Who makes it, who doesn't? We have no clue, but it's fun to discuss.

We're thinking about who makes it through COVID-19 and who doesn't in the travel industry. Feel free to share your thoughts.

https://wp.me/paXdM9-MO

Mike

I cant speak to balance sheets....but as someone who has worked in both the airline and resort sectors I can speak to who has the most pain in store.    

Airlines - most of the big airlines make almost no money flying domestic - certainly in coach.    Delta makes almost nothing getting you from Atlanta to New York.     New York to London?  Thats their bread and butter.   And thats what is not coming back any time soon.     The discount airlines: (Southwest, ALaska, Jet Blue) they actually know how to make money flying domestic routes.     Their flights will get passengers more quickly which will allow them to return to profitability.   I cant speak to who has the most cash on hand to weather the storm  

And here's the other kicker - business class is going to take a hit going forward.  One of the permanent changes will be less business travel in favor of ZOOM meetings.    Thats a big problem for the big players - not the Southwest  and Frontier.

I'm not investing in any airlines right now - but if you had to pick the ones that recover the fastest go for the discounters and leisure airlines.   Stay away from the big guys.

Hotels - most of the Hotel companies have a franchise model.  Those franchisers will get hurt alot more than the parent company who predominantly sits back and collects royalties.    But like the airlines, the hotels that are popular with vacationers will recover more quickly than the ones that cater to business.    I wouldn't touch Marriott regardless of their balance sheet.    Wyndham Hotels and some of the Resort companies might be good bargains now.   

Rental cars:  I have no idea.    Word has it they are all cash poor.   But ridesharing is suddenly less popular due to social distancing.  So Maybe that helps AVIS / HERTZ...   But  less business travel cant be good for them going forward either..    WHo knows?

All forms of mass transportation will be much less popular until a vaccine is developed. Airlines, cruise lines, trains, buses---all will take a huge hit, in many cases fatal.

We're seeing states open up and people floching outside despite clear evidence that doing so is foolhardy. A second wave of deaths, maybe worse than the first, is inevitable, and the public will have very little appetite for being in any kind of gathering after that.

I expect the restaurant industry to bend but not break. Those restaurants that are best able to adapt to takeout will be the mist successful. Sitting in a crowded room, sipping your latte, won't seem very attractive once you find out that the guy who you were sharing a table with died.

I also expect a seismic societal shift as a result of this pandemic, with the iron-fisted rule of the rich being profoundly challenged. I can't say exactly how that might affect the travel industry.

Doesn't look good for Hertz

My guess is that the first airline that reinstates snack/beverage service will see a spike in customers/business/profit.  C'mon, Southwest.  You take the lead.

IMHO, discontinuing snack/beverage service is a mistake.  Isn't there something about fluid intake being important in preventing DVT on flights?  At least hand some bottled/capped beverages.   

Snacks...meh, they aren't that great anyway, but beverages are needed.  They could modify the processes, perhaps discontinue alcoholic options--those require more human to human close contact, but at least provide soft drinks/water/coffee.

I hope the no beverage service rule is eased in due time. 

I would have no problem with the "no beverage" rule if, after screening, one could purchase beverages at a reasonable price in the gate areas. 

Southwest now says they will be giving passingers a bottle of water with a straw and a "mixed snack" packet on the plane, if the flight distance exceeds 240 miles.  Or 250.  Something like that.

American isn't serving drinks unless the flight is over 2,000 miles.  Also, having flown this weekend, American made NO attempt to socially distance passengers from each other.  Flight attendants were socially distant from passengers, though, but any row not next to a flight attendant was FULL.  Disgusting.  At least everyone had on masks, passengers and flight attendants. 

Not sure if I can put up with 8 hours of a face mask on a flight. 

That time frame includes entering & leaving the terminals, TSA & waiting to be called for the flight & of course the 6 hour flight from NYC.