A Health Care System I Won't Miss

__pjstroh wrote: "The math only fails to work if all the penalty payers break their arm at the same time. Lets cross our fingers and hope that doesn't happen." [Note use of the word "all"; pjstroh made up the 100% thing.]

__DonDiego made no statement about where the money to pay for the uninsured comes from. DonDiego suspects that the $95 penalty-tax just goes to the Government; after all it is a tax.

__pjstroh wrote: " . . . all the nanny state costs of paying for the uninsured and the resulting increases in everyone's health insurance premiums disappear with the mandate." [pjstroh says the Government is no longer responsible for paying for care of the uninsured - NOT DonDiego.]

OK, . . . so if the nanny state Government isn't paying, who is? DonDiego doesn't see how the insurance companies will pay; they are not responsible for an uninsured person.
DonDiego asks: "Who pays?"

__pjstroh writes: "That outrageous scenario only occurs if 100% of the uninsured are injured in the same year."
DonDiego doesn't comprehend this statement.
__pjstroh writes: "Effectively the uninsured penalty is insurance for emergency care."
If only a small portion of the uninsured require emergency care, the $95 contributions aren't gonna go very far; if 100% of the uninsured require medical care, even for just one broken arm each, the system goes bust altogether.
DonDiego doesn't understand these statements.

But what about non-emergency care? What if an uninsured shows up with cancer? Who pays? Where does the money come from?
If the answer is: "Once he's diagnosed he can get insurance coverage immediately", the system goes bust pretty soon.

DonDiego does understand insurance, . . . and actuarial tables, . . . and cost vs benefit analyses, . . . and statistics, . . . and how the insurance premiums of those who stay healthy eventually pay for the care for those who need it. And that's OK, 'cause the healthy people are happy they're healthy, and the sick get care. And everybody entered into the health care insurance contract voluntarily.
For this to work the insurance company has to have very accurate statistical data on the population it insures, so that it can calculate the probability of those it insures requiring all sorts of medical care which, in turn, require payments to the care providers.
But when pre-existing conditions have to be covered all the statistical analyses based on the actuarial tables goes out the window. And somebody's gonna pay, . . . and DonDiego knows who!

pjstroh writes: "So did Don Diego make up the 100% thingy?"
No. pjstroh employed the adjective "all"; all=100%.

pjstroh writes: "Or is he [DonDiego] just confused how insurance works?"
No. [See above.]
Does pjstroh actually believe that if insurance companies have to cover pre-existing conditions the premiums will not have to go up substantially? Or the nanny state is gonna have to step in? Of course the nanny state has already stepped in by subsidizing the insurance premiums based upon the income of the insured.

In the end the Government will be the ultimate source of any money required; if the insurance companies cannot make a profit - whether through premiums or eventual government subsidies - they'll leave the game. Maybe that's the plan all along, . . . just another redistribution of wealth scheme. Free cell phones or free medical care, . . . what's the difference. It all buys votes.

pjstroh writes: "more importantly, if Don Diego thinks its immoral to require people to pay for their emergency care then who should that burden fall upon?"
What poppycock! DonDiego is the one who believes everyone is responsible for their own medical expenses, whether emergency or otherwise. Whether they choose to pay for it themselves or voluntarily enter into an insurance contract.
The folks who pay the $95 penalty-tax are not paying for their own medical care; $95 does not go far in an emergency room or a doctor's office. The responsibility is theirs, but the money will come from the taxpayers just as it always has.

I certainly hope that your are correct on your thoughts of my premiums not going up that much! I will be delighted. Wife works at the local hospital, they will let spouses be added as an out of pocket expense to her. My premium runs around $450 per month. I have no problem with this rate. However when they all sat in on the Blue Cross information meeting about what is was going to mean to employee coverage under the "affordable health care act" these are the numbers they are stating.
I am also a board member on our "elderly care home". We have our employee insurance through a different provider and they have told us the same numbers to expect for our employees.
So, I hope they in the industry are all wet and you are correct. WE will not know for sure of course until we see the full implement of the bill.

Don Diego, you keep making my point for me.

Your words:
"DonDiego suspects that the $95 penalty-tax just goes to the Government; after all it is a tax. "

BINGO! Good job.

"In the end the Government will be the ultimate source of any money required"

DOUBLE BINGO. You got that right too. So the only question remaining is why does Don Diego think the Federal Government that receives the penalties is different from the Federal Government paying for the emergency care? Is Don Diego referencing two different Federal goverments?

Oh, wait. Don Diego explains:
"The folks who pay the $95 penalty-tax are not paying for their own medical care; $95 does not go far in an emergency room or a doctor's office."

OOPS...no BINGO here. Which brings me back to my point about qustioning Don Diego's understanding of insurance. The collective $95 from all uninsured care pays for the subset of those who require emergncy care. Don Diego's car insurance, homeowners insurance work the same way. Thats sorta the whole point behind any insurance. Thats sorta why they invented the concept of insurance in the first place.

EMPLOYERS SLASHING COVERAGE - UVA dumps spouses - The University of Virginia announced Wednesday it will stop offering health insurance to some employees’ spouses citing rising costs under ObamaCare. According to a press release on the university’s website, “Provisions of the federal Affordable Care Act are projected to add $7.3 million to the cost of the University health plan in 2014 alone.” This follows news that UPS would be dumping an estimated 15,000 from the company’s plan. Chief National Correspondent Jim Angle follows the story today.

[A new study from consultants Towers Watson says 40 percent of businesses surveyed plan to change their health plans next year in light of the law.]

Nevada’s AFL-CIO passed a resolution Wednesday saying ObamaCare would, “lead to the destruction of the 40 hour work week, higher taxes and force union members onto more costly plans

The Obama administration on Wednesday broadened an exemption for American Indians from the new health care law's requirement that virtually every U.S. resident has health insurance starting next year. -

Welcome back to the thread, hoops2. I see you've given up trying to support your bullshit from yesterday.

I see you are still not taking your meds

Nothing could settle a stomach that takes in all the bullshit you poop out here.

DonDiego's auto insurer and home insurer charge DonDiego an amount which they calculate based on massive data bases of automobile accidents and housing damage and related variables like DonDiego's age, marital status, occupation, liquor preference, automobile make & model, and garage/house location and weather and prior driving records and prior claims records, etc., etc., etc..
DonDiego is pleased to learn that, unlike his auto/home insurers, the Obamacare authors require that everyone everywhere will pay the same penalty-tax; he'd've thought the likelihood of requiring emergency medical treatment would vary, fr'instance, geographically at least. [Emercency Room Visits per capita are almost 3-times as frequent in the District of Columbia as they are in Hawaii.] But, . . . hey, . . . what does DonDiego know.

So now all DonDiego would like to see is the math which pjstroh referred to in an earlier post. He like to see the projection that the $95 penalty-tax will, in fact, cover the emergency room costs of the $95 penalty-tax uninsured. [Earlier pjstroh stated there would be no additional cost imposed upon the program unless "all" uninsured had to be treated for a broken arm in one year; DonDiego supposes the cash resource generated by the $95 penalty-tax would be exhausted well before the last broken arm is set. So where's the math?]

And after that exercise DonDiego would really like to see the math as to how enrolling folks with pre-existing conditions, . . . especially folks who choose to be uninsured until such a condition develops and figure then they can jump into the system, . . . can be accomplished without raising insurance premiums from the pre-Obamacare rates.

Once these answers are provided, DonDiego might have more questions.

Maybe pjstroh can turn poor old DonDiego into a proponent of Big Government yet!

Don Diego has already been pointed to the math. Alas he didn't like the source. The CBO is not credible at measuring the financial ramifications of legislation in his eyes. But they concluded the net result is deficit reducing. Don Diego then defferred us to a report that scored a fictional health care system that is not law in any part of the known universe.

Don Diego writes:
"DonDiego supposes the cash resource generated by the $95 penalty-tax would be exhausted well before the last broken arm is set. "

So its up to our gentle readers to see decide has more insight into the math of the bill. People who sat down and scored the figures...or someone who is casually "suppossing" in this forum.

In either case we will know for certain what the math is when the law is fully implemented.

Item 1 - The Penalty Tax

OK, . . . so pjstroh doesn't want to show DonDiego the insurance math. The CBO did not actually do any statistical analysis on the insurance premiums vs costs; it just took whatever figures Congress gave it.

Not to put too fine a point on it, . . . but even though pjstroh said it is so, DonDiego doesn't really believe that the $95 penalty tax is designed to cover the emergency room care expenses of the uninsured. He'd like to verify it. [Hint as to DonDiego's skepticism: the tax-penalty is not $95.]

So, since pjstroh referenced the math at least tell poor old DonDiego where he found out that the $95 penalty-tax is supposed to cover emergency medical care for the uninsured. Whether there's math there or not.


Item 2 - The Young Invincibles
pjstroh writes: "In either case we will know for certain what the math is when the law is fully implemented."

Indeed, that is so.

But some folks have already done some of the math as to how Obamacare may fare:
"If the ObamaCare health insurance exchanges are to function properly, it is crucial that a substantial number of people ages 18-34 join them. This age group that is young and relatively healthy must purchase health insurance on the exchanges in order to "cross-subsidize" people who are older and sicker. Without the young and healthy, the exchanges will enter a "death spiral" where only the older and sicker participate and price of insurance premiums will increase precipitously.

This study finds that in 2014 many single people aged 18-34 who do not have children will have a substantial financial incentive to forego insurance on the exchanges and instead pay the individual mandate penalty of $95 or one percent of income. About 3.7 million of those ages 18-34 will be at least $500 better off if they forgo insurance and pay the penalty. More than 3 million will be $1,000 better off if they go the same route. This raises the likelihood that an insufficient number of young and healthy people will participate in the exchanges, thereby leading to a death spiral.

. . . when the young and healthy drop out of the "insurance pool", [t]his leads to "adverse selection" in which insurance is only attractive to those who are generally older and sicker. If the insurance pool comprises largely people who are older and sicker, then insurance prices will rise to cover their costs. That rate increase causes even more young and healthy people drop their insurance, leaving the pools even older and sicker than before, and so on."

. . . until i.collapse or ii.Government pays for everything.

Ref: The Young Invincibles

Right now those introducing Obamacare are very worried that there will be insufficient young folks buying the insurance, because it isn't in their financial interest. Before pjstroh and DonDiego "know for certain what the math is", DonDiego expects an all encompassing Government funded advertising campaign to convince young people that Obamacare is good for them. If the campaign fails, pjstroh and DonDiego will know math alone is insufficient for success.