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Half-a-Billion-DOLLARS ! ! !

pearlguy
pearlguy
Mar 28, 2012
3:10pm
Block User
Just for the record ... your odds of winning are:

1 in 1,497,000,900

That's BILLION folks !!! (almost 1 in 1.5 BILLION )

alanleroy
alanleroy
Mar 28, 2012
10:08pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: pearlguy
Just for the record ... your odds of winning are:

1 in 1,497,000,900

That's BILLION folks !!! (almost 1 in 1.5 BILLION )


I don't see how that can possibly be true...since I can buy ALL of the numbers for a mere $175,711,536, my odds of winning would be 1 in 175,711,536. You're still 500 times more likely to be struck by lightening, but it's not 1 in 1.5 BILLION, my friend. Please show your math.
Don
Don
Mar 28, 2012
11:08pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
To pick all the numbers for MegaMillions would cost a cool $175,711,536. This is now a +EV opportunity, so I encougage everyone to invest your life savings in tickets.
DonDiego cautions alanleroy that his conclusion that this play has positive expected value may not include a consideration of likely multiple winners and reduction of the prize by taxation.

Quote
Originally posted by: kiddo1125
never bought these type tickets before.
How many numbers do you pick/choose?
Is there like a power-ball thingee?
Yes, Mega Millions is a Powerball-like thingee.
One chooses 5 numbers between 1 and 56 and one Mega-Ball number between 1 and 46.

HEY! It's NOT PowerBall; it's Mega Millions. The current PowerBall jackpot is only an estimated $60-million; one is likely to be very disappointed if one wins the PowerBall lottery instead of the Mega Millions.



alanleroy
alanleroy
Mar 28, 2012
11:37pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
To pick all the numbers for MegaMillions would cost a cool $175,711,536. This is now a +EV opportunity, so I encougage everyone to invest your life savings in tickets.
DonDiego cautions alanleroy that his conclusion that this play has positive expected value may not include a consideration of likely multiple winners and reduction of the prize by taxation.

Assuming a single winner, if one bought all of the 175,711,536 combinations, that $175,711,536 investment would be fully deductible from the $359,400,000 payout + there is no State tax on MegaMillions in California. At the 35% top tax rate, you would pay $64,290.962.4 in federal income taxes. So, $359,400,000 less your $175,711,536 investment less $64,290.962.4 = a tidy profit of $119,397,501.6.

Now, should there be two winners in Friday's drawing, the expected profit from purchasing all of the tickets declines to a scant $2,592,501.6. Three or more winners the profit turns negative....way negative.

So, what are the odds that there will be 2 or more winners? Is this a 'likely' event as DonDiego suggests?

I say you really just need to ask yourself one question...

"Do I feel Lucky"
"Well do ya?....Don".

Now to expand on this idea..if indeed it is expected to be profitable purchasing all of the tickets, it would also be +EV to purchase one ticket or 100 or 10,000. Just as a single hand at VP is + EV when a progressive jackpot reaches a certain level.


rdwoodpecker
rdwoodpecker
Mar 28, 2012
11:38pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: chefantwon
Quote
Originally posted by: rdwoodpecker
Quote
Originally posted by: mejp1957
I think 5 numbers was $ 250,000.

I wonder with the amount of numbers to chose from (52 and 48), how many different combinations of numbers can that produce? Is it less than 500 million.

Of course it would a while to fill out all the pick your number forms.

Or better yet, purchase 400 million quick picks and hope you turn a profit of more then two dollars




I believe their are 176 million combinations. After the government gets done "swiping" their share you will end up with something like $240 million IF and I mean IF you would hold the only winning combination!




Thanks, heck I might win more than I even anticipated! Wanna go 1/2 on tickets?
I think the tally is about $315 mil after US, gets his "fair share".


rdwoodpecker
rdwoodpecker
Mar 28, 2012
11:41pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
To pick all the numbers for MegaMillions would cost a cool $175,711,536. This is now a +EV opportunity, so I encougage everyone to invest your life savings in tickets.
DonDiego cautions alanleroy that his conclusion that this play has positive expected value may not include a consideration of likely multiple winners and reduction of the prize by taxation.

Assuming a single winner, if one bought all of the 175,711,536 combinations, that $175,711,536 investment would be fully deductible from the $359,400,000 payout + there is no State tax on MegaMillions in California. At the 35% top tax rate, you would pay $64,290.962.4 in federal income taxes. So, $359,400,000 less your $175,711,536 investment less $64,290.962.4 = a tidy profit of $119,397,501.6.

Now, should there be two winners in Friday's drawing, the expected profit from purchasing all of the tickets declines to a scant $2,592,501.6. Three or more winners the profit turns negative....way negative.

So, what are the odds that there will be 2 or more winners? Is this a 'likely' event as DonDiego suggests?

I say you really just need to ask yourself one question...

"Do I feel Lucky"
"Well do ya?....Don".


Seems years ago when the Powerball was first started or another similar lottery in Florida. A group or (mafia) purchased all the combinations, they did hold the only winning ticket. They made a nice profit but nothing that would warrant the risk.
Anybody else remember this?
alanleroy
alanleroy
Mar 28, 2012
11:50pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: rdwoodpecker
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
To pick all the numbers for MegaMillions would cost a cool $175,711,536. This is now a +EV opportunity, so I encougage everyone to invest your life savings in tickets.
DonDiego cautions alanleroy that his conclusion that this play has positive expected value may not include a consideration of likely multiple winners and reduction of the prize by taxation.

Assuming a single winner, if one bought all of the 175,711,536 combinations, that $175,711,536 investment would be fully deductible from the $359,400,000 payout + there is no State tax on MegaMillions in California. At the 35% top tax rate, you would pay $64,290.962.4 in federal income taxes. So, $359,400,000 less your $175,711,536 investment less $64,290.962.4 = a tidy profit of $119,397,501.6.

Now, should there be two winners in Friday's drawing, the expected profit from purchasing all of the tickets declines to a scant $2,592,501.6. Three or more winners the profit turns negative....way negative.

So, what are the odds that there will be 2 or more winners? Is this a 'likely' event as DonDiego suggests?

I say you really just need to ask yourself one question...

"Do I feel Lucky"
"Well do ya?....Don".


Seems years ago when the Powerball was first started or another similar lottery in Florida. A group or (mafia) purchased all the combinations, they did hold the only winning ticket. They made a nice profit but nothing that would warrant the risk.
Anybody else remember this?

Yes indeed. There have been gambling syndicates that attempted to purchase all the tickets of a lottery. Below is a Virginia example. That was in a lottery with a lower number of combinations. It would be very difficult to do this with Mega...unless you had a huge organization purchasing tickets around the clock.

https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html

pearlguy
pearlguy
Mar 29, 2012
5:56am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: pearlguy
Just for the record ... your odds of winning are:

1 in 1,497,000,900

That's BILLION folks !!! (almost 1 in 1.5 BILLION )


I don't see how that can possibly be true...since I can buy ALL of the numbers for a mere $175,711,536, my odds of winning would be 1 in 175,711,536. You're still 500 times more likely to be struck by lightening, but it's not 1 in 1.5 BILLION, my friend. Please show your math.


To calculate the combination of numbers is quite simple really

52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 (five #'s) X 48 (# of mega ball #'s) = 1,407,000, 900

That is how you calculate ALL the combinations.

And YES there could be multiple winners...wouldn't that suck.

Not sure how you can get ALL the numbers for a "mere" $175, 711,536.

In fact, if that was possible, don't you think there would lineups of corporations and billionaires buying up all the combinations.

Oops...just read DD's post. If there are in fact 56 numbers (not 52) then the odds are even worse.

56 x 55 x 54 x 53 x 52 X 48 = 2,200,214,016
dig_dougpt
dig_dougpt
Mar 29, 2012
6:02am
Block User
Now at 540,000,000
pjstroh
pjstroh
Mar 29, 2012
6:08am
Block User
If you buy 100 tickets your chances of winning are greatly increased. You go from the probability of being struck by lightning all the way up to the probablity of being butt-raped by a Gorilla in the Congo.
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