Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

Right, but when nearly 98% of the return is coming from the other hands, 75% of the return being from hands full house and lower... In the long run, you sit at the 9/6 JoB for the extra chances you will have at hitting the royal from the extra pay on the FH and FL...

If you get 10 full houses on a 9/6 machine, you would have 20 more pushes of the button getting 10 full houses on a 7/5... and you should see thousands of Full Houses and Flushes between royal flushes...

I mean, say you get 1000 full houses before you hit a royal that pays 5000 coins rather than 4000 coins...

on a 9/6 machine, you would have gotten 2,000 more plays than on a 7/5 machine... those 2,000 plays are worth 10,000 coins... id take the 1,000 smaller wins over the 5,000 royal any day...

and id take thousands of two pairs that pay double over 4AWAK... but I do admit, getting 4AWAK is a lot of fun...

(maybe I have changed in my new old age)...

One way to experience the fact that the RF is just a small part of the overall return is to play 100 play VP. If you are dealt a FH playing 9:1 you get 4500 credits. That is more than the RF (non-progressive) and occurs more often than you hit the royal.

Or maybe you never have, and possibly never will, understand what the word RANDOM means. I.e. the full houses, flushes, and royal flushes are not connected to each other in ANY way.

Roadtrip, I just plugged those JOB numbers into a tracker and it came up with 100% at $10540 on a $ machine or $2635 on a .25 machine. One or both of our trackers isn't very accurate. In regard to the "poor" paytables ......I think alanleroy and arc are on the right track. With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback, which results in an EV+ game. Granted , AS WITH ALL VP, you need to get close to your share of RFs to win money. It gets even better for the expert player because he will always be playing the most profitable choice of the 8 games correctly while the non-expert is donating to the expert by either not playing the most profitable game or/and playing it incorrectly. I would guess that there would be an EV+ opportunity 90% of the time. The game will be volatile, if your plan is to play for 2 hours between the buffet and the show you'll lose more often than you'll win. This would be an ideal game for resident semi-pros (which probably reflects Dancer's VP class audience)who play 20 or more hours a week.

Without even asking what tracker you used, I'll say that yours is most likely more accurate than the one I used, since mine is "free", and I expect that I have what I paid for. LOL.

Fortunately, I'm in Florida so will not be tempted to play them unless/until I next visit Vegas. By than, there should be more data. Of course, without better, many profitable coupons, winning a WSOP seat, or major lotto win, I may never visit again. ::: shrug ::: No reason to spend money to visit when I can do the same things here at home with far fewer expenses to overcome.

Although I strongly consider myself an advantage player, I'm not looking for "small" advantages. I usually will seek the bigger overlay short term opportunity. (ie: match play) I don't mind "gambling" on the one decision type outcome when there is a significant advantage long term. Yes, I have far far fewer such opportunities, but it only takes one reasonable winner to be ahead for a long long time.

I "found" $32.00 the other day in a $100.00 denomination 3 reel slot. I put in a Bennie and took a chance, rather than cash out, and risk being spotted as a silver miner. I should have saved my $68.00. (Second time this year in that machine. Last one was $50.00, same result.) At least I earned some points. ::: shrug ::: And, I'd make that play again, and again. I guess someone inebriated inserted a TITO and forgot there was "extra" left over when done losing. Also found a bonus multiplier on "crack" so made one play there to no avail. Oh well. Went back and continued to play live poker and ended with a small win for the entire day.

My point is that personally I'd generally wait for a much larger progressive, rather than seek less than several percentage points (not including CB, points, etc) simply because I would not have enough "playtime" hours to have an expectation of coming out ahead without hitting a royal.

Yet, historically, I do consider myself "in the long run" because of all the hours I've spent in casino's, and will continue to spend. So one or two plays is acceptable to me, since it's still all part of my "long run".

I never said that the hands are not random.. its possible to get 5 royals in a row... its also possible never to experience a fullhouse..

What's your issue?

In the long term, you SHOULD experience more two pairs, flushes, full houses than royals... if you experience otherwise good for you.

Valid point, slap. The worst VP games, for me anyway, are poor total return plus high volatility. These particular games however are designed to have huge RF payouts. I wouldn't be surprised to see $5000-$6000 payout on a .25 machine. At that point the expected return % would be much higher than the return % of all the full houses you would expect to get even if the FHs paid 9,10, or15-1. An analogy, paying $1 for a 10-1 shot at winning $5 is a bad bet, to win $12 would be EV+ but perhaps not to tempting, but $1 for a 10-1 shot at $1000 is just too good to pass up.

If I walk buy a $0.25 machine and has a Royal payout of $5000 you bet I will be at that machine...

The Second it hits, im out the door though...

Arc, I dont know how you are figuring the math. I only know what the law is on progressive jackpots and the law says what is collected towards progressives and goes into the progressive jackpot MUST be paid out. The casino can't hold it. If 25-cents per hand is withheld towards a progressive, then that 25-cents per hand must be paid out. This is the law. Call the NGC and ask them. If you get a different answer, quote the official and I'll call him.

edited to add: You might want to figure the "progressive payout" as it applies to how the player views the hold, but the casino can never "hold" that progressive money. The progressive money (over and above the base level) "belongs" to the players.

Arc, here is the point of confusion.

You wrote: 2> The money paid out always comes out of the casino's pocket. The question is did the machine get enough play before the RF is hit to make up for it. This will vary on each RF but should work out the the advantage of the casino as long as lots of poor players play them.

I think I made the mistake here. So to clarify: The base amount of the royal comes out of the casino's pocket. The progressive amount above the base amount which was contributed by the players never belongs to the casino and it never comes out of the casino's pocket.

How about if on that same machine there is another game with a jackpot of $4300?