Vegas Free-for-All - bob Dancer's new column, new question

bob Dancer's new column, new question

arcimedes

Mar 6, 2011
1:22am

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Keep the correct strategy coming, thank you. Losing 80k to win a 40k car or telling me that you still have 79,700 in your VP bankroll after losing 300 makes no sense. If I operated my business that way I'd be broke pretty quick and laying off employees a lot sooner.

I guess money is still skimming over responses since this issue has been covered many time. You'd think he'd learn. Dancer may have participated in dozens of promotions last year and made lots of money. We do not know as he did not provide that information. One point of the article was to make it clear that no one wins all the time and that looking at individual sessions is not important. What is important is determining whether a player has the advantage. Obviously, that went right over your head.

Once again you are focusing on a single session. Unless you know the big picture your comment is utterly absurd. This is exactly the same you do by claiming any single session is meaningful as in the $300 win or loss. Until you figure out that any single session is worthless in determining what future strategy is best you will forever spout this kind of nonsense.

For example, last year in MN I had 31 losing sessions. In the sessions here in MN (half of my total) I lost an average of $1446. So, by your claims I'm probably a terrible gambler and should stay at home. However, I had my best winning year ever. Focusing on a single session (or two) is just plain nuts.

chefantwon

Mar 6, 2011
2:09am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Quote
Originally posted by: chefantwon
Here's a question for you Arci:

Do you think Dancer could, given a realistic bankroll ($1,000) let him build it up from there to a specified amount. ($10,000) by playing VP. Documenting his progress as he goes?

Or, your friend Singer?

It would be easier at this level than at higher denoms to increase bankroll by 10x. The most +EV games are low denom games like FPDW. You can find all kinds of 1% edges around LV. While $1000 is a little low for quarter play (it should be at least $3000), there's still a fairly good chance of success.

For a good player playing an easy game like FPDW they could easily average 1600 hands/hour playing 2 machines. That is 1600*1.25 = $2000/hour. A 1% edge would be $20/hour. To gain $9000 would take 9000/20 = 450 hours. Assuming a 30 hour/week investment of time you're looking at 15 weeks.

Now, I don't know of many good players that would spend a lot of time on this. Not enough money and pretty boring. Of course, what you really want is about 100 people to do this. Then you would see some failures and some great success stories along with the average result.

If you take a more average player then 800 hands/hour would be more realistic and you should double the time required.

For the bankroll, some folks believe those of us in the middle class have anywhere from $5,000 and up just lying around to gamble with. The truth of the matter that it ranges all over the place, however normally the lower the better. $1,000 is typically the lowest accepted figure for people to have as a bankroll.

As far as using 100 folks for a demo, you would want a very high percentage to be making money. (if not all) If one is trying to show folks that by playing VP, one could make alot of money. Thats why using a small sample size is best. (remember the premise is to show that it can be done, you don't want to throw off your target audiance by showing people who lose)

I was reading through and was thinking 30hrs a wk was alot, then I thought some more. A touch more than 4 hours a day is about right. If I can play poker for 8 to 12 hours a day dealing with everything happening at a table, playing VP at a machine should be one hell of alot easier on the eyes and ears.

30 weeks for $10,000? I would be thinking closer to a year, but I am no expert by any means, so I'll take your word on it. Now if I can get Dancer to bite.

alanleroy

Mar 6, 2011
2:42am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
What is important is determining whether a player has the advantage.

It's more than that. I asked a question in that Dancer Contest thread that no one answered. How many of those high dollar contests does it take for one to enter the realm of the 'long run' as it relates to expected profits?

When the lottery jackpot hits a certain level, it becomes a positive expectation game. So if I invest my 80K gambling bankroll in lottery tickets when the EV turns positive that's a good bet with a strong player advantage....right?

oobiedoobie

Mar 6, 2011
3:28am

Block User

Okay, math question which relates to skill versus luck. 2million video poker players play full time for five years (800 hands per hour, 2000 hours per year, thats 8 million hands total). Assume the volatility of a JoB game.If 1 million played a 101% game and the other million played a 99% game, using the bell curve how many of the adv players would lose money and how many of the disadv players would win?

snidely333

Mar 6, 2011
3:39am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
Okay, math question which relates to skill versus luck. 2million video poker players play full time for five years (800 hands per hour, 2000 hours per year, thats 8 million hands total). Assume the volatility of a JoB game.If 1 million played a 101% game and the other million played a 99% game, using the bell curve how many of the adv players would lose money and how many of the disadv players would win?

Excellent question. I should have the math skills to solve it but it give me a headache to try. I sincerely hope someone posts the answer to this.

arcimedes

Mar 6, 2011
3:50am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: alanleroy

Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
What is important is determining whether a player has the advantage.

Yes, it is more than JUST advantage. Bankroll management is also important. The key component of your question is variance. You will see many advantage players avoid high variance games because of this. As for 80K and the lottery. Your risk of ruin is probably above 99%. So, no reasonable advantage player would do it.

oobiedoobie

Mar 6, 2011
3:53am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
What is important is determining whether a player has the advantage.

It's more than that. I asked a question in that Dancer Contest thread that no one answered. How many of those high dollar contests does it take for one to enter the realm of the 'long run' as it relates to expected profits?

When the lottery jackpot hits a certain level, it becomes a positive expectation game. So if I invest my 80K gambling bankroll in lottery tickets when the EV turns positive that's a good bet with a strong player advantage....right?

When you consider the tax implications, the chances of having to split the jackpot(sometimes multiple ways), and the immediate payment reduction that jackpot has likely never reached EV positive.

mrmarcus12LVA

Mar 6, 2011
3:57am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
Well Marcus, some guy named Chris Ferguson responded to such a challange on Full Tilt poker. (look a page back for info). He put his money where his mouth lies and showed folks he wasn't all talk. You can write all you want, however if your claim to fame is 20 years old, you have an entire generation who looks at you and says and you are who?

And my point, for people who are sharp as a marble, is WHO CARES? Chris Ferguson is one of the best poker players alive, and a millionaire because of it. THAT'S HIS CLAIM TO FAME, not the way he ground out $10K. If you look at a genius, one of the best in the world, and think his $10K on Full Tilt is somehow significant, then I pity you, I really do.

Again I say, is this the playground at second grade, or have I logged onto a Dancer haters anonymous meeting?

arcimedes

Mar 6, 2011
4:02am

Block User

Quote

Not quite that simple. You also need to understand the variance.

The approximate answer is obvious. For reasonable variance games and 8 million hands only a few 99% players would win and only a few 101% players would lose (as with any statistical calculation the numbers are always non-zero). So, if given a choice, why would anyone go with an extremely low chance of success vs. a high chance?

Also, think about what the difference is in real money. For a quarter player you're talking about $10 million dollar investment and a $100K average win for the 101% player. For the 99% you get a $100K loss. Sure, it's over 5 years but I think the fact that an extremely small number of 99% players might beat a couple of 101% players is not a very important issue.

snidely333

Mar 6, 2011
4:09am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Quote
Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
Okay, math question which relates to skill versus luck. 2million video poker players play full time for five years (800 hands per hour, 2000 hours per year, thats 8 million hands total). Assume the volatility of a JoB game.If 1 million played a 101% game and the other million played a 99% game, using the bell curve how many of the adv players would lose money and how many of the disadv players would win?

I'd love to see the normal dist. curves.

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