Good evening. This month's newsletter states that playing 9/6 JoB perfectly at the 4Q would cost about $6 theoretical to earn 500 points. At $8 coin-in per point, I calculate about $18-19. Trying to learn more about vp, what factor(s) am I misunderstanding to calculate expected value? Thanks!
Originally posted by: Brian Gardner
Good evening. This month's newsletter states that playing 9/6 JoB perfectly at the 4Q would cost about $6 theoretical to earn 500 points. At $8 coin-in per point, I calculate about $18-19. Trying to learn more about vp, what factor(s) am I misunderstanding to calculate expected value? Thanks!
You are forgetting to add back the the slot club points.
Originally posted by: Jerry Ice 33
You are forgetting to add back the the slot club points.
- Cash: 40 Points = $1 (0.3125%)
Actually, since you earn 0.625% in comps for that $4000 coin-in, you have an expected gain if you play perfectly. And as far as I'm aware, you keep your points when you cash in the promo and get the 30/30; that's been the case with every other 4Q promo.
Breakdown: expected loss: $19 (as you correctly calculated); cash back $12.50 ($1 per 40 points earned, @ 500 points), and $25 in comps ($2 per 40 points earned).
So: (37.50-19.00, for a net gain of $18.50).
LVA stated it incorrecty. The proper way to calculate "theo" is to first consider only the result of the play, and not any benefits gained. So, "theo" for the play is minus $19. The primary reason to do this is that many benefits from promos, etc. can't be precisely calculated in dollars and could even be somewhat subjective (what's a free room worth to you?). I figure room and food comps at 80% of face value.
But as I said, you'll get back $37.50 in cash and comps, and then you'll get $60 more. Best deal in town, actually.
Good to know. Greatly appreciated!
