Belmont Stakes

1. Mubtaahij_______10-1
2. Tale of Verve_____15-1
3. Madefromlucky___12-1
4. Frammento______30-1
5. American Pharoah_3-5
6. Frosted__________5-1
7. Keen Ice________20-1
8. Materiality_______6-1

DonDiego hates betting favorites. DonDiego really hates betting favorites at 3-to-5.

The odds are pretty telling. After American Pharaoh, Frosted, and Materiality, . . . all the other entries are long-shots. DonDiego likes betting long shots; but in a field of 8, long shots are longer long shots.

After possible morning showers the weather at the track should be excellent for the race. DonDiego opines this favors a come-from-behind steed.

So:
DonDiego says mortgage the house and bet Frosted.

Or if one really wants to retire early, bet some exotics with Frosted and Materiality.

And if one really must bet a long-shot, . . . consider Tale of Verve if the weather turns and the track is muddy, . . . or Keen Ice. Oh and if one really, really wants to retire early and well put 'em in exotics too - but don't expect to win.

"Place it on Madefromlucky."

This is the first time since I watched Secretariate run away with the triple crown that I think I will see it again. And yeah 3/5 sucks. Only money to be made is in the specialty bets or if perchance a long shot wins. If American Pharoah gets a clean break and runs clean he should win. When I was training horses we always knew any horse could get beaten at anytime by any other horse. Just happens.

My "home" casino has a Belmont promotion. Earn $3.00 comp dollars ($525 coin in) on slots, and if American Pharaoh wins, you get $50.00 FSP.

Thinking this may be an "advantage play" by betting on the other entries to insure a $30.00+ payback, with a cash value of $40.00 on the FSP. Only difficulties with that are calculating the odds properly, and wagering the appropriate amount on the other 8 horses, and than I "may" win a whole $10.00 or so. Not quite worth the effort at the time I'm writing this.

There is no "Don't" bet, (the field without AP), I checked with my bookmaking friends (two), and also with one site.

We do not know if American Pharoah is a great horse. That remains to be seen.
But, this crop of three year olds are not that impressive. Pharoah has just been so much more impressive than the other horses.
In a mile and half race, I am always wary of fresh horses. So, at 3-5, I could not play the favorite.
Although I think Pharoah could get the job done, my stimulus would be on a fresh, live long shot at about 12-1

There are so many horses who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown to only lose it on that long stretch at the Belmont. The unfair thing in the Belmont is that not only is it the longest race of the three (1.5 miles) but you have at least one trainer who had horses entered in the Kentucky Derby and did not run in the Preakness, meaning they are well rested.

Exactly so.

To take advantage of that "unfairness" DonDiego suggests embracing Frosted and Materiality.

Is 'Tale of Verve' a mudder? Was his mother a mudder?

I abhor betting favorites no matter how good they are. While I think AP is a special horse, if I were betting I would play Materiality to win and a bred for the distance trifecta of Materiality, Keen Ice and Mubtaahij.

I'd do a $2 exacta back-wheel of American Pharoah, (all/AP) which could pay decently should AP come in second to a long shot. $14.00 spent on that.

However, in recent times when those triple crown contenders have faltered, they've fallen several horses back, totally out of the money.

Anyway, I'd also have to put $20 to win on AP, just so as not to have to live with the fact that I didn't place a bet on a triple crown winner. $20.00 there.

I'll only be watching on TV, but if I were betting, that is what I'd do.