Vegas Free-for-All - Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

MoneyLA

May 30, 2011
11:47am

thanks Arc. Now, are you going to be the one who hits the royal, or is your team of APs going to be at the game? If its you who hits the royal congratulations. You win. But surprise, the casino is also going to make a profit-- which was my point all along.

My point from the beginning has been that the casino wins and can't lose.

Dancer is also going to win if as I suspect he has a licensing fee, promotional fee, or whatever attached.

But lets get back to you, the player.... because if you dont win and if your "team" consists of more than one player, you are going to take a big bath playing these machines.

As a matter of fact, Arc, if the super double bonus game royal ever reaches 16-thou the payback on that game will be 104.190 percent. that will be wonderful if you hit it. but if you are sitting at that game and playing 800 hands per hour until it does hit-- and its hit by someone else-- how much have you lost?

Im really surprised at you, Arc. I thought you would be the first to say DONT play these machines because they become positive ONLY in a limited way (after a lot of play) and they become positive for ONLY ONE player who hits the royal. EVERYONE ELSE is a loser. Why didnt you say THAT ???

And is this the kind of game a true AP would play? Certainly its not a positive game to play any day of the week. Arent you better off with your OEJ machines?

MoneyLA

May 30, 2011
12:01pm

Block User

Going back a few posts, Dan is correct when he wrote this:

"1. The quarter FPDW at Palms is positive out of the box and is relatively low volatility.

2. The games at M don't become positive until either the casino seeds the RF or players sit on 96+% games and get the RF into positive territory. In either event these are much more volatile games. "

Dan is correct. These games at the M arent worthwhile until the jackpots become huge and unless you are the winner of the huge royal youve just thrown out a lot of good money.

Honestly, I doubt even the AP teams would play these games because there is too much risk. Maybe Arc can do the math... what is your opportunity cost for playing a $1 7/5 jacks or better game with a payback of 100.93% and a royal worth 12,000 versus a 9/6 jacks or better game with a 99.5% payback and a $4,000 royal just a few feet away in the same casino?

I can just picture a team at these games, and a little old lady from Pasadena shows up, plunks in a $100 bill and hits the royal.

Ive seen it happen many times at Rincon when the teams show up and someone else gets the royal.

arcimedes

May 30, 2011
9:13pm

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
thanks Arc. Now, are you going to be the one who hits the royal, or is your team of APs going to be at the game? If its you who hits the royal congratulations. You win. But surprise, the casino is also going to make a profit-- which was my point all along.

My point from the beginning has been that the casino wins and can't lose.

Dancer is also going to win if as I suspect he has a licensing fee, promotional fee, or whatever attached.

But lets get back to you, the player.... because if you dont win and if your "team" consists of more than one player, you are going to take a big bath playing these machines.

As a matter of fact, Arc, if the super double bonus game royal ever reaches 16-thou the payback on that game will be 104.190 percent. that will be wonderful if you hit it. but if you are sitting at that game and playing 800 hands per hour until it does hit-- and its hit by someone else-- how much have you lost?

Im really surprised at you, Arc. I thought you would be the first to say DONT play these machines because they become positive ONLY in a limited way (after a lot of play) and they become positive for ONLY ONE player who hits the royal. EVERYONE ELSE is a loser. Why didnt you say THAT ???

And is this the kind of game a true AP would play? Certainly its not a positive game to play any day of the week. Arent you better off with your OEJ machines?

Money, if I play FPDW and play for many hours without hitting a RF or deuces I will be a loser. If I play FPDW consistently over time I will likely be a winner hitting many deuces and RFs.

So, exactly what is different with the games at the M? You are still confusing what happens in individual sessions with what happens over time. Sure, if I played the games I would lose quite often. However, if I played them consistently when the RF is high enough to make the machines positive I would eventually hit one of those big royals ... And when I did it would cover all my other losses. And, the casino would end up losing money on my play and anyone else who played like me.

As I stated before and you still don't seem to understand. The casino only makes money on player errors. That is it. You simply do not understand the reality of this game. And, it appears, you never will.

The only danger to me would be if the M decided to pull the machines before I hit the RF. That is the risk.

mrmarcus12LVA

May 30, 2011
9:37pm

Block User

Money continues to confuse expectation with variance. He probably always will. And he always claims that APs attract negative variance, and ploppies attract positive variance.

I believe he has developed a philosophy that effectively assigns the blame for his losses to someone/something other than himself.

arcimedes

May 30, 2011
10:03pm

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Honestly, I doubt even the AP teams would play these games because there is too much risk. Maybe Arc can do the math... what is your opportunity cost for playing a $1 7/5 jacks or better game with a payback of 100.93% and a royal worth 12,000 versus a 9/6 jacks or better game with a 99.5% payback and a $4,000 royal just a few feet away in the same casino?

I can just picture a team at these games, and a little old lady from Pasadena shows up, plunks in a $100 bill and hits the royal.

Ive seen it happen many times at Rincon when the teams show up and someone else gets the royal.

With teams there is very little risk. If you can tie up the entire bank you are guaranteed to make a profit. Even if you don't get all the seats you are still the favorite to hit the RF most of the time. The question is when do you jump on the games. I prefer an edge of at least .5% when I start to play a progressive.

For individuals the risk is what I stated above, that the M will pull the games before you hit a RF.

Money, you are still too focused on individual sessions and that is preventing you from seeing the big picture ... or, maybe you don't want to see the big picture. Who knows.

MoneyLA

May 30, 2011
11:59pm

Block User

I understand your belief, Arc, but I cannot follow it.

The "variance" for being the winner at the M progressives is too high. You are depending not only on being the winner of the royal flush, but also only when the royal is high enough to cover your otherwise larger losses from the poor paytable. Of course you would never play the M machines unless the royal was positive so that furthers limits your opportunities for both playing and for winning.

frankly, being the winner of the royal at M when the machine is positive is starting to look more and more like being the lucky winner of the lottery because not ANY royal will suffice... you have to hit a royal only when it pays enough to make the machine a positive play which further limits your play time and opportunity time.

You still make the error that the casino might lose money. Only if the royals are hit many times, faster than a normal distribution of royals will the casino risk a loss. The M would love for the progressives to reach a hundred thousand dollars per machine because all of the progressive amount above the basic 4-thousand coins comes from the players (if you dont believe me-- ask them) and in the interim they scored a huge profit for their poor paytable.

I hope you are the winner of these progressives... even one... because if youre not youre going to lose a lot of money. Perhaps you should move back to LV, and there are some nice communities in Henderson near the M that could keep you close to these particular machines.

Oh, and further the M cannot pull the machines before a RF is hit. The M could only pull the machines AFTER the royal is hit. Under NGC rules the progressives belong to the players who funded them-- they are not the casino's profits or money. And if you dont believe this either, ask the NGC as I have.

By the way, the day I hit a progressive for 37K at Rincon, the team didnt hit it.

And the day the 70K progressive was hit at Rincon, the team didnt hit it.

And the day the 52K progressive was hit at Rincon, the team didnt hit it. Oh, and the little old lady from Irvine who hit the 52K progressive that day a couple of hours later hit another royal on her same machine for 21k.

arcimedes

May 31, 2011
12:58am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
I understand your belief, Arc, but I cannot follow it.

Try spending a little more time and maybe you will eventually "get it". It's really quite simple ... 96.5 + 4 > 100. What part of that can't you "follow"?

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
The "variance" for being the winner at the M progressives is too high. You are depending not only on being the winner of the royal flush, but also only when the royal is high enough to cover your otherwise larger losses from the poor paytable. Of course you would never play the M machines unless the royal was positive so that furthers limits your opportunities for both playing and for winning.

That's where the 4% meter comes in. The progressives increase much faster than you seem to realize. In addition, once they get up there the play will increase. Even if one game is knocked off some of the other games will be close to being positive. That means the APers will have many opportunities to play.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
frankly, being the winner of the royal at M when the machine is positive is starting to look more and more like being the lucky winner of the lottery because not ANY royal will suffice... you have to hit a royal only when it pays enough to make the machine a positive play which further limits your play time and opportunity time.

Repeating the same erroreous argument will not make it true.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
You still make the error that the casino might lose money. Only if the royals are hit many times, faster than a normal distribution of royals will the casino risk a loss. The M would love for the progressives to reach a hundred thousand dollars per machine because all of the progressive amount above the basic 4-thousand coins comes from the players (if you dont believe me-- ask them) and in the interim they scored a huge profit for their poor paytable.

The RFs will be hit on average every 30-40K hands. It's simple statistics and your fantasy world will not change that reality. The casino would lose money if everyone played perfectly. That is, once again, simple math. The fact you can't do simple arithmetic does not change that reality. Now, everyone will not play perfectly so the casino will make a little money, but it is not for the crazy reasons you keep trying to put forth.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
I hope you are the winner of these progressives... even one... because if youre not youre going to lose a lot of money. Perhaps you should move back to LV, and there are some nice communities in Henderson near the M that could keep you close to these particular machines.

I did not live all that far from the M before (west Henderson), but moving back is not an option at the moment. Who knows what the future will bring.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Oh, and further the M cannot pull the machines before a RF is hit. The M could only pull the machines AFTER the royal is hit. Under NGC rules the progressives belong to the players who funded them-- they are not the casino's profits or money. And if you dont believe this either, ask the NGC as I have.

No, that is not true. The requirement is that the money invested in the progressive can not be reclaimed by the casino. They could pull the current machines and move the progressives dollars to another machine.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
By the way, the day I hit a progressive for 37K at Rincon, the team didnt hit it.

And the day the 70K progressive was hit at Rincon, the team didnt hit it.

And the day the 52K progressive was hit at Rincon, the team didnt hit it. Oh, and the little old lady from Irvine who hit the 52K progressive that day a couple of hours later hit another royal on her same machine for 21k.

Meaningless drivel. Of course other people will hit some of the progressives. However, the team will hit their statistical allotment based on their play. Since they only play when the games are positive they will make money. Your cherry picking of a few royals hit by other players demonstrates more than ever that you don't understand simple mathematics.

KayPea

May 31, 2011
1:02am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
You still make the error that the casino might lose money. Only if the royals are hit many times, faster than a normal distribution of royals will the casino risk a loss.

The casino might loose money on these games. As you have pointed out many times, the game is random and the royals may hit back to back or go 57,000 hands before hitting a royal. There is no guarantee that the casino will ever make money on any game. It is all random based on the RNG and totally unpredictable. The pay tables are really irrelevant to the actual outcome. If you don't believe me, just go back and reread your old posts. You have pointed this out many times.

arcimedes

May 31, 2011
1:11am

Block User

Let's go over the math one more time and keep it really, really simple. Let's assume a 40K hands RF average cycle time, everyone is playing the same game and everyone plays perfectly.

You claim the casino will make lots of money before the RF is hit. Ok, let's see how much money they will make. The 40K hands at $5 a hand represents a total of $200K gambled. The machines return 94.5% outside of the RF so that means the casino will make 5.5% of the $200K that was gambled. That is $11,000.

Are you with me so far?

Now, a player finally hits the RF on the 40,000th hand. The progressive meter has been rising at the 4% rate so that 4% of the $200K ($8K) has been added to reset value of $4K. The total progressive is now $12K. So, the casino took in $11K and now pays out $12K.

Tell us how the casino is making money.

a2a3dseddie

May 31, 2011
2:30am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
Let's go over the math one more time and keep it really, really simple. Let's assume a 40K hands RF average cycle time, everyone is playing the same game and everyone plays perfectly.

You claim the casino will make lots of money before the RF is hit. Ok, let's see how much money they will make. The 40K hands at $5 a hand represents a total of $200K gambled. The machines return 94.5% outside of the RF so that means the casino will make 5.5% of the $200K that was gambled. That is $11,000.

Are you with me so far?

Now, a player finally hits the RF on the 40,000th hand. The progressive meter has been rising at the 4% rate so that 4% of the $200K ($8K) has been added to reset value of $4K. The total progressive is now $12K. So, the casino took in $11K and now pays out $12K.

Tell us how the casino is making money.

I was working on a similar analysis yesterday. If we are talking about the $1 Super Double Bonus machine that returns 96.87%, you would actually need much more than $200,000 played through the machines because the 4% is divided among 8 machines. To get the progressive up to $9450 (breakeven point), or $4450 more than the reset value, you would need $890,000 coin in combined on the bank of 8 machines.

$890,000 X 4% = $35,600

$35,600 / 8 = $4450 added to the machine's progressive which now becomes breakeven.

Let's say you start playing this machine when the progressive was already at the breakeven point of $9450. 40,000 hands later you hit the progressive royal. To keep it simple let's say no one else is playing.

40,000 hands X $5 per hand = $200,000 coin in.

$200,000 X 4% = $8,000

$8000 / 8 = $1000 added to the machines' progressive which you hit

Progressive meter should now be at $9450 + $1000 = $10,450.

After $200,000 coin in, and no royal, the amount returned would be only 94.87% or $189,740.

You then hit the Royal, and the amount returned becomes $189,740 + $10,450 = $200,190.

So, lets say you play 800 hands an hour. You "worked" 50 hours, and made $190, or made $3.80 per hour, and that's only with 100% strategy perfect play!

Someone correct my math, that can't be right can it?

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