Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

You cant figure just 1/10...

It will depend on how many hands per minute people are playing (some may just be sitting there playing one hand every 2 minutes taking up space for someone else)...

If you are playing 10 hands per minute faster than the total average of everyone else etc...

It might be just a matter of semantics, but your EV, which is usually expressed as a % doesn't change based on other players chasing YOUR royal. What changes is your probability of getting it. With ten people chasing it who are playing fairly quickly the over/under would probably be 2hr. 30 min. On these machines, however, it is likely that 2 or 3 will be playing a different game and another 2 or 3 will be playing liesurely.

These game have way too high variance to interest me. However to keep it simple:
1. Those who only play these games when the royal is positive are playing with an "advantage" however minute and theoretical it is.
2. Those who play these horrible, horrible games at 96, 97 or 98 percent should be able to write their losses off as a `charitable deduction.

I understand what you're saying...When I slap the button and the big jockpot is up for grabls, my EV is the Paytable + some extra EV from the oversized jackpot...and that has no regard for how many others are playing...

When I decide to play the game...(before I ever slap a button), and I know there are 10 or 100 other players going for the jackpot, doesn't that reduce my expected win %? I'm going to hit far fewer jackpots than if it was just me playing...so how could it not be a variable of some kind in the expected value of playing that game....or is EV a one-time shot that can only be calutated based at the time of the slap?

What ooobie says with a caveat....

Your individual EV will change on every deal, (assuming perfect strategy at that jackpot amount) because the progressive increases on every deal along the way until the RF is hit. BUT, that increase in EV before each new deal for you will be in micro miniscule increments that are basically to small to influence it from deal to deal, although it probably should influence you "periodically" as certain RF jackpot levels are reached and the rate per "time increment" that the RF builds.

As the jackpot builds, you EV should increase. If/when you change strategies, "exceptions" into your game play, your EV may change.

The probability of hitting the RF will also change, but that is not a function of EV, that relates to the number of hands per hour you complete versus the total number of hands per hour from the competition, and the strategy the other players are using versus the RF probability for your strategy. As players come and go, the probability of the RF will change.

First you need to calculate the probability that the progressive will be hit and then you need to calculate the probability that it will be you. The probability that YOU hit the RF certainly affects YOUR EV.

OK. Could someone refresh my memory and tell me what the point of this discussion is again?

the only point I wanted to make is that the casino will make a buncle from this.

there are many other points of discussion.

Please help me follow the conversation?

thanks.

Oh, now I get it. As the ratio (hands I play / hands other people play) increases, my chance of getting a royal increases. How could I have been so stupid? Shall we call this the "alanleroy ratio?"

Does anyone know where, inside the VP machine, the number of hands I play gets tracked? Do all VP machines have this device, or just those linked to progressive jackpots?

If I understand correctly, I can play normal VP machines at my leisure, because the RF is inside the machine waiting for my next play, but when there's a progressive, I should play as fast as humanly possible, so the opportunity doesn't slip away. Smart, very smart. We've all heard of "street smarts," but you guys, you guys have "casino smarts!!"

If you're just playing these machines when the progressive is high, the only reason you're playing that machine is to try and hit the Royal...otherwise it's just a poor paytable.

Now when you stroll up to the bank of progressives would you rather be the only player or would you not care that there are 10 others or 100 others or 1000 others? I'd rather be the only player, but you don't seem to care.

As I pointed out earlier, the instant you slap your button and the progressive is high, you're obviously playing for that big jackpot and your EV is the standard paytable + whatever extra comes from the jackpot...But when you're looking at a 'session' where you intend to play until the big Jackpot is hit, your results are directly influenced by the number of other players.

If there are 10 other players, you are going to be the one to win the Jackpot 10% of the time. Certainly over time (like when you then play 10 of these sessions against 10 other players) it all works out...but that's assuming these big jackpot opportunities are going to occur another 10 times. If you're just looking at the one session going for the Royal Jackpot, I don't see how the number of other players couldn't influence your chances.

Oh and no reason for you to act like an asshole about it. Please see the 'Were you cool thread?'.

Lots of strange comments. The EV of a game is something that only relates to the hand you are playing. It doesn't matter who else is playing a bank of progressive machines. It is what it is, nothing more, nothing less.

Remember all hands are independent events. All hands are separate bets.