Trip Report
The common saying about insanity is that it’s doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. It’s time for me to embrace sanity. For the last several years I’ve lost steadily at gambling. I focused on three games: full pay video poker, blackjack, and poker (low limit). Not only have I lost, I’ve lost steadily, consistently, and at a rate significantly above the casino theoretical. For example, my long run loss rate at FPVP has been about 16%. (Note there is one game I play that has an expected return below 100% but it’s progressive so the actual theoretical yield can be in the low 99% or be over 100% depending on the jackpots). Every trip I can remember, my loss rate would end up between 12% loss to 20% loss.
I like playing live poker, but it’s frustrating. I play for hours and will win about 1 hand an hour. What I’ve finally realized, I can only play once per trip then I’ve got to give it up otherwise it eats up too much time while delivering almost no pleasure in the end. Here is an example of my last two poker sessions. Both lasted about 3 hours.
The first session had three hands that I played strong. I had pocket 7’s. The flop is 10-10-7. I bet hard all the way to the river where another 10 hits. I lay the hand down. The only other person in the hand shows her hand and asks if she gets the bonus (no, you have to have a pocket pair for the $50 quad bonus). I flop a set (I don’t remember of what). A straight and a flush hit the river. I lay the hand down as two people bet and raise and re-raise. The flush beat the straight. I would have been third. The third hand I had top pair. Someone else had the same top pair but no kicker. The kicker was paired on the river.
The second session started well with winning a couple of hands in the first hour to put me up. However, the next two hours I would win one very small pot. During that two hours would be the only time in both sessions I would have the best starting hands: aces and kings. I get pocket Kings, pocket Aces, and pocket Kings. All three lose on the river. The first kings lost to Ace-10 when the guy flopped a 10, but hit the Ace on the river (I laid it down). The Aces lost to 9-5 (yes) when the flop was 9-8-7, and another 9 came on the river. I laid it down. The last pocket Kings were brutal because I was playing against a drunk who bet recklessly. He straddled. I raised. He re-raised. The flop was Q-x-x. I bet, he raised. Putting him on either nothing or a queen, I reraised and he slowed down. This is how it went until the river when I bet and he raised $2 going all in. He had Q-3. The 3 came on the river and knocked out my Kings. I was a 90% favorite in all three of those hands. To lose all three is a 1 in a 1,000 shot. But that seems to happen to me way too often. So, simple solution, I don’t play poker much any more.
Blackjack has been frustrating. It used to be all I played two decades ago. Then, starting a number of years ago, I could never win. I’d sit at a table and lose about 2 our of every 3 hands. I’d lose 10 bets about every half an hour. I had one stretch where I lost 17 bets in a row. If I was playing $10 a hand, I’d typically lose $100 in 30 minutes or less. It’s been better more recently. I’ve had a number of times where I didn’t lose my entire buy-in. And I had a couple of times where I broke even.
Video poker has been the most frustrating. A few years ago I decided to put a cap on my losses each day. I would lose no more than 2,000 credits in one day (half a Royal). I had trips where I would hit that limit almost every day. This trip, after staying with that limit, I decided to drop the stop-loss and really go at it with FPVP. The result, in the last two days of the trip I played about 8,000 hands. I wagered about 40,000 credits. I lost 10,000 credits which means my loss rate was 25%. During this time period, I got four aces twice while playing Double Bonus. I got 4 deuces playing DW. And I got a Wild Royal playing KB FP Joker. Those big hits weren’t enough to offset losses on those machines. Those hits are worth 3,100 credits. It cut the loss from 32% to 25%.
I went at it with the mind set that every time I sat down at a machine or table, this time it would be different. But it never was. Poker, blackjack, FPVP, every time I sat down, I lost. Friends have been telling me for years, it’s a bad streak. It’ll stop.
It finally hit me when I was playing DWFP, and I was calculating loss rate as I played, and it was huge. And I was in the territory where even if I got 4 deuces, I wouldn’t be in the win territory. I hadn’t been playing 2 hours and I was already down about 1,500 credits. Then I caught the 4 deuces – the first time in many years. And I was still down a little less than 10%. I lose at such a fast and consistent rate, hitting 4 deuces in DWFP in about 1,000 hands isn’t enough to put me into the win column. And I realized, I’ll never win at this.
Hence from now on, when I sit down to gamble, I’m going to assume I’ll lose. To expect anything else would be insane. If I don’t want to lose, I won’t gamble.
Losing has not been a financial issue. I don’t like losing the money, but I never gambled with money I couldn’t afford to lose. It’s the emotional cost. Knowing that every time I start I’ll lose makes me wonder what I’m doing. Why am I doing this? I’m not sure how long I’d continue to play tennis if I lost badly every time I played.
I still travel to Vegas, but I’ll focus on hanging with friends, drinking beer, eating food, seeing sites, catching shows. It’ll be a vacation. I’ll read in my room, watch a sunset, and catch a movie. Gambling may not be in the mix at all.
The common saying about insanity is that it’s doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. It’s time for me to embrace sanity. For the last several years I’ve lost steadily at gambling. I focused on three games: full pay video poker, blackjack, and poker (low limit). Not only have I lost, I’ve lost steadily, consistently, and at a rate significantly above the casino theoretical. For example, my long run loss rate at FPVP has been about 16%. (Note there is one game I play that has an expected return below 100% but it’s progressive so the actual theoretical yield can be in the low 99% or be over 100% depending on the jackpots). Every trip I can remember, my loss rate would end up between 12% loss to 20% loss.
I like playing live poker, but it’s frustrating. I play for hours and will win about 1 hand an hour. What I’ve finally realized, I can only play once per trip then I’ve got to give it up otherwise it eats up too much time while delivering almost no pleasure in the end. Here is an example of my last two poker sessions. Both lasted about 3 hours.
The first session had three hands that I played strong. I had pocket 7’s. The flop is 10-10-7. I bet hard all the way to the river where another 10 hits. I lay the hand down. The only other person in the hand shows her hand and asks if she gets the bonus (no, you have to have a pocket pair for the $50 quad bonus). I flop a set (I don’t remember of what). A straight and a flush hit the river. I lay the hand down as two people bet and raise and re-raise. The flush beat the straight. I would have been third. The third hand I had top pair. Someone else had the same top pair but no kicker. The kicker was paired on the river.
The second session started well with winning a couple of hands in the first hour to put me up. However, the next two hours I would win one very small pot. During that two hours would be the only time in both sessions I would have the best starting hands: aces and kings. I get pocket Kings, pocket Aces, and pocket Kings. All three lose on the river. The first kings lost to Ace-10 when the guy flopped a 10, but hit the Ace on the river (I laid it down). The Aces lost to 9-5 (yes) when the flop was 9-8-7, and another 9 came on the river. I laid it down. The last pocket Kings were brutal because I was playing against a drunk who bet recklessly. He straddled. I raised. He re-raised. The flop was Q-x-x. I bet, he raised. Putting him on either nothing or a queen, I reraised and he slowed down. This is how it went until the river when I bet and he raised $2 going all in. He had Q-3. The 3 came on the river and knocked out my Kings. I was a 90% favorite in all three of those hands. To lose all three is a 1 in a 1,000 shot. But that seems to happen to me way too often. So, simple solution, I don’t play poker much any more.
Blackjack has been frustrating. It used to be all I played two decades ago. Then, starting a number of years ago, I could never win. I’d sit at a table and lose about 2 our of every 3 hands. I’d lose 10 bets about every half an hour. I had one stretch where I lost 17 bets in a row. If I was playing $10 a hand, I’d typically lose $100 in 30 minutes or less. It’s been better more recently. I’ve had a number of times where I didn’t lose my entire buy-in. And I had a couple of times where I broke even.
Video poker has been the most frustrating. A few years ago I decided to put a cap on my losses each day. I would lose no more than 2,000 credits in one day (half a Royal). I had trips where I would hit that limit almost every day. This trip, after staying with that limit, I decided to drop the stop-loss and really go at it with FPVP. The result, in the last two days of the trip I played about 8,000 hands. I wagered about 40,000 credits. I lost 10,000 credits which means my loss rate was 25%. During this time period, I got four aces twice while playing Double Bonus. I got 4 deuces playing DW. And I got a Wild Royal playing KB FP Joker. Those big hits weren’t enough to offset losses on those machines. Those hits are worth 3,100 credits. It cut the loss from 32% to 25%.
I went at it with the mind set that every time I sat down at a machine or table, this time it would be different. But it never was. Poker, blackjack, FPVP, every time I sat down, I lost. Friends have been telling me for years, it’s a bad streak. It’ll stop.
It finally hit me when I was playing DWFP, and I was calculating loss rate as I played, and it was huge. And I was in the territory where even if I got 4 deuces, I wouldn’t be in the win territory. I hadn’t been playing 2 hours and I was already down about 1,500 credits. Then I caught the 4 deuces – the first time in many years. And I was still down a little less than 10%. I lose at such a fast and consistent rate, hitting 4 deuces in DWFP in about 1,000 hands isn’t enough to put me into the win column. And I realized, I’ll never win at this.
Hence from now on, when I sit down to gamble, I’m going to assume I’ll lose. To expect anything else would be insane. If I don’t want to lose, I won’t gamble.
Losing has not been a financial issue. I don’t like losing the money, but I never gambled with money I couldn’t afford to lose. It’s the emotional cost. Knowing that every time I start I’ll lose makes me wonder what I’m doing. Why am I doing this? I’m not sure how long I’d continue to play tennis if I lost badly every time I played.
I still travel to Vegas, but I’ll focus on hanging with friends, drinking beer, eating food, seeing sites, catching shows. It’ll be a vacation. I’ll read in my room, watch a sunset, and catch a movie. Gambling may not be in the mix at all.
