Cosmo counts odds bet at Craps

Since the original "debate" was specific to the odds portion of wagers, I still do not agree with your math, because of the way I am looking at the Odds wager. I treat it as a separate entity.

If you only examine the true odds add on wager when a point is established, and since you only make the odds bet after a point is established, and we know that the odds are always break even, your expectation on each specific hand is still the 1.41% of your line bet, or about $70.50 for the $5.00 x $1000 example trials.

If you wish to include all line bets, every pass &/or come bet made continuously throughout a session, and include the odds bets as well, than I am forced to accept the calculations of the Wizard and you, since I truly have no idea that I'd be willing to back. I accept that the overall house advantage is less for the amount of action wagered including odds, where the player would lose slightly more, and do see where the overall house advantage may differ from the 1.41% it is for a line bet.

But there is no way on earth that I'll be convinced that the expectation on the odds coupled with a line bet will be anything other than 1.41% of the line bet, when only those "qualifying" hands where odds are placed are taken into consideration to compute the expectation.

THAT is why I mentioned that the odds being rated for comps at the Cosmo may be considered a possible advantage play for those who consider comps "profit". Those true odds, the free odds, cost the player absolutely nothing when looked at as a separate and distinct wager, and that wager is made solely to benefit the player with additional comps.

Since odds are wagered after a point is already established, and because a pass or come bet is already in play for the hand, the odds could be considered a totally different and distinct game within the game. A "game" where the casino does not have the best of it when the player has sufficient bankroll, and the casino is giving additional comps on that action.

Your consistent line bet, pass or come, will lose according to expectation. 1.41% for the entire 5 x 1000 example trials. But you are making that wager anyway, and always. The overall house advantage is reduced when the total action is considered. But I maintain that your losses will still be 1.41% of your line bet, all the time. Add those up, and it should be the same $70.50 in the long run. Fancy math may change the appearance of that number, make is "seem" smaller, but that is what I still don't understand.

The free odds bets could, and I believe should be considered a "bonus" bet that always breaks even, but those additional free rooms, meals, or whatever will add up to "profit".

IF that is your thing.

Edited to add:

In a previous message in this thread, someone quoted the Wizard, who wrote: "It is worth noting that while taking the odds lowers the combined house edge, the expected loss remains the same."

And the expected loss is exactly 1.41% of a pass or come wager. So any math that shows anything different that that hypothetical and expected $70.50 @ $5.00 x 1000 perfect trials in my world of perfect expectation just confuses me and is what I don't understand.

To me, the logic does not seem to fit any other "claim", even if only $0.01 different.

Road, I'm pretty sure this thread has played out, but when you say

Yes, the expected total dollar value loss is the same, but since it's a much larger amount bet ($5k wagered vs $338k wagered in KayPea's example), you can see that it's a much smaller percentage. Therefore you only have to 'cheat the odds' many less times to end up a winner for the session.

One last comment: *any* gambling game at a casino is going to have a house advantage. Every one (except live poker I guess). Anyone who is planning on 'beating the house' knows that they need to get lucky, and beat the odds so to speak. My point is, it's a whole lot easier to beat those odds when the HA is lowered (from 1.41% to .6% with double odds, or even way lower with lots of odds). Playing without odds (which is fine if all you want to do is ensure you extend your session and reduce variance) means you have a lot more HA to cheat.

Same concept why I don't play that big spinning wheel, or the lottery, or horse racing - way too much of a HA or rake to have a sporting chance to beat the game. Same with live poker - would you rather play with a 5% rake or 10%? Most people say the 10% rakes are unbeatable, and I'd agree.

Let me say that we probably disagree because of semantics and intent. Overall, I do not disagree that the house advantage decreases when the odds bet is made and more money put into play. But since the line bet is constant, I maintain that the house "win" will remain constant, 1.41% of $5,000, even when $300+K is added into play. The odds are free. They cost nothing, win nothing over the same number of trial. Fancy math is not going to change "Free" into some sort of resort fee that costs more than it does. It only appears that way.

The percentages are an illusion, a tricky one at that. The extra $300K+ portion dilutes the math, and make it appear that much less is being lost percentage wise, when in actuality the casino is realizing the same "profit" from the player making the $5. x 1,000 line wagers, and the player next to him making the same play and adding full odds, and giving 60+ x more action.

Remember, we are talking about the world of perfect expectation, no deviation, no winners or cheating the odds. We all know that this is a negative expectation game, and we will lose long term.

I just maintain that since they guy on my left (Player "Thrifty") is betting $5 x 1,000 line bets, and Player "Big Bankroll" is betting $5 x 1,000 line bets plus taking full free odds, that at the end of those 1,000 hands, they will both count their money and find they have both lost exactly the same amount, if they played on the Planet of "Prefect Expectation", and only made pass & come bets with or without odds.

But, Player "Big Bankroll" WILL have many more comps than Player Thrifty for the same losses. Player Big Bankroll manipulated the system and took advantage of the liberal comp policy of including odds bets when calculating comp value.

That is why I consider it a "separate" bet with the game.

Neither will win, or lose more than the other, because the results will be "perfect". They both lose the same amount of money when they go to their rooms and count it. But Player "Big Bankroll" will be counting his money in the comped suite, while Player "Thrifty" is paying for a room at Motel 6.

This is mute to me, since I would never seek comps at Cosmo given their play requirements, and that my bankrolls is insufficient and I try not to play games with a HA. The only time you'd probably see me at a Cosmo crap table is with a match play coupon or NNC chips, something I do not anticipate.

All I'm saying is that for those who want the comps, who play craps anyway, and have sufficient bankroll, that being rated on odds bets is possibly well worth considering at the Cosmo.

It doesn't increase the chances you'll lose (that would suggest that an odds bet changes the likelihood of a number being rolled), but it does increase the amount of money you'll lose if you lose.

I'd like to see the the math involved on a "Crapless" craps table like they have at the Strat -- 2,3,11 and 12 are the established points when rolled on the come out. I only played that table once, and it was a wild game. An odds bet placed behind a pass line bet with 2 or 12 being the point paid 30-1 if I remember right.

Road, I think you and I are in agreement, of sorts. However, I'm very puzzled when you say you try not to play 'games with a HA'. That would mean, to me, that you'd never go into a casino.

Not sure what's left then - blackjack if you count cards? Using a light wand on the slots? Live poker?

Another way to look at the math is that the pass line bet has a HA of 1.41 and your 2x odds has a HA of 0.0. If you want a single number you can "average" the 1.41 on the $5 pass line bet with the 0.0 on the $10 odds bet to come up with .606 overall edge on your $15 bet. It sounds better to say you lowered the HA from 1.41 to .606 when in reality you are going to loose the same amount of money at the end of the long term perfect world day.

Note it is not a true average since the win/loss on the come out throw means 1/3 of the decisions will not have an odds bet.

I love casino's! I am also an "advantage player", and coupon/promo "ho". And it's not too difficult to get a comp meal either.

Primarily, I play live cash game poker. I will often take a small percentage of my win and take a chance for a $20, or $10 run through once on VP or something, just to "give action" and be in the system. Strictly recreational, to get a cocktail or two, maybe chat up a hottie, or someone not using a players club card to "remind" them they forgot to put theirs in the machine. Since they often don't have one, I'll offer mine for luck. I'm also possibly silver mining if I'm in the slot area, and will scout for lonely chips on the floor near tables, etc. :::shrug:::

I will try to use every match play coupon I can get my greedy big paws on, and that has been a lot. In 2009, I spent a total of 55 days in Vegas over 5 trips or so, and used about 1,000 coupons. Exact numbers of coupons and casino visits are in my archived TR's.

If there is a promo or coupon with enough +EV, I'll be there. Still trying to figure out if the Terrible's 10% loss rebate ($1K or more every 24 hours on table games) would be a profitable enough play to be worthy of a trip, when coupled with other promo's and coupons.

HTH

Road trip, shlomo has it right that the odds and the flat bet are "the same bet." In fact, you can't win the odds without winning the flat bet, and when you lose the flat bet, you also lose "the odds" even though the odds have "no house advantage."

So I have to disagree with you when you wrote: "I just maintain that since they guy on my left (Player "Thrifty") is betting $5 x 1,000 line bets, and Player "Big Bankroll" is betting $5 x 1,000 line bets plus taking full free odds, that at the end of those 1,000 hands, they will both count their money and find they have both lost exactly the same amount, if they played on the Planet of "Prefect Expectation", and only made pass & come bets with or without odds."

Actually, in the scenario you laid out here, if the table is hot Mr Big Bankroll will win much more than Player Thrifty because, in part, Mr Big Bankroll not only has MORE money in play, but also his "odds" is paid at a higher payoff rate than the passline bet which is always 1-for-1. Remember, odds are always paid "at true odds" so the bet on the 4 is paid this way: passline gets one for one, odds get paid two for one.

On the other hand, if the table is cold, Mr Big Bankroll loses more than Player Thrifty because player thrifty had less money at risk.

BobOrme, Wizard of Odds has a section on crapless craps... on his site he says the odds on the 2 and 12 (when they are points) pay 6-1. as place bets, the 2 and 12 pay 11-2. by the way, if playing crapless craps and youve mastered the art of throwing with the cross sixes set you can clean up at this game. this particular set of cross sixes is designed to deliver more outside numbers. If youve ever heard of the player known as "heavy" that is his set.

WTF?

In the scenario I laid out, "The world of perfect expectation", the results are "perfect", there is no hot or cold, the odds are true and the results are true and exactly as expected in this hypothetical world.

So along the way, Mr. Big Bankroll does collect more, and loses more, according to the odds. The 4 is made once, and loses twice in the world of perfect expectation. The 5 is made twice and loses three times, etc etc etc, and in the end of out perfect hypothetical series of hands, the odds portion of my Big Bankroll have evened out, and on the odds portion he breaks exactly even.

Mr BB & Mr Thrifty, in the end, after prefect distribution of all possible results in the series, will have exactly the same amount of money.

In the scenario I laid out, there is no "if the table is hot or cold", because at the end of their session, every expected result has been "made" according to the exact odds.

I did make an error and should have used 1980 rolls, for the "perfect" distribution instead of 1,000, but I don't expect someone to come along and twist the intent of my words into something that I did not intend to say and certainly did not mean to say.

It is obvious what I mean, and I stand by what I said.

You're welcome to disagree with anything I say, or anyone else says. But to make changes to the specific scenario carefully outlined to suit your own thinking and prove your "point" is just wrong. Because when you do change the intended scenario, you have left the "Planet of Perfect Expectation" and traveled to Mars.

Maybe you just do not understand how things happen on the Planet of Perfect Expectation. At the craps table, at the "end" of 1980 rolls, the results are perfect distribution of all the numbers, and all the odds. The "results" can be predicted for a "set" of 1980 rolls and be accurate, because every result will be exactly what the true odds indicate they should be. It is not possible to change anything on the planet.

Yes, there will be hot or cold streaks. But no one can leave the table until a full cycle is complete. And after the full cycle, every result will be exactly perfect.

You are in a totally different world than I am.

Road, don't waste your time.