Has oil finally turned the corner?

Long term, the market leaders generally outperform the rest, when you reinvest the dividends.
Shell, Exxon-Mobil.
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Originally posted by: billryan
Long term, the market leaders generally outperform the rest, when you reinvest the dividends.
Shell, Exxon-Mobil.
These are both good bets for the long run. Current prices are still depressed. They are both Integrated Oils so they aren't just dependent on the price of crude. They have refineries, and retail stations. Be careful on the Shell. They have different kinds of shares (A&B) where the A class dividend may be subject to Dutch withholding. I wouldn't be surprised if either or both cut the dividends in the short run and that negatively impacted the stock....but if you're there for 10 years, it shouldn't be a problem.



Cutting dividends generally hurts stock price, so I am leery of that happening. These companies should be sitting on boatloads of cash so I don't think that will happen. It is a possibility though. I'm putting some in trusts, but those are long term for kids aged eleven to two, and that they inherit at thirty. Short term, I cant decide.
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Originally posted by: jatki99
It's kind of looking that way, the Saudi's, Russia and others have finally seemed to throw in the towel on the "let the market determine" mantra. It sure seems the smaller producers, Nigeria, Venezuela, et. al. are 110% all in with this idea(finally, I believe). The wild card card seems to be Iran who at least acquiesced to the the freeze on production, they never said anything about holding to that, but at least they acknowledged it.

I think the shale producers were complete idiots coming out and saying any 40$ oil and they'll be churning it out. Why kick the king whos sole purpose was to put your ass out of business in the first place and caused this entire mess.

Ah well anyway, I think the bottom has been hit(then again, I usually jinx stuff when I say this, but I haven't actually bought anything recently : so maybe it's not jinxed). We'll see what happens, 70-75 oil would by the end of the year would be a great thing. Congrats to all who made a killing on the plunge: thumbs;




the Saudi oil Minister came out last Tuesday and stated that they would not cut production or oppose any drop in the price of crude down to $20 a barrel. he mentioned the shale oil drillers in US and trying basically to put them out of business.
I think this rise into the mid 30's is a bump, I just don't think it can stay here with the oversupply sitting in storage all over the world.

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Originally posted by: billryan
Cutting dividends generally hurts stock price, so I am leery of that happening. These companies should be sitting on boatloads of cash so I don't think that will happen. It is a possibility though. I'm putting some in trusts, but those are long term for kids aged eleven to two, and that they inherit at thirty. Short term, I cant decide.


I think you're correct it's a no-brainer, grand slam in a trust for a few 10-11 yr olds. Alan made some good points also IMO. Personally, I hold many different oil/oil related stocks, Conoco and BP being the largest co.'s, the rest are smaller and some pipelines. I'm thinking if any of the biggies are going to cut their divvy, it'll be BP first at bat, but I kind of suspected that going in and was already relatively priced in to it. The gulf spill settlement really ate into their cash reserves. I fear ETP might cut their divvy but ,damn, I hope not. One thing about the divvy's and the majors in oil are that they consider the dividends pretty sacrosanct and will do anything to avoid cutting them.

We'll see what happens between now and start of summer, summers are usually a drawdown of stockpiles, if there's not a very large drawdown,,hellooo 20's again.
Reminds me of the time I bought BP three days before the big oil spill... Bob
I'm somewhat surprised oil is still rising. A few of the penny's I own (unfortunately not at the super cheap lows of last week) have had monstrous returns. LINE was .42 three days ago, 1.80ish right now. BBEP was .50ish last week, 1.20 today. I came really close to adding to my LINE position but instead put it into another penny oil I own which has done well but nutin' like LINE's 380%. So many coulda, shoulda, woulda's out there.
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