.

Now 21-4. Or is it 2-0 last 2?? At what point is the trend broken??

by all reports miami did not use much the of the byeweek to do much , players went on holiday or something . - got the backend of this from commentary. can anybody confirm this

The performances by St. Louis and Miami were so vomit inducing terrible. Coming off a bye they scored a combined 9 pts with no TDs and went 0-6 in the red zone. My eyes started hurting from watching the ineptitude and I feel dumber today for watching those performances. Bkeiller-- how about a new trend... teams are 1-0 ATS in 2011 if they are competing in Suck for Luck and your coach is a weekend at bernie's corpse who wears sunglass at night? This trend can't lose.

Under the new collective bargaining agreement teams must get 5 straight days off on their bye week. Therefore no added advantage coming out of a bye. Wish I had read about this before I lost on the Dolphins and Rams.