Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Arc and others, I think the confusion here is about the terms being used here such as "edge" and payback and money won by the casino.

What I am talking about are separate things. Maybe this approach will clear this up.

1. the casino has a reduced paytable that allows a portion of the players' bets to go into the progressive jackpot pool. at the same time, what is considered a "full bet" by the players is not reduced (obviously).

2. as the progressive royal rises, the payback or edge increases for the players. If you want to say that decreases the edge for the house, well go ahead and say it. because in terms of dollars and cents it doesnt matter to the casino at all. "edge" is a meaningless term to the casino. the casino wants $$$.

3. the casino doesnt care if the progressive gets hit or not because its just the players money being returned to the players. and the casino is still making its pre determined profit using the reduced paytable. the reduced paytable already accounts for the base amount of the royal. anything above the base amount of the royal came from the players who suffered their loss using the reduced paytable.

that's my point. the casino doesnt care about the progressive being hit for huge amounts of money.

what would hurt the casino? what would hurt the casino is if some player walks up to a machine and hits the royal, then hits it again, and again and again without the progressive increasing at all. because the royal isnt supposed to hit more than 1 out of 42,000 times (or whatever).

the casino actually wants the progressive to build to huge amounts because as it does two things are happening:

1. more players are playing a game with a reduced paytable that will give the casino more $$$ profits
2. the progressive will rise in $$ value luring even more players to play the poor paytable that gives the casino more $$$ profits.

In the case of Bonus Poker there is a 6/5 paytable for this progressive. it is that 6/5 paytable which allows the players contribution to fund the progressive and for the casino to still make a boatload of profit. if it were a standard 8/5 paytable the casino could not allow the progressive to increase so quickly because it would hurt the casino's profits.

does this clear it up?

Let me give you another "make believe game" to illustrate what I am talking about.

I give you one die to roll. there are six sides to the die. it costs you $6 to roll this six-sided die. if you roll a "6" I will pay you the progressive. the progressive starts at $5 which is also the payout for any other number.

now, if you roll any other number besides the 6, I will pay you $5. and with each roll the "progressive on the 6" will increase by 50-cents.

the casino always will make a profit on every roll. at some point the progressive might be huge but the casino still made its profit. and this is because the progressive jackpot was funded by the reduced paytable for rolling the dice (bet 6 to win 5).

this is, in effect, what the casino is doing with this video poker game.

Now, you can attach whatever "edges" you want to this, but the bottom line is that the casino makes money. and thats my point. because even if the progressive gets to be a huge amount, the money came from the players.

and getting back to Nevada gaming regulations: this is why "progressives" must be hit. because it is determined that the progressive is based on contributions by players who played a reduced pay table. this is why the Majestic Lions machine at the MGM is now at about 2.2-million and why there is a single Red White And Blue slot at Caesars with a jackpot of about a half million. These are the last of the progressives that must be hit because its the players' money which was contributed to the jackpot pool as part of a reduced pay table.


Very good parallel, Money, but perhaps this will clear things up (I really, really doubt it), what happens if you increase the progressive not by 50 cents, but by one dollar and 50 cents each time. This is what those video games would do.
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Oh...one more thought on this...If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?

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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
Sure
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Oh...one more thought on this...If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?


Sure, when a jackpot becomes a huge overlay you'd like to move the whole bank of machines into your living room, but all you can do is get your money in right and if you do that often enough you'll do just fine. I really think with these machines good spots are going to come up almost constantly.
oobiedoobie, if you are telling me that the casino will lose money on these progressives I will be very surprised. I dont know of any game in a casino that is designed to lose money. even the so called positive payback VP games are not designed to lose money. they are designed to lure players who will think that they can beat it. (maybe some one will, but the casino knows there will be enough who won't.)

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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Anyone who could actually write such a thing needs to go back to buying his liquor at licensed establishments.

I stand by that comparison.
Well, it must be valid, then. We wouldn't want to violate the rule that an assertion made twice is valid.
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Originally posted by: alanleroy If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?
Yes, before his untimely death, Albert Einstein proved this exact point: Your chance of hitting the jackpot first depends on your chance of hitting it second.
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
oobiedoobie, if you are telling me that the casino will lose money on these progressives I will be very surprised. I dont know of any game in a casino that is designed to lose money. even the so called positive payback VP games are not designed to lose money. they are designed to lure players who will think that they can beat it. (maybe some one will, but the casino knows there will be enough who won't.)


Once again, good point, the casino should make plenty of money on these machines. Very few players know how to play any one of these progressive at the optimum level. Only a handful know all 8 (including knowing all the cutoff points for strategy changes based on the size of the RF payout for each game). Among that handful some might be addiicted to other games and give the M their money right back. Those of Dancer's ilk wouldn't be interested in the game because of its small size. But its an ideal game for an LV local who doesn't mind putting in some study and plenty of playing time to win a few hundred a week.A solid player will beat the casino for some money but most of his profit will come from the playing errors of those who cant play at his level.
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: alanleroy If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?
Yes, before his untimely death, Albert Einstein proved this exact point: Your chance of hitting the jackpot first depends on your chance of hitting it second.


nevermind...you wouldn't get it anyway.
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Oh...one more thought on this...If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?


IF you're going to try to calculate the probability of hitting the RF before another player, than you also have to consider the other player/players speed of play, and other possible factors such as "expertise/strategy", and experience.

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Originally posted by: RoadTrip
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Oh...one more thought on this...If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?


IF you're going to try to calculate the probability of hitting the RF before another player, than you also have to consider the other player/players speed of play, and other possible factors such as "expertise/strategy", and experience.

Right. My point was that if the jackpot is huge and there are another 10 players going for it, your enhanced EV due to the big jackpot is only 1/10 (+ the other factors you mention) what it would be otherwise...even though the combined additional EV is the full amount.
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: RoadTrip
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie With perfect play after the first week or so a 96+% payback with 4% added to the progressive is equivalent to a 96+% payback with 4% cashback,
Oh...one more thought on this...If new players are drawn to the game when jackpots are higher doesn't that also impact the individual player's probability of winning the jackpot? Of course your chance of hitting a royal is the same, but you're competing for the jackpot, so should the real calculation include the probability of hitting a royal before someone else?


IF you're going to try to calculate the probability of hitting the RF before another player, than you also have to consider the other player/players speed of play, and other possible factors such as "expertise/strategy", and experience.

Right. My point was that if the jackpot is huge and there are another 10 players going for it, your enhanced EV due to the big jackpot is only 1/10 (+ the other factors you mention) what it would be otherwise...even though the combined additional EV is the full amount.


The number of players/machines in use are a factor. However, depending on the "lineup" of the competition, it is conceivable that your enhanced EV may be minutely larger, or smaller than 10% if there are a total of 10 machines.

IF the competition were 9 "Dancers", and "me", I would expect my EV to be ever so minimally less than if the competition were 9 "First time never played before drunk tourists".

Of course, the drunken douche bag tourist is going to hit my RF, but that's a different law of probability. "Murphy's". LOL

Like a poker tournament with 100 players, the "pro" can calculate his EV as higher than 1% because of "dead money". I think that approach could apply to these banks of machines to a somewhat lesser degree.



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