Vegas Free-for-All - $300K through $1 x 10 play QuickQuads machine...

vpman80

May 14, 2011
6:53pm

This is from a discussion in the Royal Flush thread. I don't want to turn the Royal Flush thread into a strat thread so here we go...

Quote

Originally posted by: fedomalley

Quote
Originally posted by: slapinfunk
Quote
Originally posted by: Packerfan

Took a real shellacking on Mother's Day, but this will help. Saw the highest single day coin-in (by far) when the regular next to me on the QQ machines had over $300,000 through playing $1 10-play Quick Quads... not a single royal. Eewwww.

Good Luck to all...

Pack

Congrats on the Royal!

But about this post:

$300K through $1 10-Play QQ is not that many hands... each push of the button is $60, so only 5,000 dealt hands. And in QQ, you may make some holds differently than you would in other games.

50,000 hands were drawn to... but still only 5,000 hands. Need to play a bit more hands before seeing a royal, even on a multi line.

Sorry Slap but I beg to differ....

I can't say that I've actually seen the RF cycle on a QQ schedule. Also, I don't know what specific game this person was playing in a QQ version. Nonetheless, my best guess is that a RF should fall into a 40-46K cycle.

Subject to correction, there is no distinction that a RF cycle is different depending on the number of "dealt hands" vs. "hands drawn to". This person played 50K hands which is within one RF cycle. Mind you, this doesn't mean that it had to happen but that it would have been the statistical norm.

There are much smarter people than I on this subject (actually on most subjects but that's another story!). If you disagree with this or fail to see the reasoning, I might suggest cutting and pasting this on the FFA or Gambling board for others to comment. No reason to tie up RF porn with an esoteric discussion on math and statistics.

Dan

I don't agree... The person was dealt 5,000 hands... and drew to 50,000 hands.

During the 5,000 hands he was "dealt," he may have only had a couple of hands to draw to a royal. Maybe only a few hands where holding an AK suited happened. Plus, we don't know if he was playing with "proper strategy."

I am no expert on this as well, but I am sure someone will chime in with the info we are looking for...

So, how many "dealt" hands would you have to play on a 10 play machine to expect a royal?

arcimedes

May 15, 2011
2:09am

Block User

The strategy changes for QQs does not impact RF draws to any great extent. They deal with holds for low cards which are the only ones that can generate QQs. For more info:

https://www.videopoker.com/quickquads/

mrmarcus12LVA

May 15, 2011
2:10am

Block User

The royal cycle would remain. At $1 per hand, it would still be the $45K number (or whatever it is for that paytable). But there would be significantly higher variance, so much so that $300,000 without a royal shouldn't be shocking.

There is no reason to propose that one 5,000 hand sample will contain more nor fewer royal draws than any other 5,000 hand sample. It's just a matter of variance.

vpman80

May 15, 2011
9:35am

Block User

What I'm wondering more is, how many total "plays" is it expected to get a royal on a multi line machine.

Does it go by how many times you press the "Max Bet" button, or does it go by how many times you hit the "Draw" button?

I mean, if it goes by the "Draw" button, you should see a royal every 440 hands on a 100 play machine... I know LOL sample size, but when I was playing the VPdotcom tournament playing 100 play QQ's, I played 20 sessions (4,000 dealt hands, 400,000 drawn hands) and saw 1 or 2 royals...

snidely333

May 15, 2011
10:08am

Block User

I played 100 hands on a 100 play machine and hit a royal.

It's neither how many times you hit the bet or draw button. It's how many hands you're playing. 40k single play hands or 400 hundred play hands should be about the same probability to hit a royal.

mrmarcus12LVA

May 15, 2011
10:52am

Block User

The acorn doesn't fall far from the tree.

The chance you'll get a royal as your next result is 1 in 45,000 (or whatever the actual odds are, given your strategy). The chance that you'll get that as a result within your next 10 results is ten times that, or 1 in 4,500. It doesn't matter whether those ten hands are done in SERIES or in PARALLEL.

How hard can it possibly be, to understand that no one can foresee the future, and that the results from the machine are RANDOM. I.e. you CANNOT predict the next result from the last 10, nor the last 1,000, nor the last 1,000,000.

I.e. you WON'T get a royal when you "should" nor when it's "expected." You will receive a RANDOM number of royals distributed among your results, with a mean and a standard deviation. It would be somewhat unusual, but not unexpected, to play 300,000 hands IN SERIES OR IN PARALLEL, without one.

And none of us can be blamed for your poor reading comprehension skills.

vpman80

May 15, 2011
11:20am

Block User

I understand that no one can foresee the future... I understand all results from a machine are random.

I don't expect a royal if I have play 43,999 hands on my next one... I know it could be one every 200000000000 hands or one every 20 hands... thank you...

You may be missing my point...

When you get your DEALT hand on a multi play machine, I don't think you could simply adjust the result 10 times because it all depends on the hand that was dealt to you.

If you are dealt a hand where you hold something that contains part of a Royal Flush A, A K, A K Q, etc... then yes you have as many more chances as multiple lines you are playing to hit a royal... But those are the ONLY instances you could possibly have any IMPROVED chances of hitting a royal on a multi line machine.

If you are dealt T T on a Multi line machine, those extra 2, 4, 9, 49, or 99 hands you are drawing to do not help increase your chances of a royal.

SO... with that being said... The only time playing on a multi line machine can possibly increase or your hands be counted towards getting a royal are the specific hands where you are DEALT and HOLD only A, K, Q, J, 10, in any combination.... or holding nothing at all...

Edit to add:

On a single play machine... Based on "Dealt" hands, what is the number of hands you are expected to be dealt something that you could draw to a royal?

On a multi play machine... you are still going to be "Dealt" the same number of hands that could be dealt to a royal. but those hands you would be able to adjust your chances of getting a royal by the number plays on the multi line machine you are playing...

snidely333

May 15, 2011
12:08pm

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: slapinfunk
I understand that no one can foresee the future... I understand all results from a machine are random.

I don't expect a royal if I have play 43,999 hands on my next one... I know it could be one every 200000000000 hands or one every 20 hands... thank you...

You may be missing my point...

When you get your DEALT hand on a multi play machine, I don't think you could simply adjust the result 10 times because it all depends on the hand that was dealt to you.

If you are dealt a hand where you hold something that contains part of a Royal Flush A, A K, A K Q, etc... then yes you have as many more chances as multiple lines you are playing to hit a royal... But those are the ONLY instances you could possibly have any IMPROVED chances of hitting a royal on a multi line machine.

If you are dealt T T on a Multi line machine, those extra 2, 4, 9, 49, or 99 hands you are drawing to do not help increase your chances of a royal.

SO... with that being said... The only time playing on a multi line machine can possibly increase or your hands be counted towards getting a royal are the specific hands where you are DEALT and HOLD only A, K, Q, J, 10, in any combination.... or holding nothing at all...

Edit to add:

On a single play machine... Based on "Dealt" hands, what is the number of hands you are expected to be dealt something that you could draw to a royal?

On a multi play machine... you are still going to be "Dealt" the same number of hands that could be dealt to a royal. but those hands you would be able to adjust your chances of getting a royal by the number plays on the multi line machine you are playing...

Yes, with a multi-play machine you will have less starting hands that are "royal friendly" but you have a much better chance to fill them. The probability will even out.

vpman80

May 15, 2011
12:15pm

Block User

By how much though? Is it enough to really benifit?

MoneyLA

May 15, 2011
1:12pm

Block User

Playing a multiple line machine does not increase nor decrease your chances for a royal flush overall.

Indeed, unless you hold cards that could lead to a royal, you can be completely shut out of the possibility of getting a royal. For example:

When holding A of spades only, you have opened yourself to getting a royal.

When holding 22 only, youll never get a royal.

But that is the same whether you play a hundred line machine or a single line machine.

When playing a single line machine and holding just an A you have a shot at a royal, but on a single line machine when you hold 22 youll never see a royal.

However, you could "force more royals" on a multi line machine by holding only cards that could be part of a royal. And in fact, you could also do this on a single line machine.

This is why every book I ever read says playing a multi line machine changes nothing in odds or payback when compared to playing a single line machine. To be exact: a 9/6 job multi line machine is merely the same as playing one hundred individual 9/6 job hands. hence, you do not adjust your strategy for playing a multiple line machine.

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