bob Dancer's new column, new question

Dice and roulette wheels are physical things you can touch and therefore (hopefully) control. You have no control over a RNG and have to trust it works as expected. You have no control over the pay table and hope that the math guys ran the numbers correctly. With craps/roulette you are trusting the physical world that you can see and touch. With VP you are trusting technology and math concepts that only exist as scribbles on a piece of paper. Some people are more comfortable in trusting concrete over abstract.

If a RNG is truly random, then you can predict the outcome.
If a RNG is flawed and not really random, then the outcome is unpredictable.

OK, I just what I just wrote is completely the opposite what what most people would expect, so let me explain.

If you have a RNG that spits out "heads" and "tails" then you'd expect an even distribution of heads and tails. With 10 trials it probably won't be 50/50, with with 100 or 1000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or 1M "flips" you'd expect it to approach very very close to 50/50.

If the outcome on 1M flips is 48/52 one time and 53/47 the next, then your RNG is broken and unpredictable. If the outcome is 50/50 then you RNG is working and predictable.

If you have an RNG that just spits out heads and tails, you have no guarantee that the distribution will be equal. If an RNG is truly random it could spit out 95/5 or 3/97 or 49/51. Random is random. You cannot predict "random."

Now we come into the concept of probability. Yes, a RNG can spit out 95/5 or even 995/5. But how probable is that? As your sample size becomes larger the probability of diverging from a uniform distribution becomes smaller. I would not bet on 999,995 "heads" out of 1M spins of the RNG. The probability for that happening is very very low.

Okay, imagine a positive 1% machines, played 24/7 by expert players. Does the casino need to be lucky to win?

If you don't believe in the math, then the casino always has to be lucky to win any game against any player of any skill level.

forkush: if you have a machine with a 101% return played 24/7 by expert players, one or more of those players might get lucky and turn a profit.

however, when will that machine pay the big wins? and when will that machine have its cold streaks? will you be sitting at that machine when its hot or when its cold? if you lump ALL players together the casino will theoretcially lose on a machine that has a 101% payback. But which individual player will be the lucky one?

Kaypea: you see, now we are talking about probabilty and not the certainty of a paytable, and that is exactly my point. paytables are not certain. and probabilities are just what they are. hence, the luck factor. do play the best paytable, do play the best strategy, do go for the best comps and cash back, and do get lucky.

And what is that?

Um....

errr...........

Please explain your definition of the difference between a good bet and a good gamble?

A good bet is likely to win. A good gamble is a fair gamble-- not rigged.

When I go into a business deal, it is a good bet that I am making with my money, because I am likely to turn a profit.

If the business deal were only a fair gamble, I wouldnt risk my money.

In a casino I doubt I will ever find a good bet. But I play in casinos that offer fair gambling.

Kaypea, you ask what are probabilities? The chance that something will happen. Sure, that makes for a fair gamble. But I am afraid that there are those who claim that with "advantage video poker play" they can be consistent long term winners, and I dont buy that. God bless them if they do win.