Every Time I've Seen Gas Go To A New Low......

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Originally posted by: DonDiego
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: hoops2
Possible oil refinery strike is driving the price back up again

I don't get this. The outcome of a refinery strike would be to use less oil...so why would it drive up crude oil prices rather than drive them down?
The strikers are currently striking at refinery facilities that represent 10% of the US refinery capacity.

i. If this strike were to result in a 10% decrease in production of, say, gasoline without a comparable decrease in the demand for gasoline the price of gasoline in the United States might rise.

ii. If the strikers' demands were met, the costs of refining might readjusted upward to cover the new higher-wage costs.

n.b. DonDiego does not share the opinion that gasoline prices are likely to rise, under the present conditions.
i. It is likely the remaining 90% of refining capacity could pick up the slack.
ii. Given the current lower price of oil, and hence lower profitability of oil companies, the strikers demands are unlikely to be met.

I don't think DonDiego answered my question....Why would a refinery strike drive up crude oil prices?
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
I don't think DonDiego answered my question....Why would a refinery strike drive up crude oil prices?
alanleroy is correct. DonDiego answered a question which alanleroy hadn't asked.

NEVER MIND.
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Originally posted by: snidely333
I'm planning to accumulate some bullish oil investments. Oil can only go down so far. It might go down further short term but it's bound to go back up once we start shutting down wells and refineries that are no longer profitable. Then when we aren't producing, the Saudis raise their prices and bend us over and do us without the proverbial vasoline.


I agree

A refinery strike would lower crude prices minimally on WTI, and have no impact on Brent.


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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: DonDiego
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: hoops2
Possible oil refinery strike is driving the price back up again

I don't get this. The outcome of a refinery strike would be to use less oil...so why would it drive up crude oil prices rather than drive them down?
The strikers are currently striking at refinery facilities that represent 10% of the US refinery capacity.

i. If this strike were to result in a 10% decrease in production of, say, gasoline without a comparable decrease in the demand for gasoline the price of gasoline in the United States might rise.

ii. If the strikers' demands were met, the costs of refining might readjusted upward to cover the new higher-wage costs.

n.b. DonDiego does not share the opinion that gasoline prices are likely to rise, under the present conditions.
i. It is likely the remaining 90% of refining capacity could pick up the slack.
ii. Given the current lower price of oil, and hence lower profitability of oil companies, the strikers demands are unlikely to be met.

I don't think DonDiego answered my question....Why would a refinery strike drive up crude oil prices?



There are 10 refineries on strike and it could stretch to 63, which would have a serious impact on refining capacity.

The thinking is if refining capacity is reduced, then oil production will go down and create a reduction in inventory thereby raising prices
I don't see the strike doing much to oil prices, and I certainly don't expect it to cause a shortage of crude...........if anything I expect just the opposite. Crude production shut downs take some time, and unless this strike goes for a long time, there will be little crude production impact. On the other hand, there will be less crude consumed during the strike, putting downward pressure on crude pricing.

Boiler disagrees with DonDiego that a 10% decrease in gasoline production would have little impact on gasoline prices. I've spent 33 years selling petrochemicals, and a 10% swing in production on an already "snug" market will push prices up substantially. Certain geographies will be hit much harder than others, depending on proximity to striking refineries.


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Originally posted by: hoops2
There are 10 refineries on strike and it could stretch to 63, which would have a serious impact on refining capacity.

The thinking is if refining capacity is reduced, then oil production will go down and create a reduction in inventory thereby raising prices


To clarify, I don't believe that national gasoline production will drop by 10% if the strike effected refineries produce 10% of our gasoline. Management and other non-union employees will run these facilities, although they will run at less than nameplate capacity..............maybe 80 - 90% of capacity. I expect gasoline production to decline maybe 1 - 2%.
After a few days of recovery, oil is retreating and surrendering some gains. I took a short position in SM Energy this morning. After opening down, so far, it's treading water. Gas at my local gas station went up this morning, marking the first increase in over 2 months.
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Originally posted by: snidely333
I took a short position in SM Energy this morning.

Snidely didn't you just say yesterday you were looking to make some bullish oil investments? Sounds like you're shooting craps. Are you a day trader now?
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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: snidely333
I took a short position in SM Energy this morning.

Snidely didn't you just say yesterday you were looking to make some bullish oil investments? Sounds like you're shooting craps. Are you a day trader now?


My broker has declared me a pattern day trader. This is a forum full of gamblers, right? I'd rather rely on my smarts than the fickle roll of a die to decide my fate.

SM went up a lot yesterday in oil's upward spike. I figured there are a lot of people that were waiting for that spike to get out of some losing positions.

If there is a lot of crude and no place to refine it... Price of crude goes down. Price of gas goes up.
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