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Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

oobiedoobie
oobiedoobie
May 23, 2011
10:59am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
arcimedes, you are correct when you said: "It simply means that there's a chance they will not win the jackpot. There's always a chance of that happening. They could also go bankrupt before winning."

And I want to point out what melbedewey said: "the royals are likely to start coming BEFORE any of the games turn positive." this is also correct as it relates to players. but to the casino it doesnt matter. the casino will profit on these machines no matter how big or little the royal hits UNLESS the royal hits more often that the odds of a royal say it will happen in which case even a lousy paytable could end up killing a casino.

But I have faith that the royals will not hit more than expected. Im at more than 59-thousand hands now this year without a royal. Dan is getting all of mine on those nickel machines, damnt.


The assurances of you and melbadewey aside, in a game based on math, the math will tell you when the royals are likely to come. I can say with complete assurance that the average RF will be hit at over $2600. If I knew how to figure out a bell-curve and could accurately estimate player error I could tell you what % of the time you could expect jackpots of 4K, 5K,etc..
MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 23, 2011
12:48pm
Block User
oobiedoobie, I usually am a big fan of your posts, but I can't agree with this or even believe that you wrote it:

"the math will tell you when the royals are likely to come."

the math can NEVER tell you when the royals are likely to come.
snidely333
snidely333
May 23, 2011
12:58pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
oobiedoobie, I usually am a big fan of your posts, but I can't agree with this or even believe that you wrote it:

"the math will tell you when the royals are likely to come."

the math can NEVER tell you when the royals are likely to come.


Will so.
MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 23, 2011
1:21pm
Block User
sorry snidely, each hand is independent of all other hands. the math cannot tell you when a royal will come.

snidely333
snidely333
May 23, 2011
1:28pm
Block User
The math can predict how many hands, on average, it will take to hit the royal.

But I like the way you're thinking.
RoadTrip
RoadTrip
May 23, 2011
3:47pm
Block User
regardless of what everyone says about EV and probability, the odds of getting a RF on your next hand are always "50-50".

either you do, or you don't.



MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 23, 2011
5:06pm
Block User
snidely wrote: "The math can predict how many hands, on average, it will take to hit the royal." Yes, the math can predict on average how many hands a royal comes.

but the statement in question is this one: "the math will tell you when the royals are likely to come." and the math cannot tell you when the royals are likely to come.

since you guys like to use "coin flips" consider this:

you toss a coin 100 times and 100 times its heads. the math says that the next coin flip will be heads 50% of the time.


MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 23, 2011
5:14pm
Block User
On another forum Rob Singer wrote about playing these progressives.
BAGIANT
BAGIANT
May 24, 2011
1:41am
Block User
I spoke to Singer the other day, and he said he played these machines. Although the payouts were low, he said the jackpot seemed to grow fast.

By the way, I got him an upgrade at the Silverton, and after he got checked in, he called me back to tell me he had got DEALT a Royal playing .50c VP with his $25 FSP. How's that for a deal?
RoadTrip
RoadTrip
May 24, 2011
2:26am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA


since you guys like to use "coin flips" consider this:

you toss a coin 100 times and 100 times its heads. the math says that the next coin flip will be heads 50% of the time.


And Occam's Razor suggests it may be a coin with two heads, and no tail and/or that somehow there is cheating to achieve that result.




Edited to add:

Money, you once said something to the effect that most, if not all coins are biased and that the "heads" side is technically heavier than the tails side. That is is expected for "heads" to come up more often, although an insignificant amount.

So why are you now saying it's 50-50?





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