bob Dancer's new column, new question

Anybody who's not already a millionaire who drops $1500 in a day at a casino is nuts.
Anybody who is already a millionaire and is trying to scratch out a tiny profit at VP is nuts.
Therefore, what does that make you?

To address MrMarcus and the question of why I think Dancer should, in his LVA articles, address an audience rather than relate his biographical adventures that no one can emulate -- well, here goes:

I admit I am not of the blogworld -- my original background was in journalism/non-fiction and writing for an audience. The fact LVA put Dancer's blog here makes it less of a true interpersonal blog, in my opinion, and more of a piece of writing that should find an audience with the LVA readership. Some here might find his articles entertaining thus far. I think the first was okay -- I thought the last one was a mess.

I think if he is selling books to an audience and software and such, and teaching classes, all of which bring people into the serious vp universe, he should provide caveats explaining that his path is probably non-reproducible, if that's the case. Obviously, I haven't read every single thing he's had to say, so maybe he has preached this on occasion. I'm open to correction.

I have been a Dancer fan since way back, but I think he's done a disservice to folks by not mentioning the elephant in the room -- namely that the vp rainforest has dried up. There's too much promotion and not enough, "This really, really sucks compared to 20 years ago, and maybe your time is better spent pursuing other gambling ventures." If all sports betting became 6-to-5, I'd tell people to not do it. Period. It's no longer a good bet.

Here's the tough question, and I do not have an answer. Does Dancer do more good by steering people to discipline and knowing the games than he does harm by using himself as a flagship example of what is achievable, when that success can no longer be duplicated? Put another way, simply, are casino bottom lines better or worse due to the existence of Bob Dancer and his books, software, blogs? This is the big question. Now think about that carefully -- there are a lot of philosophical angles here. I don't know if the answer matters in any ethical sense, but it is a fascinating question.

you should make a new video.

To address MrMarcus and the question of why I think Dancer should, in his LVA articles, address an audience rather than relate his biographical adventures that no one can emulate -- well, here goes:

I admit I am not of the blogworld -- my original background was in journalism/non-fiction and writing for an audience. The fact LVA put Dancer's blog here makes it less of a true interpersonal blog, in my opinion, and more of a piece of writing that should find an audience with the LVA readership. Some here might find his articles entertaining thus far. I think the first was okay -- I thought the last one was a mess.

I think if he is selling books to an audience and software and such, and teaching classes, all of which bring people into the serious vp universe, he should provide caveats explaining that his path is probably non-reproducible, if that's the case. Obviously, I haven't read every single thing he's had to say, so maybe he has preached this on occasion. I'm open to correction.

I have been a Dancer fan since way back, but I think he's done a disservice to folks by not mentioning the elephant in the room -- namely that the vp rainforest has dried up. There's too much promotion and not enough, "This really, really sucks compared to 20 years ago, and maybe your time is better spent pursuing other gambling ventures." If all sports betting became 6-to-5, I'd tell people to not do it. Period. It's no longer a good bet.

Here's the tough question, and I do not have an answer. Does Dancer do more good by steering people to discipline and knowing the games than he does harm by using himself as a flagship example of what is achievable, when that success can no longer be duplicated? Put another way, simply, are casino bottom lines better or worse due to the existence of Bob Dancer and his books, software, blogs? This is the big question. Now think about that carefully -- there are a lot of philosophical angles here. I don't know if the answer matters in any ethical sense, but it is a fascinating question.

au contraire...

Here's an example of a 27 Million payout on a lottery that had 7 million combinations. A syndicate bought 5 million tickets...including the winner. Of course any AP here should immediately see this is a +EV game...even if you only bought 80,000 tickets.


Investment Syndicate puts 5 Million into VA lottery.

alanleroy, after factoring in the tax(35%-40%?),the reduction of the prize if you wanted the money now (50%?) or the time penalty if you choose to wait the 20 years and the odds of having to share the prize with other winners(unable to determine without additional information) this doesn't seem to be a slam dunk.

There is the risk of multiple winners.

Of course...but does that turn it -EV? Depends on how many tickets were sold, eh?

About $50K richer.