I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

And I am very disappointed. He appears to have lost more than the car was worth-- problem number one. And problem number two is that he appears to have violated the number on rule -- he was playing for comps, or in this case a car. And then he has to stake out the VP area to make sure another high roller doesnt get the car and put him into a bigger hole. Just a disappointing report.

You're being too kind Money - just plain "stupid" IMO - how can you believe or trust his advise when here he is chasing a car and going against previous advise he has given out....DUH!!!!!

I lost respect for him a long time ago. When he admitted that he waited when he had already won a 4 ace progressive. He wanted to wait for the meter to click to the next dollar to maximize his win. A DOLLAR!!! Pathetic, the same as chasing this car was. He fits into all of Singers descriptions perfectly. Not that I am a Singer disciple.

Sounds like he was having fun.

Not true at all. From the Bob Dancer Column that you just (mis)read: "Assuming the car could be sold for more than $40,000, this was a 1.6% promotion."

He was playing for the expected CASH expected value of the resale of the car, NOT for a comp. For us low rollers, theirs a similar play at Silverton. Points can't be converted into cash or free play, but they can be turned into Bass Pro Shops gift cards, which can be easily sold at a discount on eBay and turned into - you guessed it - cash.

And analyzing probability based on the post hoc results is just mathematically illiterate. You can lose an 11 vs. 6 double down bet ten times in a row, but that doesn't make it a foolish bet. And someone won the Megabucks the other day, but that doesn't make the bet mathematically intelligent.

Actually, Dancer wrote: "I strategized that if I played $2.5 million in coin-in at the start of the contest, perhaps everybody else would "give up." Assuming the car could be sold for more than $40,000, this was a 1.6% promotion. I was hoping it didn't take $10 million in coin-in, but even if it did, a 0.4% bonus on essentially an even game isn't a bad deal. "

He went on to say he was down $65,000, and later in the article another $15,000. That's $80K total because he did not believe "Joyce".

He felt he had to change his strategy in the middle of the quest to insure his win. Fair enough. :::shrug:::

And it's obvious his original calculation of 1.6% was variable based on how much his coin in was during the promotion in his quest to win the prize he valued at $40K.

Dancer did nothing he does not advocate. He has always considered some "comps" as profit. (comps that are easily converted to cash)

To say he is "stupid" is not fair. This is how he "makes his living", and I find no inconsistencies in his writing per se. I may not agree that his chase for the car was a "good" play, but it is his business, and he considers the math to be an appropriate risk vs reward.



As for the "low roller play" at Silverton for Bass Pro Gift Cards, I figure that play is worth 70% of the face value of the card with luck.

I will qualify my last statement:

IF you sell it online to a site that buys gift cards. I checked two, and the "best" offer was $37.50 on $50.00 card. Your mileage could vary. A sale on eBAY could bring more, or less, and there are the fees to list, sell, and perhaps collect your funds.

I'm wondering if the sales tax for the car was factored in ???


Rick

The only tax he would have to pay on the car is the 1099G unless he registers it. If he sells it prior to registration there would be no sales tax. For instance, his best course of action would be to sell it back to the dealer who supplied the vehicle or another dealer for less than the invoice. Therefore, the dealer can still sell the vehicle as a new car and make profit.

Also, keep in mind that he can write off all the 1099G's that he received during this contest because he ended up losing money overall. I'm sure Dancer takes tax implications into consideration whenever he makes a play such as this, it's what he does for a living.


-Mule

Since there's no way to predict how many other deep pocketed players might have had the same idea, how can this be an advantage play? If one more player stepped up and got a little luckier than Bob it could have been uglier. He could have lost the Car and another $50K.