Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

Arc, the progressive meter on any individual game does not increase by 4%. the progressive meter on an individual machine increases by one-eighth of 4%. did you figure that?

So when one of the individual games hits do the progressives reset on all eight games allowing the casino to get the other 7/8's of the 4%. Does does that whole 4% have to go to the players eventually?

If the casino gets to keep that 7/8 of the 4% then Arc's math is wrong. If all 4% has to go to some player eventually, his math on the total casino hold is right.

From his article:

The progression rate for the games is 4.0% --- which is higher than you've likely seen before. (And when you add a 4.0% meter to games that return more than 96% at base --- this adds up to more than 100% --- with full slot club points and benefits). But it's a different sort of 4.0% than you're used to as well. The meters are all separate --- namely the Deuces Wild dollar meter could be at $13,200, while the Joker Wild meter could be at $12,800, while the Double Double Bonus meter could be at $10,700, down to the Bonus Poker meter (which was just hit in our example), is barely over $4,000. The 4.0% consists of 0.5% to each of the eight separate royal flush meters.

Yes, I stated all the players were playing the same game. But it doesn't matter. The 4% is going into the games and they will eventually be hit at around 40K hands. I could provide you with a more complicated scenario but the bottom line is still 96.5 + 4 > 100.

The key from the casinos point of view is the 94.5% number is representative of perfect play. What really happens is the play will likely be between 90-94% depending on the game and who is playing. If we take 92% as the average then the casino gains back the .5% it loses from perfect play plus another 2%. As I stated before this is all due to player errors.

The key is you started playing the progressive just when it barely became positive. If a person plays with a small edge they won't make much money. However, the progressives will continue to grow and the good APers will only start playing when they are well over 100%. That will increase their hourly win rate.

In addition, you assumed no one else was playing. That's not very likely.

Arc wrote: "the good APers will only start playing when they are well over 100%. That will increase their hourly win rate."

There is a lot of wishfull thinking attached to this, isnt there?

And as you point out, Arc, "you assumed no one else was playing. That's not very likely."

And while the math might favor one very lucky player, I dont think the guys at the M think they are going to lose on this. Unless someone gets very lucky and hits a lot of royals very quickly. For this reason, I understand that Dan and Barb have already had their photos circulated and trespass warnings have been prepared. (just joking)

That assumption was just to make the calculation easier. Of course others will be playing.

For the purpose of my post, I just needed a number to show how little the machine actually returns on a per hour basis. The dynamics of these machines makes it impossible to get an exact number on the progressive, because you have up to 8 machines feeding it.

Arc, as an advantage player, how much would the royal have to be before you would play it? Using my simplified example, the progressive would have to be at $11,260 if it hit on your 40,000th hand to both recoup your losses and earn $20 per hour.

These machines are more like slot machines. The vast majority of players who play them will lose money, and a few lucky individuals will have nice pay days. Psychologically it's comforting when we tell ourselves that we're playing a positive expectation game, but let's not kid ourselves. If you don't hit that royal, you're going to lose a lot of money. And if you do hit it, you're hoping to hit it earlier rather than later.

BINGO !!!! "Psychologically it's comforting when we tell ourselves that we're playing a positive expectation game, but let's not kid ourselves. If you don't hit that royal, you're going to lose a lot of money." a2a3dseddie gets it.

So why wouldnt an AP play a VP game with a better paytable and reduce the risk?

And really, are you going to take on the risk of the M progressives just to eke out $4 an hour? Even at $20 an hour how much of a starting bankroll would you need?

And I can still picture "Greta from Green Valley" strolling up to a machine, putting in $100, and grabbing the progressive leaving the "team" high and dry.

The people that play this game should have a good sized bankroll. I noted earlier they could expect to lose $11,000 for every $12,000 royal they hit. That's a lot of money and they could hit a 2-5 RF drought at any time. I wouldn't play this with less than $50K bankroll.

In addition, this play has to be compared to other plays in the valley. Given an equal return I'd always go for the game with a lower variance. I'd generally wait for the edge to reach 1% but I have a feeling I would never get a seat, so I probably wouldn't play.

With 8 machines you will typically see a couple a RFs a day once the progressives get high. Sure, some of those will be won by the Gretas, but that is not the norm.