Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Arc, I dont know how you are figuring the math. I only know what the law is on progressive jackpots and the law says what is collected towards progressives and goes into the progressive jackpot MUST be paid out. The casino can't hold it. If 25-cents per hand is withheld towards a progressive, then that 25-cents per hand must be paid out. This is the law. Call the NGC and ask them. If you get a different answer, quote the official and I'll call him.


I think that's exactly what he says.
These are in fact over 100% games. The casino will make money, as always, by errors and imperfect strategies. Some of these games have fairly tricky and counter-intuitive plays. Additionally, when the meters become positive the (Ahem) "pro's" will play a chase the royal strategy that will further degrade the actual return. I expect this game will return about 98% to the player which is a good deal for them.
The only issue is will there be enough people stupid enough to build up these meters on some truly horrid games. Especially in dollars, where a single hour of play will easily burn out a ploppy with a $500 loss.
I have to give credit to Frank and "Bob" on this. At least they are trying.
I updated and edited my previous post, so please take a look.

These games might become over 100% for the players should the progressives get big enough, but the casino will always make a profit on these games because whatever "extra" is paid to the players in the form of the progressive jackpot is not coming out of the casino's pockets -- its simply money being shifted from one player to another... or in this case from many players to the lucky winner.

let me explain it this way... with the 6/5 bonus paytable as an example: the casino will always make a profit with a 6/5 bonus paytable with a 4,000 coin royal. if the progressive on the royal ever reaches 1-million coins, the casino will still have a profit on this game, because all of the progressive amount over the 4,000 coins was nothing more than other players money held in a "special account" that the casino could never touch.

the bottom line here is that the casino wants the progressives to become huge, because it will get more players playing a game that will generate big profits for the casino. and when the progressive is hit, the casino is simply shifting over the money collected from the other players that they contributed to the progressive pool.
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
These games might become over 100% for the players should the progressives get big enough, but the casino will always make a profit on these games because whatever "extra" is paid to the players in the form of the progressive jackpot is not coming out of the casino's pockets -- its simply money being shifted from one player to another... or in this case from many players to the lucky winner.


Actually the money is being shifted from the 'house edge' to the players...not from one player to another. Think of it this way. Just suppose it's just you playing the same game....but it's not a progressive game...for 100,000 hands and finally hit the Royal. The house made your coin-in minus all your payouts.

Now suppose you play that game again and get the same exact 100,000 hands but it's the progressive version. The house made your coin-in (the same) minus all your payouts (the same) minus the progressive. The only pocket that had money shifted out in the progressive version was the casino's pocket. This is true regardless how how many people are playing and why setting the jackpot hold percent is critical to whether it's a winning or losing game.

An extra credit thought....What if 75% of the coin-in went to the jackpot....with the same paytables...According to your logic only the players would lose...when it should be obvious that the casino would lose their butts in that scenerio....because they make a 4% or so profit on the game, while losing 75% of the coin it...Got it?


I'm not quite so certain that the "pros" will ever play a "true" chase the royal strategy, even if the jackpot is truly enormous, and their "team" has all the machines locked up for however long it will take them playing with an "unlimited" bankroll. Just not financially responsible. (IMO)

I played for a short while, on my software using the "go for the royal all the time" strategy. I tossed pays, and often drew 5 cards. I truly went for the royal every hand.

I lose my ass. One session, I had quads 3 times, my best session, and still lost 95 units. (JOB) I played a total of 3 sessions, 200 deals per, and my losses were ridiculously high. (Set the RF at 11,000)


The pros will develop a hybrid strategy to maximize the EV. Just because the RF makes the game +EV doesn't mean the proper strategy is to go for the royal all the time. The proper strategy might not even change and doesn't have to change if the game is +EV.
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Originally posted by: snidely333
The pros will develop a hybrid strategy to maximize the EV. Just because the RF makes the game +EV doesn't mean the proper strategy is to go for the royal all the time. The proper strategy might not even change and doesn't have to change if the game is +EV.


Playing JOB with a .25 RFof $4850 with the hand *10JQ*QQ best play is to go for the RF, but with the jackpot that high any reasonable strategy would beEV+.
alanleroy what is the point you are trying to make? my point is that the casino will make a ton of money from this game. do you dispute that? I also point out that the rising progressive jackpot might increase the payback for the player that wins but at the same time, the progressive does not affect the casino's win because of the basic paytable and because the progressive is built by the players themselves. do you dispute that?
Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
alanleroy what is the point you are trying to make? my point is that the casino will make a ton of money from this game. do you dispute that? I also point out that the rising progressive jackpot might increase the payback for the player that wins but at the same time, the progressive does not affect the casino's win because of the basic paytable and because the progressive is built by the players themselves. do you dispute that?

My point is that the money for the progressive is actually coming directly from the casino's edge. This seems like the exact opposite of what you're saying. You seem to think the player's are somehow kicking in extra money to build the jackpot...like the jackpot bet in caribbean stud. That's not how it works. Every dollar the casino contributes to the jackpot is a dollar less profit in their pocket...It's adding to the player expected value.

Whether the casino makes money or loses money is directly tied to what percentage they kick into the jackpot...so it really does matter 'whatever extra' is paid. It matters very much. Did you get my 75% hold example? Do you dispute that the casino loses money in that scenerio? If it was as you claim, that the progressive is built only by the players, then there would be no way for the casino to lose...right? Yet if they were contributing 75% of the coin-in to the jackpot there would be no way for them to win.

the money from the progressive does NOT come from the casino's edge. BUT the larger the progressive, the better it is for the players.

the casino's edge is built into the basic paytable which includes the BASE royal flush jackpot. ALL of the contributions to the progressive come from the players who are playing the lower pay table. The casino cannot lose even if the progressive goes up to a gazillion dollars.

THE CASINO DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROGRESSIVE OVER AND ABOVE THE BASIC PAY FOR A ROYAL FLUSH. The casino does NOT put any extra money towards the royal. This is what you are missing.
The casin benefits from all the other play at the crappy pay table.

The royal or progressive is a wash
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