Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

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Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
They don't need to change any of the pay tables.


Then they must be discarding one of the aces from the deck and you're really playing with a 51 card deck.
Okay, just because I enjoy messing around with basic math (the only math I know) lets assume a team of experts started playing these machines when they were first put in. 8 $1 machines each with jackpots of $4000, We will assume 750 hands per hour per machine. After 40 hours they could expect to be losing about $40,800. From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%, they could expect to earn $180/hr thru infinity, breaking even after a total of 307 hours. From there on the profits continue to be $180/hr or $22.50 per machine. The result is video poker teams probably wouldn't be too excited about this opportunity except on fairly rare occasions.These numbers, of course, reflect nearly perfect play. In reality, however, once the bank of machines have had a total play of over $1 million coin-in, an individual expert player, being able to pick and choose, and being able to take advantage of fellow player error,can probably expect to average $50/hr or more on a regular basis.
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%


Can you explain how the payback percentage changes without the pay table changing?
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Originally posted by: KayPea
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%


Can you explain how the payback percentage changes without the pay table changing?

Well when the royal is 4000 coins it is one fixed "hypothetical" payback number. As the progressive progressives the hypothetical payback increases. These machines become positive at around 10,000 coins. Someone will correct me with the exact numbers.
Of course if you don't hit the royal you are still getting a 94% game-which is a money sucker in anyone's game.

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Originally posted by: melbedewy
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Originally posted by: KayPea
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%


Can you explain how the payback percentage changes without the pay table changing?

The paytable DOES change. When the royal is 4000 coins it is one fixed "hypothetical" payback number. As the progressive progresses the hypothetical payback increases. These machines become positive at around 10,000 coins. Someone will correct me with the exact numbers.
Of course if you don't hit the royal you are still getting a 94% game-which is a money sucker in anyone's game.


Melbe, each of the 8 games has a different base % thus a different break-even point. My 100.6% is simply the average base payback plus the average increase due to the progressive. Your 10,000 coins is very close,maybe just a little low.
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
Okay, just because I enjoy messing around with basic math (the only math I know) lets assume a team of experts started playing these machines when they were first put in. 8 $1 machines each with jackpots of $4000, We will assume 750 hands per hour per machine. After 40 hours they could expect to be losing about $40,800. From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%, they could expect to earn $180/hr thru infinity, breaking even after a total of 307 hours. From there on the profits continue to be $180/hr or $22.50 per machine. The result is video poker teams probably wouldn't be too excited about this opportunity except on fairly rare occasions.These numbers, of course, reflect nearly perfect play. In reality, however, once the bank of machines have had a total play of over $1 million coin-in, an individual expert player, being able to pick and choose, and being able to take advantage of fellow player error,can probably expect to average $50/hr or more on a regular basis.


oobie,

If the group of experts started playing all the machines at the reset point, any progressive amounts over and above the 4000 coinRF were contributed by themselves, so they are only getting their own money back.

The only way a group of experts would play these machines would be if the progressives were already built up past $10,000 through other player losses.
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Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
Okay, just because I enjoy messing around with basic math (the only math I know) lets assume a team of experts started playing these machines when they were first put in. 8 $1 machines each with jackpots of $4000, We will assume 750 hands per hour per machine. After 40 hours they could expect to be losing about $40,800. From this point on, with an average payback of 100.6%, they could expect to earn $180/hr thru infinity, breaking even after a total of 307 hours. From there on the profits continue to be $180/hr or $22.50 per machine. The result is video poker teams probably wouldn't be too excited about this opportunity except on fairly rare occasions.These numbers, of course, reflect nearly perfect play. In reality, however, once the bank of machines have had a total play of over $1 million coin-in, an individual expert player, being able to pick and choose, and being able to take advantage of fellow player error,can probably expect to average $50/hr or more on a regular basis.




It is only logical that if a team of players totally monopolized these machines from the original reset for each individual game jackpot on day one, and played for many millions of hands, that the team would experience a total net loss equivalent to the house advantage of approximately 3-4%.

Any points, cash back, comps, or promotions are not included in the above.

Any opportunity to profit can only arise when a jackpot for a specific game reaches the "magic number" for that individual game which would, at that moment in that game, temporarily turn the expectation positive until that progressive jackpot is won by a player.

It is illogical to think that if the "team" played hundreds of millions of hands, from the initial operational start up of those games, that they would earn a profit "in the long run" as a team, and the only players to play those machines.

Their temporary "positive EV" would not offset their losses. It is an illusion.













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Originally posted by: RoadTrip It is only logical... that the team would experience a total net loss... It is illogical to think... they would earn a profit "in the long run" as a team, and the only players to play those machines.
Is it logical to state the exact same thing twice, first as a premise and second as a conclusion?

There seem to be several interpretations of what Dancer was trying to say about the payouts. E.g. whether the games offer 96.5 or 100.5 for infinite perfect play. However, it is common sense, not logic, that indicates the house will not pay for a system of machines designed to bleed it of cash, and then allow that system to continue operating.

I think some of you might be confusing the "casino hold" on the machine with the "payback percentage" on the machine.

If the casino hold with the inferior pay table is 3.5% it will always be 3.5%. However, as the royal progressive grows the payback percentage will increase.

Because the casino does not get any of the increase in the royal due to the progressive contributions, the casino's hold will not increase no matter how big the royal progressive becomes. However, as the royal progressive gets bigger and bigger, the payback for the player who hits the royal increases. If you don't hit the royal, you are still stuck at a game with a lousy paytable.

So in fact the payback percentage is always changing, growing with each contribution to the progressive pool. But the pay table with the exception of the progressive does not change. And while the progressive pay table dollar amount will change, all of it above the base amount of 4000 coins goes only to the winner player -- and not to the casino.
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