Happy Million Dollar Day.

That's a tough one. If only there were a mechanism that would allow someone to sell a stock as it loses value.
Real life example. I own enough ATT that I make $50,000 a year in dividends.
I am currently pulling just $10,000 from it, as it is one of a handful of such dividend stocks I own as a result of a long term investment strategy.
Let's say ATT is currently at $40. Does it matter to me if it goes up 20% or down 20%? I'm actually better off with it going down 20% because that just means my reinvesting buys me more of the cheaper shares.
I no longer have to worry about short term fluctuations because all I care about is their dividends, which through forty plus years of stock market flurries and three or more recessions have never once decreased. The stock itself is up nicely, not counting dividends.
In 2000, I owned GM. By 2005, it was obvious it was in a death spiral and I sold it at a small loss. Luckily, it was one of about two dozen stocks I owned so the loss was made up elsewhere. In 2008, thanks to a little thing called stop loss, my losses across the board were much smaller than the markets. Being able to buy companies like Ford and Sunrise in 2009 for less than a cup of coffee more than made up for the losses and my portfolio today is triple what it was in 2007.
Or I could have it in bonds and have lost spending power due to inflation. No Bragg, just fact.
Put all your money in one stock, price fluctuations affect you. Have a nice blend of dividend stocks and chances are one will go up just as another goes down. You aren't touching principal, only dividends.
Is it what a banker will recommend? Of course not. He wants you to put your million into his bank so it can play with your money.
There is always risk involved. Under boils plan, the risk is you live more than twenty years and time and inflation leaves you broke.
Fantastic plan.
Just curious how boils reconciles a person investing in risk free zero interest with the simple fact that withdrawing four percent a year, coupled with three percent inflation effectively means that person is out of money in less than twenty years.
With the situation that Billy outlines, it's too soon to safely retire. Billy, how many companies that have lost lost half of their capitalized value continue to pay the high dividend that you outline? The answer is, virtually none.

I'm not attempting to rain on anyone's parade, but instead attempting to point out how much it costs to retire safely. In Billy's offered scenario, working 4 more years can make a major difference..........growing one's nest egg and increasing annual Social Security benefits. Also, there is a huge difference in owning the stock/bonds, and owning a 401K or standard IRA.




Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Just curious how boils reconciles a person investing in risk free zero interest with the simple fact that withdrawing four percent a year, coupled with three percent inflation effectively means that person is out of money in less than twenty years.



With the situation that Billy outlines, it's too soon to safely retire. Billy, how many companies that have lost lost half of their capitalized value continue to pay the high dividend that you outline? The answer is, virtually none.

I'm not attempting to rain on anyone's parade, but instead pointing out how much it costs to retire safely. In Billy's offered scenario, working 4 more years can make a major difference..........growing one's nest egg and increasing annual Social Security benefits. Also, there is a huge difference in owning the stock/bonds, and owning stock and bonds in a 401K or standard IRA.




Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Just curious how boils reconciles a person investing in risk free zero interest with the simple fact that withdrawing four percent a year, coupled with three percent inflation effectively means that person is out of money in less than twenty years.


Why would you continue to invest in a company that is losing half its capitalized value?
In any case, you have it wrong, again. Follow the path outlined and you can retire earlier, not later. You aren't drawing four percent off your nest egg. You are leaving it intact.
Retire with a million dollars, you'll leave it to your heirs, after living off the dividends however many years.
Follow your plan, and you are broke in twenty years and instead of leaving money to your kids, you are a burden on them.
People started saying to switch your money into safe investments in the 1950s and 60s, when banks paid decent interest. I remember when my bank paid 5 1/4 % on savings accounts. Then you could leave stocks and bank a million and live off the interest. Times have changed and what was good advice back then is terrible today. My Mother was a great example. She was so afraid of losing principal she settled for anemic CDs that didn't even match inflation.
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