Bob Dancer's new progressive games at the M

And with a progressive, the EV is a variable.

Yes, it changes every hand that is played. However, the amount of change is usually pretty insignificant. I know a few people who only change strategy at $100 increments of the progressive due to this minor effect.

Um, no, you won't. First off, that's 11 players, so the number you're looking for is 9.0909090909%. And secondly, that number is something that exist only in your mind. If you want to create that number in your mind, if that makes you feel good, fine. But don't try to pass it off as something other than something you made up to make you feel good. And then I won't be such an asshole. When the jackpot is hit, one can IMAGINE that the other players would have been more likely to get it if that player hadn't. But in truth, their chances weren't changed at all by the activity of the other player.

if there are ten machines, and you are one among ten players, your chance of hitting the royal on your next play is still about one in 40-thousand (depending on the game).

if you are always among the ten players on the ten machines then over time you have a 10% chance of being the one who gets the royal. but on each hand you still have a one in 40-thousand chance of getting the royal.

is this what everyone is saying??

That's what I've said a few different ways. Others seem to think that 10% chance and competing against the others for the jackpot is not relevant....and they're probably right in the world of theoretical probability..and perhaps EV is not the right word I should have used in suggesting the number of players matter...it's all going to work out if you have enough shots at a high jackpot.

Remember...the only reason a 'pro' would play one of these machines is when the jackpot gets high enough to turn a poor machine positive....so your intent is to hit the Royal Jackpot for this play to be a winner for you.

In the real world, of draggin' one's butt to the casino to play for hours to nail a high jackpot, competing against 10 others to get that jackpot makes a difference.....You'll need to play for several of these jackpots in order to get to the 'long run'...just to account for the jackpot competition. And how often do we expect thse +EV jackpots? ....and if it's not that frequent...like once a year, maybe you can never offset the competition...So maybe 1 wins big and 9 lose, but in total it's a winning game for the player(s) (When the jackpot is high)...But is a game where 90% lose a good bet? Maybe, maybe not.

Oh and MrJackass, I know I am not reporting the exact probablility here, I know in a 96% game, there are going to be some winners and some losers and it's not going to be 90% losers...but this was not meant to be an exact mathmatical probability...but a conceptual discussion....and the question is DOES THE NUMBER OF PLAYERS GOING FOR THE JACKPOT MATTER ON A PROGRESSIVE VP GAME. Maybe not in terms of the long run probabilities, but maybe so in terms of the real world practical application.

Here's a couple of things to keep in mind on this particular game.

1) Each game has its progressive jackpot increased by .5% by the current group of players. So, if Deuces is the only positive game and everyone is playing it, the other games will continue to increase. That makes it more likely that one of them will become positive while everyone is playing for the Deuces royal.

2) Because each game only goes up at .5% it's going to take a long tme for a reset game to become positive.

A team forms to play these progressive game. 12 team members show up to play 10 machines. 10 will play, and 2 will be back up for toilet breaks (the team plans to play until the BIG RF is hit) but only 9 seats are available. MoneyLA is sitting there playing and he's not leaving until the BIG RF hits. Does the team now calculate their chance to get the BIG RF is now 90% whereas if they had all the seats, it would have been 100%? Doesn't this reduction is probability they hit the BIG RF affect their EV?

Yeah, which means the royals are likely to start coming BEFORE any of the games turn positive.
I think it's a cute system though-I hope it works. Ploppies are going to take a major ass-raping to get that first meter up to 100% though.

No, it doesn't affect the EV. That is a mathematical term. It simply means that there's a chance they will not win the jackpot. There's always a chance of that happening. They could also go bankrupt before winning.

arcimedes, you are correct when you said: "It simply means that there's a chance they will not win the jackpot. There's always a chance of that happening. They could also go bankrupt before winning."

And I want to point out what melbedewey said: "the royals are likely to start coming BEFORE any of the games turn positive." this is also correct as it relates to players. but to the casino it doesnt matter. the casino will profit on these machines no matter how big or little the royal hits UNLESS the royal hits more often that the odds of a royal say it will happen in which case even a lousy paytable could end up killing a casino.

But I have faith that the royals will not hit more than expected. Im at more than 59-thousand hands now this year without a royal. Dan is getting all of mine on those nickel machines, damnt.