Easy to Remember; Easy to Forget

I don't have a horse in this race, but polls have Clinton defeating Trump by an average of 6.3 points and Bernie defeating Trump by an average of 10 percent.

By contrast, polls have Kasich defeating Clinton by 7 points and Rubio defeating Clinton by 4 points. Jeb, Carson and Cruz would be within play.

Polling data will change, of course, as the cycle continues and candidates fade into the background.

Quote

Originally posted by: friedmush
I don't have a horse in this race, but polls have Clinton defeating Trump by an average of 6.3 points and Bernie defeating Trump by an average of 10 percent.

By contrast, polls have Kasich defeating Clinton by 7 points and Rubio defeating Clinton by 4 points. Jeb, Carson and Cruz would be within play.

Polling data will change, of course, as the cycle continues and candidates fade into the background.


Those national polls are useless because we don't have a national election. We, in effect, have 51 different elections as the person who wins the popular vote can easily lose the election. In the fall, if either candidate can win three out of four of the following states- Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina, they will almost certainly win the Presidency.

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Originally posted by: wispitfire
Maybe you were trying to make it a Las Vegas thread? Got a buck says it will turn into the same tired shit.


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Originally posted by: billryan
Quote

Originally posted by: friedmush
I don't have a horse in this race, but polls have Clinton defeating Trump by an average of 6.3 points and Bernie defeating Trump by an average of 10 percent.

By contrast, polls have Kasich defeating Clinton by 7 points and Rubio defeating Clinton by 4 points. Jeb, Carson and Cruz would be within play.

Polling data will change, of course, as the cycle continues and candidates fade into the background.


Those national polls are useless because we don't have a national election. We, in effect, have 51 different elections as the person who wins the popular vote can easily lose the election. In the fall, if either candidate can win three out of four of the following states- Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina, they will almost certainly win the Presidency.


I don't disagree at all. I would just toss in a few more states that could go either way, such as Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada.

Playing this out state by state, Clinton leads Trump, 240-132, with 166 electoral votes up for grabs. Sanders leads Trump, 256-181 with 101 electoral votes up for grab.

Kasich, Jeb and Rubio each have small, too-close-to-call leads over Clinton in electoral vote projections based on polling.

These numbers are fluid as candidates can win voters in swing states.
Quote

Originally posted by: friedmush
Playing this out state by state, Clinton leads Trump, 240-132, with 166 electoral votes up for grabs. Sanders leads Trump, 256-181 with 101 electoral votes up for grab.

Kasich, Jeb and Rubio each have small, too-close-to-call leads over Clinton in electoral vote projections based on polling.

These numbers are fluid as candidates can win voters in swing states.
It's all going to be about turnout on election night. I've got a feeling it's going to be a lot more than our traditional 60%.

Quote

Originally posted by: friedmush
Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Quote

Originally posted by: friedmush
I don't have a horse in this race, but polls have Clinton defeating Trump by an average of 6.3 points and Bernie defeating Trump by an average of 10 percent.

By contrast, polls have Kasich defeating Clinton by 7 points and Rubio defeating Clinton by 4 points. Jeb, Carson and Cruz would be within play.

Polling data will change, of course, as the cycle continues and candidates fade into the background.


Those national polls are useless because we don't have a national election. We, in effect, have 51 different elections as the person who wins the popular vote can easily lose the election. In the fall, if either candidate can win three out of four of the following states- Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina, they will almost certainly win the Presidency.


I don't disagree at all. I would just toss in a few more states that could go either way, such as Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada.


I dont see any path to victory for a Republican without taking three of the four that I mentioned. Give the Democrat three of them plus their usual strongholds and its an electoral route, no matter what the overall popular vote is.
This is a fun site if you are a mad political scientist
https://www.270towin.com/
Quote

Originally posted by: DonDiego
During MSNBC's town hall with Hillary Clinton on Monday [14 March 2016], [Hillary] Clinton discussed foreign policy in Libya.
She said that Libya isn't perfect, but is making progress. She added, "Libya was a different kind of calculation, and we didn't lose a single person."

Hmmmm, . . .

RIP

__J. Christopher Stevens, US Ambassador to Libya

__Sean Smith, U.S. Foreign Service Information Management Officer

__Glen Doherty, State Department Contractor

__Tyrone S. Woods, State Department Contractor

Forget, . . . . . . . forget, . . . . . . . . . . . forget, . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Remember, . . . . . . . remember, . . . . . . . . . . . remember, . . . . . . . . . . . . . .



Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
This is a fun site if you are a mad political scientist
https://www.270towin.com/


I frequent that web site a lot.

And of course there is no denying the brilliance of Nate Silver who correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states in the 2012 Presidential election so FiveThirtyEight.com is another can't miss.

Reading the musing on political threads and then heading to one of those two sites of a reality check is quite amusing.
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