bob Dancer's new column, new question

Arc, you are a true believer. (look it up) End of conversation.

oops, edited to add:

you cannot control the RNG in a video poker machine. unlike the dealer who can control the pitch of the ball at roulette, the shooter who has the dice, and the gambler who tracks a biased roulette wheel. anything you do with your skills all depend on what the RNG does outside of your control. You have to deal with what is given to you. You cannot create your own playing conditions even if you do sit down at a full pay machine with cash back and comps.

Which is exactly why VP is the only truly predictable game in the casino.

Sorry, I'm not your employee. If you want to ask me a question, look it up yourself and ask.

Also, you can't control a roulette dealer, in many ways it's similar to VP once you have determined the bias.

As for your statement on VP, you are once again ignoring reality. In the business world there are many elements out of the owner's control. If we fall into a depression then a business could go down the tubes. There is a small probability that could happen. However, a business owner doesn't make that a big consideration in their future plans.

The same holds true for VP. A player could hit a long, long losing streak. There is a small probability that could happen. However, a player doesn't make that a big consideration in their future plans.

Instead both the player and the business owner look at likely scenarios and base their plays/plans on what will generate the most money. There's a lot more similarity here than you realize.

About .9999999.....

It amuses me how he seems to compare mathematics and probability to some sort of land of make-believe that you might find in a children's fairy tale (my words not his). Well, my students probably feel the same way.

Alex, Forkie, and Arc,

Just curious, guys. I asked this before, but do you think the casinos' bottom lines are enhanced or reduced by the existence of Bob Dancer? And no fair saying, "The effect is minimal." I just think this opens the door to a fascinating discussion of intent and consequences and so on. I wonder what Dancer thinks, and if he cares. Should he care at all?

Gambling Existentialism 101 -- if Dancer is pitching that he can make people win, but he actually believes he's contributing to casinos' bottom lines overall, what does that say about Dancer?

Kaypea wrote "Which is exactly why VP is the only truly predictable game in the casino."

what about blackjack single deck game, or smaller shoe? what about card craps dealt from a shoe?

I was at Morongo (near Palm Springs) about four years ago when they went right through the entire shoe without a seven out. Near the end of the shoe (actually two shoes, one for each die) we noticed that most if not all of the small cards were out, and we started to load up on the bigger numbers -- 9, 10, 11, 12 -- and they were hitting big.

for awhile, Morongo allowed card craps players to keep notes on what cards played. then they switched from shoes to continuous shuffle machines.

arc, no you can't control a roulette dealer, but there are some roulette dealers who can control their throw and spin and target a quadrant on the wheel. it has been demonstrated to be true. I was present during such a demonstration at a Strip Casino several years ago.

While proper strategy can help you decide which cards in VP you should hold and draw to, the RNG decides which cards are dealt for the initial draw and the replacement draw -- and you have no control. You may have the best strategy and discipline in the world, but if the RNG does not cooperate you lose.

You seem to think that a long losing streak is not a big consideration. Well, good for you. You have the bankroll. You have found the best tables and you are getting the best perks. Keep winning. I wish you the best.

When you use phrases like "the RNG does not cooperate" you are out in la-la land. The RNG just does it's thing of generating numbers. The number generated will follow statistical laws. There's no cooperation necessary, just understanding simple statistics.

You seem to think that the roulette game is different than VP. Shows just how little you understand randomness and statistics.

Dancer doesn't pitch that he can make people win, so the premise of your question doesn't make any sense.

Read this brutal article about how he told his niece that she would probably fail miserably at video poker. Even though Bob Dancer makes money from books, software, and classes, he warns readers of the huge difficulties involved. What does THAT say about Dancer?

Humans are involved. Blackjack dealers can intentionally or unintentionally flash hole cards. They can deal seconds. They can make mistakes. Any game that has the human element can be altered. I'm not saying that it happens often, but it can add an unknown or unpredictable element to the game.

The machine with the RNG is predictable. It will continuously spit out those random numbers. Over time, with enough trials, the results will be uniform across the entire spectrum of possibilities. You will have the same numbers of heads as tails with enough tosses, although there will hot and cold streaks along the way. Sure, humans can alter the programming or install corrupt chips, but there are a lot tighter controls over the machine and its programming than over each and every dealer in the casino. Machines don't have bad nights. People do.

I've read most of the Dancer stuff, including his summary of dealing with his dad (a bird in the hand debate), but I'm having a little trouble with what appears to be Forkie's point. If Dancer's not selling that he can help folks win, he's helping them, what, lose less? Is that really the case? Does the overall population of his readers and clients actually come out with a better lifetime bottom line? Or is this the case of, as Amarillo Slim said, casinos coming out more ahead by shearing sheep many times instead of skinning them once?

I understand both sides of the argument here -- if people are only going to invest x number of hours playing vp lifetime whether they "Do Dancer" or not, then exposure to Dancer undoubtedly helps them. But we have no proof this is the case. One would suspect most folks who invest time, energy, and money in learning via Dancer will consequently invest more time, energy, and money playing video poker than they otherwise would. Do they win, or do they lose more? Interesting questions.

And Forkie, I see you've evaded the question of whether Dancer's existence affects casinos' bottom lines. What is your opinion on that? And should he care?

I actually have been a Dancer fan from his beginnings, but as the well has dried up, interesting questions present themselves. This has some similarities to Max Rubin's comp coaching, which doesn't work nearly as well as 20 years ago.