bob Dancer's new column, new question

Well chef, I agree with a lot that you say, but I also take issue with some.

The key point is about "life of the slot." Here is where luck comes in. If you happen to be sitting at the VP machine when the cards deal the royal, you come out way ahead-- and you dont have to be at the machine for the life of the machine.

So, in fairness to the math guys, your "session" is a slice of the life of the machine, and your slice can be better, worse or the same as any other slice. this is where the "luck" factor comes in.

I put more weight on luck than on math. I think a player can win more on a lousy paytable with lots of luck than a player who only plays FP video poker. But I also believe that a player who only plays FP video poker does have a better chance of winning more than if he were on a machine with a poor pay table.

But like you, I really doubt that playing VP for a profession can offer a good income unless you had a lot of luck to go along with the big bankroll that would be required to play those high coin-in games.

Again, I must recall that session with Dancer (years ago at the Fiesta in North Vegas) when he said his annual income from VP was $250K a year, but half came from winnings ($125K) and half came from cash back. And he was playing triple line $25/coin DW. Thats $375 per push of the button. And even if I had that kind of money to play on a single push of the button over and over again, I wouldnt. And I also question if that kind of cash back is still available today.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
One thing people seem to forget is these articles are space limited.


Oh no! The internet's running out of space. I hope I get this post in.
Oh, now I see how this works: Money starts a new thread about Bob Dancer, which signals a gathering of great minds.

It's sad and shocking the amounts of time and money that are being wasted on "formal education," when resources like this are available. The insights; the razor sharp reasoning skills! And all seemingly without effort. Absolutely phenomenal; bravo! Bravo!!
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Oh, now I see how this works: Money starts a new thread about Bob Dancer, which signals a gathering of great minds.

It's sad and shocking the amounts of time and money that are being wasted on "formal education," when resources like this are available. The insights; the razor sharp reasoning skills! And all seemingly without effort. Absolutely phenomenal; bravo! Bravo!!


Are you being sarcastic?

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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
What is silly, friend Arc, is that you would write something such as this:

"As for money's statement that losing $300 one time has some kind of magical power that could lead to 266 consecutive losses of exactly $300 ... total nonsense. The fact someone would even consider such a silly situation is beyond me. What planet do you live on, money?"

did I say one loss of $300 would lead to 266 consecutive losses? No I did not. I said: "So, how many $300 per session losses can a gambler with an $80K bankroll endure? About 266."

Can you tell the difference between what I said, and what you accuse me of saying? In fact, what I said is absolutely correct. Do the math for yourself, oh keeper of the faith.


Why am I not surprised you missed the point. Look up the word "consider" in the dictionary and maybe you'll figure it out. The issue is why would anyone make-up a scenario that is completely ridiculous as some kind of evidence to support their opinion. It's like saying lucky pink fairies are the most important factor in VP.

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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Oh, and about articles being "space limited" -- I would suggest that if there were not enough space to discuss video poker, that the discussion about the cruise could have been eliminated or reduced. put that in your editorial cap and think about it.


Who said there wasn't enough space to "discuss video poker"? Not me. I simply pointed out that the lack of space in all media forums sometimes limits the details that an author can provide. Do you really believe that space is not a factor?

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Originally posted by: chefantwon
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Originally posted by: arcimedes

Finally, there was one comment about whether someone could double their $80K bankroll/investment every year with a 2% edge. No, they wouldn't do it every year, but they should average it over several years. How many investments average 100% gains every year?


If this were true, then how come every investor on the planet isn't doing it? Nope, ain't happening, your going to 1, get killed by taxes and 2, not even come close to earning that type of return on investment. There are far smarter folks out there than I and if what you talk about were true, they would be making even more money than they do now. Buffett would be worth twice as much as Gates.

If your doubling your investment every year, your going to be laying out a boatload in taxes. At $80k your going to be paying roughly $26,000 a year in taxes (assuming a 5% state tax) add in another $26k from winnings, and thats about $52,000 out the window (30% of income). This of course doesn't count where you end up putting that extra money so it will make more cash for you. Which of course means Uncle Sugar will be taking his hard earned interest payments meaning even less cash left over.

Why isn't everyone making money hand over fist playing VP and why do casino's have so many of those pesky slots out there?

You once stated that "over the life of the slot, there's a 2% gain" exactly how many people play one particular VP machine over its entire life? How long does Dancer play at a particluar VP slot? He has to stop for things like eating, being with his family, hawking books, and other daily chores. So how can he be making money if he isn't sitting at that machine every minute? Every minute he could be losing some of that 2% that VP slot is going to be shelling out.

I've been thinking about this and something just doesn't sit right. Why are casinos making all of these VP slots? They must be bringing a sh!tload of money or they wouldn't be making them. Why are there not hundreds if not thousands of VP millionairs? If the system is so good and so foolproof, why don't we see thousands of folks hawking their VP strategies on the internet or on TV?


It's simple math, you can go on and on about it but it is what it is. BTW, you'll notice I didn't say such a play exists. They used to exist in spades. In fact, there used to be better plays than this. The problem was there are no signs sitting on the machines saying ... play me, I'm worth a bundle. A person had to figure it out for themselves and that was not easy until VP tutor programs became available. And, even now, those programs don't cover everything.

Also, I never said there was a 2% gain "over the life of a machine". What I said is a machine could provide a 2% edge. If you don't understand the difference you probably shouldn't be commenting. All you are doing is displaying your own ignorance.
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
One thing people seem to forget is these articles are space limited.


Oh no! The internet's running out of space. I hope I get this post in.


Most of dancer's articles have been written for published media. Casino Player, the Review Journal etc. But, that is probably not even important. Many people when faced with a large article simply skip it. So, the author's understand they have to get their point across quickly. The age of sound bites has changed the way information is disseminated. But, you already knew that, didn't you.
Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Finally, there was one comment about whether someone could double their $80K bankroll/investment every year with a 2% edge. No, they wouldn't do it every year, but they should average it over several years. How many investments average 100% gains every year?


If this were true, then how come every investor on the planet isn't doing it? Nope, ain't happening, your going to 1, get killed by taxes and 2, not even come close to earning that type of return on investment. There are far smarter folks out there than I and if what you talk about were true, they would be making even more money than they do now. Buffett would be worth twice as much as Gates.

If your doubling your investment every year, your going to be laying out a boatload in taxes. At $80k your going to be paying roughly $26,000 a year in taxes (assuming a 5% state tax) add in another $26k from winnings, and thats about $52,000 out the window (30% of income). This of course doesn't count where you end up putting that extra money so it will make more cash for you. Which of course means Uncle Sugar will be taking his hard earned interest payments meaning even less cash left over.

Why isn't everyone making money hand over fist playing VP and why do casino's have so many of those pesky slots out there?

You once stated that "over the life of the slot, there's a 2% gain" exactly how many people play one particular VP machine over its entire life? How long does Dancer play at a particluar VP slot? He has to stop for things like eating, being with his family, hawking books, and other daily chores. So how can he be making money if he isn't sitting at that machine every minute? Every minute he could be losing some of that 2% that VP slot is going to be shelling out.

I've been thinking about this and something just doesn't sit right. Why are casinos making all of these VP slots? They must be bringing a sh!tload of money or they wouldn't be making them. Why are there not hundreds if not thousands of VP millionairs? If the system is so good and so foolproof, why don't we see thousands of folks hawking their VP strategies on the internet or on TV?


It's simple math, you can go on and on about it but it is what it is. BTW, you'll notice I didn't say such a play exists. They used to exist in spades.

Yeah and the income tax used to be zero, the Indians owned Manhattan and England was an Italian colony.
All of which have as much relevance to today's REAL world as your ramblings from sunny Minnesota.

No Arc. You tried to poke fun at me and you created a BS statement to do it. In fact, you often do this -- twisting comments to suit your argument as the high and mighty protector of the faith.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Finally, there was one comment about whether someone could double their $80K bankroll/investment every year with a 2% edge. No, they wouldn't do it every year, but they should average it over several years. How many investments average 100% gains every year?


If this were true, then how come every investor on the planet isn't doing it? Nope, ain't happening, your going to 1, get killed by taxes and 2, not even come close to earning that type of return on investment. There are far smarter folks out there than I and if what you talk about were true, they would be making even more money than they do now. Buffett would be worth twice as much as Gates.

If your doubling your investment every year, your going to be laying out a boatload in taxes. At $80k your going to be paying roughly $26,000 a year in taxes (assuming a 5% state tax) add in another $26k from winnings, and thats about $52,000 out the window (30% of income). This of course doesn't count where you end up putting that extra money so it will make more cash for you. Which of course means Uncle Sugar will be taking his hard earned interest payments meaning even less cash left over.

Why isn't everyone making money hand over fist playing VP and why do casino's have so many of those pesky slots out there?

You once stated that "over the life of the slot, there's a 2% gain" exactly how many people play one particular VP machine over its entire life? How long does Dancer play at a particluar VP slot? He has to stop for things like eating, being with his family, hawking books, and other daily chores. So how can he be making money if he isn't sitting at that machine every minute? Every minute he could be losing some of that 2% that VP slot is going to be shelling out.

I've been thinking about this and something just doesn't sit right. Why are casinos making all of these VP slots? They must be bringing a sh!tload of money or they wouldn't be making them. Why are there not hundreds if not thousands of VP millionairs? If the system is so good and so foolproof, why don't we see thousands of folks hawking their VP strategies on the internet or on TV?


It's simple math, you can go on and on about it but it is what it is. BTW, you'll notice I didn't say such a play exists. They used to exist in spades. In fact, there used to be better plays than this. The problem was there are no signs sitting on the machines saying ... play me, I'm worth a bundle. A person had to figure it out for themselves and that was not easy until VP tutor programs became available. And, even now, those programs don't cover everything.

Also, I never said there was a 2% gain "over the life of a machine". What I said is a machine could provide a 2% edge. If you don't understand the difference you probably shouldn't be commenting. All you are doing is displaying your own ignorance.


Its simple math, if I keep throwing money at a certain type of slot playing a certain way, I'm guaranteed to make money?

If I remember, the premise of a casino is to make money. Then why on Earth would they place on their valuable floorspace a machine that could literally bankrupt them over time? It would seem that over time, they are going to get their money otherwise, putting them in the casino was unprofitable.

Why don't those VP programs cover everything? If its simple math a computer can do the calculations far faster than you or I could ever do in our lifetime? Besides programming in an a or b choice is rather easy for a computer. A simple input statement could do it or if the calculations are complex, its an easy addition.

"Also, I never said there was a 2% gain "over the life of a machine". What I said is a machine could provide a 2% edge." then please set me straight as to your exact words as I may quote you correctly. Because since we are dealing with a 2% edge, then exactly where is this edge coming from? Oh yea, I forgot, the math.

Please do both of us a favor and don't get too wrapped up in the math. Again, if everything was this simple, EVERYBODY would be playing VP and the casinos would loosing billions of dollars.

Me not stupid, me understand casinos put slot machines in their places of business in order to make money. Otherwise, why put them there in the first place?
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