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Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

alanleroy
alanleroy
May 28, 2011
12:33am
Block User
From Anthony Curtis in the June Las Vegas Advisor Newsletter:

"The traditional model described above doesn’t quite apply here, because the 4% take-out is too stiff. Nope, here the casino has to make its profit off sub-optimal play, i.e., mistakes made by the players."

So, that settles it. The EV on these games is positive. The 4% is coming out of the house edge, not some strange player tax. The ONLY way the casino makes money is from player mistakes.

Curtis makes several other interesting comments on the game but you'll have to join LVA and read the newsletter (plug).
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
May 28, 2011
12:42am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
If the casino hold with the inferior pay table is 3.5% it will always be 3.5%. However, as the royal progressive grows the payback percentage will increase.
This isn't true. The house (being self-interested), can change the paytable as the jackpot increases, to shave points off the EV, leaving your "payback percentage" relatively stable.

a2a3dseddie
a2a3dseddie
May 28, 2011
1:20am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
From Anthony Curtis in the June Las Vegas Advisor Newsletter:

"The traditional model described above doesn’t quite apply here, because the 4% take-out is too stiff. Nope, here the casino has to make its profit off sub-optimal play, i.e., mistakes made by the players."

So, that settles it. The EV on these games is positive. The 4% is coming out of the house edge, not some strange player tax. The ONLY way the casino makes money is from player mistakes.

Curtis makes several other interesting comments on the game but you'll have to join LVA and read the newsletter (plug).


So I guess I was completely wrong! My apologies to every other poster who knew the truth.

It's pretty generous of the M Casino to completely give up their 3.5% edge on all of these games throw in an extra 0.5% of their own money, plus give out comps, point multiplier days, and cashback hoping there are enough player mistakes for them to turn a profit. I wonder if anyone could ever really determine how much the M Casino would make from these machines.
MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 28, 2011
1:37am
Block User
mrmarcus wrote: "This isn't true. The house (being self-interested), can change the paytable as the jackpot increases."

Pray tell, where did you get this inside information that the casino will adjust the paytables as the jackpot rises? This is indeed vital information. What is your source for this? In fact, Dancer should adjust his report for this information.

Please STATE your source.

And regarding AC's comments as quoted above: I stand by my earlier comment that there is confusion here between casino hold and payback percentage. I dont think the M stands to do anything less but make a lot of money on these machines... even if the progressives hit a gazillion dollars.

alanleroy
alanleroy
May 28, 2011
1:41am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
From Anthony Curtis in the June Las Vegas Advisor Newsletter:

"The traditional model described above doesn’t quite apply here, because the 4% take-out is too stiff. Nope, here the casino has to make its profit off sub-optimal play, i.e., mistakes made by the players."

So, that settles it. The EV on these games is positive. The 4% is coming out of the house edge, not some strange player tax. The ONLY way the casino makes money is from player mistakes.

Curtis makes several other interesting comments on the game but you'll have to join LVA and read the newsletter (plug).


So I guess I was completely wrong! My apologies to every other poster who knew the truth.

It's pretty generous of the M Casino to completely give up their 3.5% edge on all of these games thrown in an extra 0.5% of their own money, plus give out comps, point multiplier days, and cashback hoping there are enough player mistakes for them to turn a profit. I wonder if anyone could ever really determine how much the M Casino would make from these machines.


Curtis goes on to point out that the most common VP error is not playing full coin in....especially devastating on a Jackpot machine. So there must be more ploppies then we realize.

He also notes that some of the 8 games involve complex plays and are not common...especially with jackpot strategy variations, so perfect play is particularly difficult.
alanleroy
alanleroy
May 28, 2011
1:56am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
And regarding AC's comments as quoted above: I stand by my earlier comment that there is confusion here between casino hold and payback percentage. I dont think the M stands to do anything less but make a lot of money on these machines... even if the progressives hit a gazillion dollars.


So, do you disagree with Curtis's statement that: "...here the casino has to make its profit off sub-optimal play, i.e., mistakes made by the players."? If so, what is the basis for your objection?
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
May 28, 2011
2:04am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA where did you get this inside information that the casino will adjust the paytables as the jackpot rises? Please STATE your source.
My source is common sense. The casino CAN adjust the paytables on THEIR machines.
Please state YOUR source for YOUR statement that the paytable will ALWAYS be 96.5. I am not required to provide definitive disproof of your non-sequiturs.

snidely333
snidely333
May 28, 2011
2:12am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA where did you get this inside information that the casino will adjust the paytables as the jackpot rises? Please STATE your source.
My source is common sense. The casino CAN adjust the paytables on THEIR machines.
Please state YOUR source for YOUR statement that the paytable will ALWAYS be 96.5. I am not required to provide definitive disproof of your non-sequiturs.


Sounds like you're just making it up as you go.
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
May 28, 2011
2:17am
Block User
Yes, a casino's ability to adjust its paytables is something I just made up, just now. I should take this amazing new idea to corporate, ASAP, so no one beats me to it.
snidely333
snidely333
May 28, 2011
2:23am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
If the casino hold with the inferior pay table is 3.5% it will always be 3.5%. However, as the royal progressive grows the payback percentage will increase.
This isn't true. The house (being self-interested), can change the paytable as the jackpot increases, to shave points off the EV, leaving your "payback percentage" relatively stable.


You're suggesting that a casino is going to adjust the pay table down on a progressive VP machine as the jackpot increases? Seriously, that is your contention?
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