Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

Indeed US coins have heavier heads than tails and this is because of their design. I used the coin flip analogy since that is what is often used to prove me wrong. There have been several coin flip yests that prove coin flips with US coins are not true fifty fifty propositions.

The math will tell you that you are likely to get a heads after two coin flips. No one wrote "will be" except you. Oobie wrote "likely to happen".

It is a bit of a paradox. One could state that a RF is expected to happen withing 40,000 hands. But, on the 40,000th hand the probability of a RF is still 1/40,000.

Yes, it does... in your imagination, which is the only place the scenario exists. In the more likely scenario of one player on one machine, or two players on two machines, a player does not become better off when the other leaves to take a crap (except for the fact that the guy left to do his biz, rather than doing it right there.)

If you actually do this long enough, instead of just theorizing, you will eventually understand it doesn't matter. Likewise, the actual probability of a coin flip doesn't matter. It just takes some folks longer than others to figure that out.

If Money joins that team, and plays a reasonably equivalent game, the team's variance goes down, but its expectation doesn't increase.

snidely wrote: "The math will tell you that you are likely to get a heads after two coin flips."

Really, Snidely??

So tell me Snidely, are you one of those players who walks up to a roulette wheel, and sees on the board that the last two spins were black, and then bets on red?

Um, almost but not quite. The trick is to bet every thing you own on that one spin, and then walk away. It was in some movie.

Yes, really. If you spin the wheel twice you are likely to get at least one black. The probability on any one spin is still 50% (assuming no stinking green).

but snidely, thats not what you said before. you wrote: "The math will tell you that you are likely to get a heads after two coin flips."

in the case of roulette, that would means after two blacks the math (your math, that is) will tell you that you are likely to get a red.

"likely" does not mean 50-50 in my book. does 50-50 mean "likely" to you? "likely" to me is more like 95 to 5 or 99 to 1... or as the weatherman might say, a 70% chance of rain.

Money

Just curious to read your answers to this:

Where do you draw the line on "likely".....

90-10?
70-30?
60-40?
51-49?
50.1-49.9?
50.000001 - 40.000099 ?

And, can "likely" apply to the outcome of 1 decision?
10 decisions?
100 decisions?
1000 decisions?

Is it "likely" that if a coin is flipped 200 times, that at least 1 heads will appear?
Is it "likely" that if a coin is flipped 20 times, that at least 1 heads will appear?
Is it "likely" that if a coin is flipped 2 times, that at least 1 heads will appear?


.

Likely differs from possibly. Likely is greater than 50/50. Other than that "likely" has no numerical value. Webster says likely is "a high probability of occuring."
What is a high probability to you roadtrip?

Who are you, and what have you done to MoneyLA?