GDP Falls by 2.9% in Q1 14

It may be your definition, but not necessarily THE definition--the National Bureau of Economic Research seems to differ:



The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions
The Business Cycle Dating Committee's general procedure for determining the dates of business cycles

Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009. The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.

Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?

A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well. Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in activity." Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates. The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in the recessions of 2001 and 2007-2009.

Two consecutive quarters of Real GDP decline is the public's generally accepted definition. The NBER is a private non-profit organization of economists who make the technical call based on additional criteria, but for all practical purposes, 6 months of declining GDP is going to have us in recession territory in anyone's book.

Another dead thread back. It's the zombie apocalypse, I tell you.

Well this one has been pretty much updated quarterly since June of 14 so it's not all dead...just mostly dead.

Since it's mostly dead, I really would like a MLT.

People keep changing definitions - look at Webster's definition of marriage in 2000 versus today.

Does that make it right?

Another month another upward 2'nd quarter GDP revision...Now at 3.9%

At least some continue to question our GDP measurements.

"And my best bet is that the economy has changed a little bit in some manner. Not that growth slams to a halt every first quarter then we have boom times in the spring. Rather, that there’s some seasonal change, a new one, going on that we’re not properly adjusting for. Quite what it is I’m unable to tell you: and Census and Commerce will have pointy heads sucking the end of their pencils trying to work it out. As soon as they know they’ll tell us."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/09/26/us-q2-gdp-growth-of-3-9-shows-that-were-measuring-it-wrong/

If only Mr. Worstall had been reading this thread, he would have known that the US Bureau of Economic Analysis invested heavily in a review of seasonality and found major issues with 3rd quarter defense spending calculations and none for 1st and 2nd seasonality. Of course he may still be right...perhaps the new seasonal change he seeks is really Global Climate Change...or even Government Spending on Global Climate Change or maybe just Bad Weather if you're not GCC inclined.. Just a thought.

Another thought...how can you trust an economist named 'Worstall'. Is this a dismal science or what?

Mmm..when the muttons sliced just right..

Inconceivable!

"And my best bet is that the economy has changed a little bit in some manner. Not that growth slams to a halt every first quarter then we have boom times in the spring. Rather, that there’s some seasonal change, a new one, going on that we’re not properly adjusting for. Quite what it is I’m unable to tell you: and Census and Commerce will have pointy heads sucking the end of their pencils trying to work it out. As soon as they know they’ll tell us."

Something is happening. I don't know what it is. Things are changing and we're not adjusting it right. They will tell us about it later.