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Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

melbedewy
melbedewy
May 30, 2011
12:43am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: tomdoug
If the game is "beatable", why would any "advantage player" not make it his/her regular job? At least 40 hrs per week. From what I have read, there is nothing stopping them, the sky is the limit. What is stopping you from making money so easily at doing what you love?


Some may do just that. If you go to the Palms FPDW progressive you will see the same sad faces day after day who think it will be "fun" to bang away 10 hours a day at a computer screen just so they can eek out a minute profit.
They slowly burn out though, one by one.
melbedewy
melbedewy
May 30, 2011
12:44am
Block User
Anybody know if the Joker Poker royal has been hit yet?
If not, what is the meter?
fedomalley
fedomalley
May 30, 2011
2:15am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: melbedewy
Quote
Originally posted by: tomdoug
If the game is "beatable", why would any "advantage player" not make it his/her regular job? At least 40 hrs per week. From what I have read, there is nothing stopping them, the sky is the limit. What is stopping you from making money so easily at doing what you love?


Some may do just that. If you go to the Palms FPDW progressive you will see the same sad faces day after day who think it will be "fun" to bang away 10 hours a day at a computer screen just so they can eek out a minute profit.
They slowly burn out though, one by one.


melbedewy, I think there's a distinct difference...

1. The quarter FPDW at Palms is positive out of the box and is relatively low volatility.

2. The games at M don't become positive until either the casino seeds the RF or players sit on 96+% games and get the RF into positive territory. In either event these are much more volatile games.

3. The strategy for the variety of games at the M is considerably more complex when you throw the strategy break points into the mix.

I don't think the same crowd who bangs it out at Palms, trying to make $10/hr. are the same risk prone players that will pitch up at M to play these. I don't know the bankroll requirements for these games at M but it strikes me that you likely need a $1 bankroll to play these quarter games. If the group from Palms had that, they'd likely be playing the $1DB progressives there.

This is obviously speculation on my part but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.
KayPea
KayPea
May 30, 2011
3:05am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Again, the casino never loses, and can't lose. The casino puts ZERO towards the progressive. The progressive simply transfers money from a group of players to the lucky winner. The casino's money is not involved in the progressive amount above the first 4000 coins for the royal, and the first 4000 coins was already factored into the reduced pay tables.


Sure the casino can loose. A player can come and put in $20 and hit the RF. The 4000 coins from the casino is a loss. I agree that anything over 4000 coins is not a loss from the casino as it originally came from other players. But that base 4000 coins is a loss by the casino if the player had not put in at least 4000 coins before hitting the RF.

arcimedes
arcimedes
May 30, 2011
3:49am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: tomdoug
If the game is "beatable", why would any "advantage player" not make it his/her regular job? At least 40 hrs per week. From what I have read, there is nothing stopping them, the sky is the limit. What is stopping you from making money so easily at doing what you love?


The advantage players will hit the games when they turn positive. They network with each other and share information about the various progressives around town. The machines fill up fast when they go positive.

If the games stay positive for long periods of time there are some players who will play MORE than 40 hours a week. The fact you don't understand what is pretty much common knowledge around Vegas shows you really don't know much at all.

snidely333
snidely333
May 30, 2011
4:07am
Block User
Quote
why would any "advantage player" not make it his/her regular job?
Because they can make more money doing other things.
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
May 30, 2011
4:16am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: fedomalley melbedewy, I think there's a distinct difference...
I don't think the same crowd who bangs it out at Palms, trying to make $10/hr. are the same risk prone players that will pitch up at M to play these.
Exactly. After the jackpots pass BE, the variance will increase, non-linearly (what's the word?). This is all about marketing and market segmentation.

tomdoug
tomdoug
May 30, 2011
5:49am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote
Originally posted by: tomdoug
If the game is "beatable", why would any "advantage player" not make it his/her regular job? At least 40 hrs per week. From what I have read, there is nothing stopping them, the sky is the limit. What is stopping you from making money so easily at doing what you love?


The advantage players will hit the games when they turn positive. They network with each other and share information about the various progressives around town. The machines fill up fast when they go positive.

If the games stay positive for long periods of time there are some players who will play MORE than 40 hours a week. The fact you don't understand what is pretty much common knowledge around Vegas shows you really don't know much at all.
From what I've read, with comps and favorable paytables, positive EV is all too common. Now your telling me that AP players have to stand around and wait for favorable terms. Which is it?

MoneyLA
MoneyLA
May 30, 2011
6:21am
Block User
a couple of things:

Kaypea wrote: "Sure the casino can loose. A player can come and put in $20 and hit the RF. The 4000 coins from the casino is a loss." Actually, Kaypea, hitting the 4000 coin royal is already factored into the very weak, and very high hold that the casino has from the poor pay table. But what would hurt the casino is if the royals get hit in rapid succession, much more frequently than one in 40,000 hands. that would hurt.

Arc wrote: "The advantage players will hit the games when they turn positive. They network with each other and share information about the various progressives around town. The machines fill up fast when they go positive." Well, Ive heard of a chart that shows just how big the royals must be for the games to turn positive. its going to be a long time before these games turn positive. frankly, I cant imagine any AP playing these as the player contribution to the royals is split among all eight games. And already there are some reports about these games with the casino's chart published.

Arc wrote: "Once again, the only money the casinos make is the amount of the player errors (-.5%). This is simple addition, money. Everyone else is NOT wrong ... you are." Ummm... do you think the casino is offering a game that is beatable? Are you nuts? Sure a casino might seed a few positive EV games as loss leaders but there are three banks of games, heavily promoted, and if you knew how the player contributions were divided among all of the games in each denomination you would realize just how much profit the casino is making from the basic poor pay tables until the progressives become rich enough for any of you APs to play it.

There is a good reason why this is the #1 promotion from the M Casino right now. They view it as a gold mine. And they will strike the mother lode from it. And so will Dancer, and good for him. This is a game that will make it appear the players can get rich when it will be the casino, and Dancer deserves his share.
melbedewy
melbedewy
May 30, 2011
6:54am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
a couple of things:

Kaypea wrote: "Sure the casino can loose. A player can come and put in $20 and hit the RF. The 4000 coins from the casino is a loss." Actually, Kaypea, hitting the 4000 coin royal is already factored into the very weak, and very high hold that the casino has from the poor pay table. But what would hurt the casino is if the royals get hit in rapid succession, much more frequently than one in 40,000 hands. that would hurt.

Arc wrote: "The advantage players will hit the games when they turn positive. They network with each other and share information about the various progressives around town. The machines fill up fast when they go positive." Well, Ive heard of a chart that shows just how big the royals must be for the games to turn positive. its going to be a long time before these games turn positive. frankly, I cant imagine any AP playing these as the player contribution to the royals is split among all eight games. And already there are some reports about these games with the casino's chart published.

Arc wrote: "Once again, the only money the casinos make is the amount of the player errors (-.5%). This is simple addition, money. Everyone else is NOT wrong ... you are." Ummm... do you think the casino is offering a game that is beatable? Are you nuts? Sure a casino might seed a few positive EV games as loss leaders but there are three banks of games, heavily promoted, and if you knew how the player contributions were divided among all of the games in each denomination you would realize just how much profit the casino is making from the basic poor pay tables until the progressives become rich enough for any of you APs to play it.

There is a good reason why this is the #1 promotion from the M Casino right now. They view it as a gold mine. And they will strike the mother lode from it. And so will Dancer, and good for him. This is a game that will make it appear the players can get rich when it will be the casino, and Dancer deserves his share.


Actually it's a win-win situation. The casino will make some money. The "AP"'s will get some of the theoretical positive plays they crave like crackheads.
The only real losers will be those poor stupid suckers who play this game at under 100%. They are getting a double ass-raping.
I'll avoid the devlish query of asking why, since the Joker Poker is around 102%, these much heralded "teams" of (Ahem) "pro"'s aren't banging away at all 20 machines 24 hours a day. At 1000 hands an hour it is over a $30 an hour theoretical play and rising by the minute.
Hmmmmmmmmm
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