Cosmo counts odds bet at Craps

Jeez, this discussion again?

It's simple: If you have a BR that can handle the swings, max odds reduces the HA. The higher allowed odds, the more you reduce HA, since both flat and odds are decided by the same event (whether shooter makes point or 7s out). End of discussion.

So DeMango, while the flat-only bet is an expected loss of 14 cents/hand (actually, 14.1 cents), you can reduce that to 8.6 cents with single odds, or just over 6 cents with double odds, etc. Again assuming your BR can handle the swings.

While Money's comments seem to suggest a greater fear of losing than acknowledging the upside of winning, this is not at all uncommon. I guess this by the tone of his responses, and when he says silly things like

I haven't seen anyone here say that you can use the math to 'beat' the game of craps. People (and me, in other threads) have merely said that it helps increase your chances of winning during a session (at the cost of some hefty variance, to be sure). Your aguments would be taken more seriously if you refrained from feeding us a steady diet of strawmen.

PPS If we go back to the original intent of the OP, you sort of *can* use math to 'beat' the game... assuming you count as income/value the increased comps you get by having the back-of-the-line money included in comp calculations. Surely those have some value, especially to the sharps that peruse this board.

The double up feature in VP also has no house edge. Does it mean that you should play it every time it's available? If so, you are doomed to lose all your bank roll, since you will double up your winnings until you lose - after all, this bet has no house edge and is the best bet in the house, right?

shlomo, why dont you just READ again what I wrote, which you quoted:

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Money, when you tell Maddy


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And while mentioning blackjack, please dont insult me with stupid comments like "Money is 6/5 BJ the same as 3/2 BJ because there is really no advantage to the player by your logic." I never said such a thing or implied such a thing. Why create false comments?
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Keep in mind that you do it all the time. In this very thread, you said


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there is NO way to beat the casino at the game of craps using MATH. Math will not win the game of craps.

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Craps has nothing to do with BJ. Math can help you win in blackjack. Math cannot help you win in craps.

Now, Im really going to bust your bubble. Read this and consider this and learn this:

CRAPS IS A NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME. THE MORE YOU PLAY THE MORE YOU WILL LOSE. AND REDUCING THE HA BY BETTING BIGGER ODDS DOES NOT MAKE THE NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME A POSITIVE EXPECTATION GAME.

Now, there is one way to win at craps, but you and too many others don't believe it.

Happy new year Shlomo and to everyone! May 2011 be filled with back to back 20 minute rolls.

More strawmen, eh Money? Really? That's all you got?

Nobody is saying that craps can be turned into a positive expectation game. No-bod-y. You can post this 50 more times and no reasonable person is going to disagree with you. Or if you wish to show where I've posted that taking full odds can turn into a positive expectation game, perhaps your arguments will have an iota of credibility.

What we ARE saying, is that the higher the HA, the more you will lose, on a percentage basis, over the long term. This IS math, and it's unavoidable. I know you understand this. And I also know you love to engage in silly arguments by taking the Devil's advocate position, I guess you're not very busy based on how much you do this (*and how many posts you make here).

To use your own example in a way that will hopefully help you get it..... you can think of craps with NO odds as 6/5 blackjack, and craps with full odds as 3/2. Both make payouts and determine winners by the same events. Both alter the HA (one by table selection, and the other by increasing your varience). I assume that you're smart enough to realize that one gives you a much better chance of winning during a session, and one doesn't. And neither will make you a winner over an infinite number of trials.

In this thread, you've suggested that one shouldn't take those big 100x odds at CR because if you're not lucky, you can lose all your money, etc. Then you tell some story of someone allegedly going broke doing that. I'm sure we could tell a million stories of such a thing, both going broke and making a lot of money. It's gambling, and there's variance.

I'm suggesting that the math proves that the way to give yourself the best chance of winning is to take max odds. And if you value the comps, as the original poster seems to do, then you can indeed come out ahead, so to speak, if you up your odds bets.

Hopefully I've made it clear to you now. And Happy New Year to you.

Unless odds are taken into account for your comps, there is no reason to bet them. They only increase volatility. Double up in VP only increases volatility because it doesn't give you slot points to play it. (If it did, you'd do it every time till you lost.)

shlomo, happy new year good friend.

here's what you said: "I'm suggesting that the math proves that the way to give yourself the best chance of winning is to take max odds."

here's what Im saying: the math cannot make you win.

Actually if you play triple odds low limit craps you can easily get enough in free rooms and offers to make it a positive play-depending on casino comp policies of course.
At 99.6% EV off the top it sure as hell beats the LOUSY video poker, 6-5 BJ and idiot slots most people on the "fabulous Strip" trip over themselves playing.

No one saw this, nobody corrected this, so one more time. The expected value of your line bet does not change no matter what amount of odds you place behind. Period. The expected value of a $10 line bet is negative 14 point one effen cents. No effen more, no effen less.

Nobody has said anything different. But if you bet triple odds you're bet is $40 and your EV is still "negative 14 point one effen cents. No effen more, no effen less." Which is less of a house edge than 9-6 JOB without even factoring in the multitude of errors in that game, as in all VP.
One thing I have never done is make a strategy error on a craps line bet.

Please re-read what I said. Nobody is saying that the math will 'make' you win. In gambling, you can win any game, regardless of HA. Hell, people even win the lottery from time to time, and that HA is something close to 50%.

I said that you have the best chance of winning, coming out ahead after a session, when you play games with lower HA. I know you know this. You've even told us before that you take full odds. Bully for you.

Odds lowers the HA. Therefore you have a better chance of winning when you take odds. The more you take, the better your chances. Not that you are guaranteed a win of course - just trying to give the best chance. Same as with playing 3/2 vs 6/5. Play BJ right (ie, the right table, with the right pays on BJ), you have a better chance. But still a negative HA game (unless you count), still a better chance that the house will beat you over time. But you have more of a fighting chance.