Belmont Stakes - - - Pick-a-Winner/Place-a-Bet

So, OK, . . . there's not gonna be a Triple Crown Winner; DonDiego didn't expect one.

But, . . . there's still a race to be run and money to be made on the ½-mile Belmont Stakes at 18:35EDT on Saturday, 11 June 2011 ! ! !

Here's the early line, from the post out

1. Master of Hounds, Garrett Gomez, 10-1
2. Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, 20-1
3. Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr., 20-1
4. Santiva, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1
5. Brilliant Speed, Joel Rosario, 15-1
6. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 4-1
7. Monzon, Jose Lezcano, 30-1
8. Prime Cut, Edgar Prado, 15-1
9. Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, 2-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
11. Isn't He Perfect, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
12. Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, 9-2

Unfortunately, poor old DonDiego agrees with the oddsmaker that (in alphabetical order) Animal Kingdom, Nehro, and Shackleford are the class of the field. No really good overlay.

DonDiego liked Nehro in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second, . . . and he really likes him to win the Belmont stakes after a 5 week rest. He'd like more than 4-to-1, but he'll take it.

If one seeks higher odds, . . . as DonDiego likes to do, . . . Brilliant Speed, Master of Hounds, and Santiva are worth a flyer. DonDiego opines Mucho Macho Man is likely played out.

DonDiego's thoughts on Thursday:
__DonDiego likes slots 4,5, and 6
__Big Place-Bet on Nehro
__Mid-sized quinellas with Nehro and/or Animal Kingdom and/or but probably not Shackleford
__Small long-shots on Brilliant Speed and Santiva. Maybe Master of Hounds if odds go higher; DonDiego is liking the Irish horse Master of Hounds but not liking his post-position.
__Maybe small-quinellas with Nehro and above long-shots
__Watch where the late-money goes, and maybe go with it if it's significant
__Likely Finish: 9 - 6 - 4 - 1

I like the way Animal Kingdom closes. He didn't seal the deal in the Preakness, but he's still a good closer and if they ride him right, he should get the money.

10. Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1

I expected a Triple Crown winner

Animal Kingdom was and still is better than any of these IMHO,,the only race I thought he could possibly lose, he did and exactly what had to happen in the Preakness DID happen. Anyone with 1/2 a brain would know that Shakleford would be on the lead. In the days leading up to the Preakness, Pimlico was heavily speed biased. I figured he would either win wire to wire or be totally out of the money.( I went with totally out of the money, ooops, ANYONE HAVE 1/2 A BRAIN TO SPARE??? )

In addition, the other thing that HAD to happen was Animal Kingdom breaks badly out of the gate and is far back. (he was probably 20 lengths back at least at the quarter)That was what did him in. Shackleford ( a speed horse) ran his ass off in a shorter race on a speed biased track and only won by a diminishing 1/2 length with EVERYTHING going his way.

Nehro ran a great race in the Derby, stayed close to the pace the entire trip, took the lead and got caught by AK. He exerted a TON of energy as I don't think he was ever more than 5 or so lengths off the lead the whole race and displayed a courageous stretch drive. Can he rate a little bit better? I don't think he wants to be the one to go at it with Shackleford. Is there a rabbit in the field? I hope so!!!! As DD ,mentioned I too like the fact that Nehro has had the time off. This is a VERY VERY good horse. If anyone has a shot to beat AK, its this horse.

With Animal Kingdom, I really think Motion would have a lot to talk about with the owners considering a horse of this caliber if he wasn't "all systems go". I really believe that this is a "special" horse. I'm thinking he's ready. I'm thinking, they're thinking, BREEDERS CUP (at Churchill..I will be there),in Nov. I'm thinking this is the last time we see this horse run until late August (TRAVERS?? if so, I am sssooo going to Saratoga)

Of course Shackleford will go on the lead and try to shake them all off but for him to do that out of the 12 hole and to keep on going for a mile and a half is a VERY tall order. I'm just hoping that someone goes on a suicide mission and goes at him. If nobody pressures him the only question will be can he slow the pace by the 1/2 pole and get the distance. I don't see it but stranger things have happened.

Animal Kingdom/Nehro in that order. I will be large to WIN on Animal Kingdom...large exacta box AK/Nehro...

Everyone wants value but I just don't see it in this race. My feeling is these two are much the best. Or maybe the value play is just the exacta box??? hhhhmmmmmmmm...or just ...or just,,,or...maybe I should just bet whatever that guy who bet SHACKLEFORD AND THE EXACTA (Preakness thread) bets???

Well 1--6---9---10 and also ran.

I like a 1-6-9 Exacta and Trifecta box and back it up with a small bet on the 12 across the board. I really liked Master of Hounds at the 10-1 morning line but he is now down to 5-1.

As the gal who had Shackleford to win plus the Exacta on the Preakness, (plus the win on Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby ), I'm still not quite decided what to do to try and finish my "Triple Crown" winning streak. Animal Kingdom is an option - as long as he doesn't get stuck behind everyone else as they start to tire and spread out at the end of the race. I think Nehro has a very good chance - if the track isn't sloppy. And even with a cruddy post position I like Master of Hounds. This race is too long for Shackleford to win, in my opinion. So, FWIW, at this point I'm leaning towards an exacta box with Master Of Hounds & Animal Kingdom, and a Win ticket on Master Of Hounds. If the track looks particularly good in the AM I may substitute Nehro for Animal Kingdom in the Exacta box.

The forecast is not promising for Nehro, . . . 50% chance of thunderstorms from midnight through early morning; 30% chance of isolated storms past dawn; and 50% chance of showers from midday all day long.

OOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPSSSSS!!!!!!

Yeah, that is not a good track today and not favoring closers. The slop benefits Shackleford but that's a looooong way for that horse to go.