Cosmo counts odds bet at Craps

Self rightous dick brain, eh? Did you think that one up yourself, or have to go to the local 13 yr old to source that gem?

You have continually posted sob stories about these alleged highroller buddies of yours (I have my doubts - usually people with nothing to do but post all day, telling stories of former wealth and the living the high life are little more than posers.... but I digress....) anyway - these high rollers who lost all their money taking big odds at CR and other places. You did it even in this thread, in your third and fourth posts. You say, 'if you are not lucky you can lose it all!' and such.

At the end of the day, and over the long haul, luck has nothing to do with it, of course. It's all about the math. Just like in the theoritical 3/2 BJ vs 6/5 BJ matchup. Following the math gives you the better chance of winning money. And in that vein, the player is always better with the full odds since it lowers the HA, assuming their BR can handle the variance. If that was your point, as Speck surmised, then you made it quite clumsily IMHO.

I remember you carrying on a similar argument about 3-4 months ago, then when you were finally called on it, you deigned to share with us that you always take full odds. Well. From this conclusion, I can only surmise:

a) You enjoy arguing and taking Devil's Advocate positions on the interweb; or
b) You feel that these horror stories are your best way to protect the little guy from blowing his whole roll due to variance; or
c) It's a vehicle allowing you to change subjects often, perhaps in a misguided attempt to demonstrate to the community your vast knowledge of gaming policy (example: "if you bet $100 per throw of the dice but your $100 is only on the passline, you will have a much LOWER rating than a player with $25 on the pass + $75 on the hardways"..... dude, this has NOTHING to do with the OP)
d) You argue one position before the drugs kick in, and another after, causing you to reverse course

I don't know and I don't care. The point is, any casino gambling game can only be won in the short term by luck (except perhaps live poker, and BJ by a skilled counter). Since that is beyond the control of the player, let's ignore it. And the games with lower HA ALWAYS give the person the better chance, regardless of luck, of coming out ahead at the end of the session. Always. Every time. And despite what you seem to think, I'm not trying to suck players into anything. I only care about the truth.

If someone were to ask, what gives them the best chance to win (a goal of maybe 1/2 of the players in casinos), I'd tell them to bet pass (or don't pass) and take full odds. If they said, how can they maximize their time at the casino having fun, at minimal risk (a goal of the other half, probably), I'd tell them to do either pass or don't pass only, and leave it at that.

shlomo your theory is wrong. period.

here's what you said: "At the end of the day, and over the long haul, luck has nothing to do with it, of course. It's all about the math."

let me say it again. craps is a negative expectation game. no matter how much you bet, over time you will lose.

take your math skills and play blackjack or poker. yeah, if you think you will win at video poker go ahead and try that. you are not going to win at craps using math.

good bye.

ps. I take full odds because I can afford to take full odds. not because it is a "sure way" to win. craps is only a game of LUCK. Math does not matter. A monkey can have a hand that lasts two hours. A monkey can put all his money on 12 and roll a 12. thats craps. don't preach math at craps.

and one more thing, you wrote (and I love this one)

"If someone were to ask, what gives them the best chance to win (a goal of maybe 1/2 of the players in casinos), I'd tell them to bet pass (or don't pass) and take full odds."

OK. Lets say youre betting PASS and the point is 4 or 10. Do you still take FULL ODDS?? Do you still take full odds knowing that the CHANCE of winning is 3 to 1 against you?? do you know that the chance of winning the point of 4 or 10 is ALWAYS 3 to 1 against you?? do you know that the dice have no memory and do not know that they are supposed to win one out of three times?

Me? I always bet full odds on the 4 and 10. I can afford it. But I still have only a one in three chance of winning each and every time, And the dice don't know that the "math" says I should win one out of three times.

Let me tell you this: there's a reason why every dealer reminds you to bet your odds. And its not because the casino wants you to win. Its because the casino knows it is more likely to win that odds money every single time.

Now, if you want to talk about the "don't" its a different story. And if all casino craps players started betting the "don't" we'd soon have crapless craps without a dont pass and dont come. the game would be changed.

Honestly Money, I was about *this close* to thinking that we were in violent agreement. Honestly. Then you posted your latest diatribe (from 10:11a this morning) and now I'm dumbfounded. Absolutely dumbfounded.

You seem to suffer from multiple misconceptions:

a) you seem to think that taking odds on the 4 or 10 is somehow 'worse' than taking them on the 6 or 8. You aren't serious, are you? It MAKES NO DIFFERENCE in the end, due to the payouts which compensate you. None. I am quite sure you know this, so the fact that you'd say it here is borderline insanity.

b) you seem to think that there's a difference in playing the don'ts, odds-wise or chance-of-winning wise, than playing pass. I assume this from when you say

I completely agree with you. I only hope that you realize that there are ways to make it a much-less negative expectation game, giving one *a better chance* to win. Since so many people on this board enjoy the (incomprehensible to me) Video Poker, let's put it this way: if you play perfect strategy, are you more likely to come out ahead in a Jacks or Better that pays 8-5 or 9-6 for the full house/flush payouts? But both have casino house advantages, do they not? Are they the same game, giving the gambler the same chances of coming out a winner for the session? or put another way: are you more likely to win at a $25 min 'single 0' roulette wheel, vs a $5 'double-0' wheel, after the end of a session? Or come out ahead playing 5 coins-in which makes you eligable for the progressive, vs one coin-in which doesn't?

Inceasing the bet size (and variance) in exchange for a better chance (but still under 50%) of a positive session is SOP for casinos. Craps is no different.

shlomo we actually arent far apart. thank heaven you agree craps is a negative expectation game. play it to have fun. don't play it to think you can beat the casino.

but Im afraid that you have swallowed the "odds bet mantra" hook, line and sinker. because you wrote:

"you seem to think that taking odds on the 4 or 10 is somehow 'worse' than taking them on the 6 or 8. You aren't serious, are you? It MAKES NO DIFFERENCE in the end, due to the payouts which compensate you. None. I am quite sure you know this, so the fact that you'd say it here is borderline insanity."

this is what you overlook because you are married to your math. you overlook that you are a bigger underdog with the 4 and ten than you are with the 6 and 8.

Im going to guess that you are not a big player. so next time you are in a casino, watch how the big players bet: they bet heavy on the inside numbers and light on the outside numbers. why? because the inside numbers are more likely to hit.

your "odds" bet on 4 and 10 do in fact theoretically have NO house advantage, and also NO player advantage. So in the long run you will only BREAK EVEN on this money bet as odds on the four and ten. So let me ask you, being the intelligent person you are: why would you risk money on something with only a one in three chance of winning to only break even on it? why wouldnt you save that money to bet (or press) the 6 and 8 which have a 5 out of 6 chance of winning?

for heaven's sake, if you want to follow the math of the game, then USE THE MATH to improve your chances of winning.

You understand "volatility" and therefore you must accept the fact that the 4 or 10 will not win "like clockwork." there will be cold streaks where your odds on 4 and 10 will lose and lose and lose. and frankly, if you have a one in three chance of winning you might never get a winner in an entire session -- at worst.

of course, if you are playing with a DI (dice influencer) who favors the outside numbers, betting the odds on 4 and 10 might allow you to score a big win. But that has nothing to do with the math, does it.

you put too much faith into "math" for craps. your "math" belongs to poker and blackjack and video poker. not to the game of craps.

edited to add:

by the way, the casinos know exactly what I am talking about. In fact the policy for the HET casinos (now CE) is to rate craps players who bet the outisde numbers HIGHER than the players who stick with the inside numbers. the casinos do this because they know they are more likely to win on the outside numbers. If the casinos know this, why dont you?

And I am going to ask you one more time: why would the dealers always ask you to bet odds if they didnt think (that is the casino) they were more likely to make a profit on those odds? trust me, they are not asking you to bet odds so you can win the casino's money.

Most dealers couldn't give a shit if the casino lost or won money. In fact, most of them want you to win, since a) it will keep them busier as the table gets fuller, making time go by faster, and b) make it more likely you'll have something to tip them with. They ask if you want odds because they know it lowers the HA, gives the player a better shot at having some tipping chips laying around.

all I can say shlomo is the only casino for you to play at is CR and you should be nothing but a pass/100x odds and come/100x odds player. that's you. if youre not doing that you dont believe what you preach. best of luck to you.

Yo experts!!!!

As a "novice" at craps, what exactly does this odds bet mess really do for me?

Please reply in English please, not math formulas or gambling speak.

TiA

It lowers the house advantage by allowing you to cobble together a 'blended bet' - in other words, at the price of adding to the amount you are willing to gamble, you give yourself a better chance of coming out ahead at the end of the session.

As I said earlier, it's not different than playing 5 coins in to qualify for some progressive, or playing a $25 roulette wheel with a single zero instead of a $5 wheel with two zeros, or playing at a higher blind level of poker that miight have a lower percentage rake.

If all you want to do is hang out and chill and hoot 'n' holler when the shooter rolls the number, without the risk of losing much on a roll-by-roll basis, at the cost of having a more sure chance of having a losing session, then follow Money's advice.

If you want to maximize your chances of coming out ahead at the end of a session, at the cost of higher variance, then put up max allowed odds behind your pass or come bets (please don't tell me you would consider playing dark side, especially as a novice, unless you are a crotchedy old man with a Navy hat for a ship that was decomm'd 25 yrs ago - those are the only ones allowed to do that).

Allowed odds on the strip (and most downtown) are almost exclusively 3-4-5; you can put up to triple your pass bet on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9, and 5x on the 6 and 8. You are completely compensated for the extra risk (the 4 and 10 only come up half as often, roughly, as the 6 and 8) by the fact that those odds will get paid out at 2-1. The 5 and 9 odds are paid out at 3-2, and the 6 and 8 odds at 6-5. Those are the exact mathematical percentages of making those points before rolling a 7.

More details here.

Yeah, because that's not a non-sequitor....

chefantwon: for decades the "odds" bet, or the backline bet (the amount of extra money you can wager on the passline or come bet) was limited to 2X your flat bet or passline or come bet amount.

Then the casinos increased the odds amount as a way to induce players to risk more money. the lure of the odds bet was that it was paid at "true odds" meaning the chance of the number winning.

Odds are an inducement -- there is no house advantage, and there is no player advantage. You are risking more money with the hope of breaking even over the long run.

If you think you are more likely to win, you want to bet as much money as you can. if you don't think you are more likely to win, why would you risk more money on "luck?" its your choice.

at many casinos, what you bet as the "odds" has no impact on your rating or comps which is another reason not to bet the odds -- because there is no fringe benefits attached to the "odds money."

at casinos that do count the odds, you will find that the extra boost given to your rating or comps might be minimal-- you will have to ask.

While I dont see any mandatory reason to bet the odds, I do always bet full odds on the outside numbers because I tend to throw more outside numbers. On the flip side, I have a problem hitting 6s and 8s which ironically are supposed to be more likely to hit.

While my friend shlomo will tell you that the odds lower the house advantage (which is true) odds money will not turn the negative expectation game of craps into a positive expectation game. Again, all the odds bet does is lower the house's advantage -- it does not make the player more likely to win.

And again, the odds bet by itself has no house advantage -- it also has no player advantage. And the house is more likely to win (for right way players) because the odds are linked to the "flat bet" which ALWAYS has a house advantage.

By the way, the industry stat for the average amount bet as odds is 2X. If the odds bet was such a wonder bet for players, you'd think the industry average would be much more.

Craps, as much as we love it, is not a game for players to win. It is a game that by design the casino will win. If you want a better chance of winning, stick with blackjack, video poker and live poker or baccarat which is basically a coin flip game.

Also remember this: the casinos dont offer a bet that will cost them money. Even if the odds bet by itself has no player advantage. and no house advantage, the casino is still more likely to win that odds money from "right way players."

but for "wrong way" or "darkside players" the odds are in your favor which is way it costs more to win less. those casino guys are not dummies.