bob Dancer's new column, new question

That's not what I meant, so I apologize for being unclear. What I should have said that it was unrealistic, not impossible, for most players to come up with the huge bankroll required to play these high standard deviation games full time.

For example, how many minimum wage workers have the wherewithall and desire to accumulate a $4,000 gambling bankroll in order to make $8 per hour playing quarters, with no benefits or pay for holidays and bathroom breaks? How many lower middle class workers could come up with a dedicated $16,000 bankroll to tackle dollar per coin games full time in order to make a lower middle class income, sans benefits?

And it scales up from there. Like I said, unrealistic for almost everyone.

Several copies for under a buck:

Still way, way overpriced!

I'm sure that on this blog the overwhelming majority of us could come up with $16k. It is the idea that one can take that money and "make a living" with it off VP in 2011 that is the falsity.
Unless by "living" you mean moving to the Shade Tree shelter.
I started playing 25 years ago and for the first 20 years NEVER played an under 100.5% game. FPDW, 10-6 JOB, Kings or better, Downtown Deuces, Jokers Wild and big meter progressives.
In 2011 the faux pro's are playing negative games like NSUD and trying to eek a 0.3% edge with welfare checks.


The real truth about 2011 VP

Arc, I unsderstand exactly what you are talking about, but it's just that I don't believe it. Or more exactly, I wouldnt want to be the investor who financed your video poker adventures.

You wrote: "Due to the variance a player will lose more sessions than they win. However, a good VP player's "expectation" is still to make money over time. One has to understand what the big picture looks like."

You see, Arc, Ive been around casinos long enough to know that over time the casino will win and the player won't no matter what you might claim concerning positive machines, cash back, comps, etc. Oh yeah, you might have a 50K profit now but what guarantee do you have that you will make a profit next year or the year after. Of course, you can't -- and you know that and I know that.

This is why I cannot buy into the promised land you have seen.

You also wrote: "You're trying to fit VP play into a box that doesn't fit. And, as long as you can't think outside that little box you will continue to be lost."

Yes, I admit that your world does not fit into my box. But most of the world is in my box with me. You are nothing more and nothing less than a gambler who HOPES that the RNG will perform accofrding to the EXPECTATION that all "advantage play" is based on.

Well, I dont expect anything. Sure, you think that over the long term when you are dealt four to the royal that you will draw the royal 1/47 times... over the long run. I suggest you will never see the long run and what you see is only your luck for being at the right place at the right time.

Don't get me wrong -- I think you should play using correct strategy and you should play the machines with the best pay tables and you should take advantage of comps and cash back. All of that is good. But your magical formula for success will not get you a bank loan or get investors to line up... at least not smart investors.

Sure you can hoodwink some people. Heck, I can show you photos of $36K and $37K progressive jackpots but at least Im honest enough to admit that luck was a major factor. In fact with the $36K progressive it was ALL LUCK because it was dealt to me.

I like Steve Wynn's famous quote on 60 Minutes where he said he never knew a player who made a profit from gambling and kept it.

Ive been around a lot of pro poker players who have sold or pawned WSOP bracelets, sold off big parts of themselves for tournament entries, or are simply flat broke. Sure there are some pro poker players who have money thanks to websites, endorsements, book sales, etc.

I know one major pro who plays the satellites at The Bicycle with borrowed money so he can get an entry into the big money tournaments played there. Youd know him too if I revealed his name, but I wont.

Best of luck to you Arc. I hope you continue to win. I also hope that you dont run out of money during a cold streak that prevents you from getting back in the game so you can catch up or come out ahead. Remember what you wrote-- you will have more losing sessions than winning sessions and that opens up a lot of possibilities for busting in between.

Too bad youre not selling books on the side. Or, are you??

Within the ongoing feud of two well known members, and in which, without taking sides, I must say, one side has admirably refrained from ever making a "personal attack" on the other,

I suggest that the roll of the bankroll is entirely dependent upon the bet size. Unless you know the size of the bet per hand, it is difficult to exact complete picture of the risk profile.

So, it is not just the size of the bankroll but also the associated bet size that determines which is best, perhaps.

VegasWatcher, indeed bankroll management is crucial. And if you "downplay" your bankroll you have no fear of going broke.

Most of us are not professional gamblers and therefore we dont employ the "true bankroll management" that the professional players live by. We "non pros" play according to our comfort level.

The pros, on the other hand, follow a "risk of ruin" formula based on the paytables and expectations of the game they are playing. The key thing here, whether they want to admit to it or not, is their dependence on the "expectation" of the game. That means, for example, if the pay table + comps + cash back has an "expected return" of 101% they are expecting to make that profit.

Sorry, I can't "expect" anything when Im in a casino. More power to the pros who can live by this "expectation".

The casino has teams of accountants who crunch these same numbers and the casino and their shareholders also live by the same expectations. If you are invested in a casino stock then you are also counting on these same expectations when the number falls below 100%. One lucky craps player almost took down Binion's years ago before the long term started to kick in and the math won out over luck.

I thought your post last night was very reasonable and you're trying hard to see from the AP viewpoint. You don't have full confidence in the math and especially the RNG to trust that things will balance out in the long term. The casinos are proof that the long term results work on 98.6% games, even with their loss leader of the 101% games.

The casinos love high profile winners like Bob Dancer as it drives more business to their casino because people think "I can do that too!". And then a beautiful half-naked girl saunters up to them and sweetly asks "Would you like some free alcohol?".

MoneyLA, I'm curious. In your learned opinion, what mechanism is it that causes ALL advantage players to ultimately lose? I've helpfully listed some answers from you to choose from:

A. There is no such thing as a positive EV game after cashback.
B. Dissolute advantage players will always fall prey to negative EV games.
C. The principles of statistics, i.e. standard deviation, do not apply within the borders of Clark County.
D. Casino coffers have an irresisitable magnetic pull.
E. While the short run may contain a positive expected value, the long run is always negative.
F. Magic.

Although my question is snarky, I truly and honestly cannot imagine another reason for your beliefs. I look forward to your response.

Dear Mr Money, help me to understand something. You clearly believe in AP with regard to dice setting and roulette wheel bias either mechanical or by dealer influence. You clearly understand that it doesn't take much to turn a -EV game into a +EV game.

Now take a typical VP game and tweak the paytable a little bit to pay out more so it goes from a slight -EV game to a slight +EV game. Is this now the same thing as successful dice setting? Or is it the RNG that you just don't trust?

Forkush. On the contrary, I think there are advantage players who can win and come out ahead. But thats because their skill is enhanced by luck. Its not just skill and it can't be "just skill" because "random number generators" are random and therefore you cannot depend on any particular combinations to show up. When they show up, and you are playing, that is luck. Now tell me that random number generators are NOT random and you can depend on the pay table to be exact during your course of play and everything changes. Then when you play a machine with a 99.5% paytable you WILL get 99.5% payback plus your comps and cashback. But until you can assure me that the RNG will perform exactly as expected, then LUCK becomes a crucial factor.

Look, I believe in following proper strategy. I do. I believe in getting the best comps, playing the best pay tables. But I am not buying any real estate in the promised land of advantage video poker play. Because I know too many people who have gone broke who did.

Snidely: even the best of the dice setters, dice influencers, dice controllers (call them what you like) accept that influencing the dice only adds a SMALL advantage to the game. And frankly, I dont know of any DI who actually makes the claims that the advantage VP players make, ie, they don't make the claims of consistent big money wins.

roulette wheel bias is a different animal entirely: you are taking advantage of a defect in the gaming device. many years ago I played a slot machine in a casino in St Maarten. It hit a cherry on every spin returning $4 for every $2 bet. My friends and I stood there taking turns and enjoying drinks until a casino manager came over and pulled the plug and said "sorry, we have to take this machine out."

Dice setting if and when it works (and maybe there are less than a dozen in the world who can really do it -- and I am NOT one of them) depends on a SKILL and not the luck of a random number generator. I trust RNGs... I turst them to be RANDOM. Anything that is RANDOM cannot, be a good bet. It can be a good gamble, but not a good bet... if you understand my point.

tweaking a VP paytable certainly helps the player, but again, a tweaked VP paytable is still a gamble. You dont know when the RNG will hit, do you? The dice setter has a better chance of delivering an accurate throw because he controls his hand, fingers, arm (to the best he can).

And Ive also known people who tried to win at craps using dice influencing, and failed miserably.

Too many books, DVDs, seminars are sold to a general public gullible for a chance to win the dream. I dont doubt there are winners. But it aint as easy as the claims.