Every once in a while here in the Vegas Free-for-All Forum someone asks if one can place a wager on some pending world current event in Las Vegas, . . . like a war or a natural disaster.
Well, one can't, . . . at least not in Las Vegas. Las Vegas gaming regulations limit sports book wagers to sports. Sometimes, a sports book spokesperson will be interviewed on TV or the newspapers and give the "odds" on the Academy Awards or something, but the sports book doesn't really offer such wagers; it's just for fun, . . . and publicity.
However, one can place such wagers online, . . . 'cept in the United States, since the crackdown on internet gambling last year doesn't permit US financial institutions to participate in funding such wagers.
Intrade allows folks to bet against each other buy purchasing futures on such events. One can purchase/sell a future if one thinks something will/won't happen at a price between 10-cents up to $10. Since someone has to sell and someone has to buy each future the price is determined by simple marketplace bidding. This price, between .10 and 10.0 provides a prediction of the likelihood of the event happening. A $.10-price suggests it won't happen; a $10-price suggests 100% likelihood.
Since real folks are "gambling" real money, it turns out that the predictions are sometimes pretty accurate. Apparently in the 2004 Presidential Election Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of each State, a result better than any poll.
Here's some current "price-predictions":
__21.0% likely - USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012
__89.3% likely - Magnitude 7.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
__60.0% likely - The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
__13.0% likely - NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014
Just for fun !
Well, one can't, . . . at least not in Las Vegas. Las Vegas gaming regulations limit sports book wagers to sports. Sometimes, a sports book spokesperson will be interviewed on TV or the newspapers and give the "odds" on the Academy Awards or something, but the sports book doesn't really offer such wagers; it's just for fun, . . . and publicity.
However, one can place such wagers online, . . . 'cept in the United States, since the crackdown on internet gambling last year doesn't permit US financial institutions to participate in funding such wagers.
Intrade allows folks to bet against each other buy purchasing futures on such events. One can purchase/sell a future if one thinks something will/won't happen at a price between 10-cents up to $10. Since someone has to sell and someone has to buy each future the price is determined by simple marketplace bidding. This price, between .10 and 10.0 provides a prediction of the likelihood of the event happening. A $.10-price suggests it won't happen; a $10-price suggests 100% likelihood.
Since real folks are "gambling" real money, it turns out that the predictions are sometimes pretty accurate. Apparently in the 2004 Presidential Election Intrade correctly predicted the outcome of each State, a result better than any poll.
Here's some current "price-predictions":
__21.0% likely - USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012
__89.3% likely - Magnitude 7.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
__60.0% likely - The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
__13.0% likely - NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014
Just for fun !
