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I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

KayPea
KayPea
Jan 31, 2011
6:34am
Block User
What I've gotten from this thread is that you can go into a casino and put a quarter into any slot machine and pull the handle. If you win you are a talented genius. If you loose then you are an idiot for even trying.
melbedewy
melbedewy
Jan 31, 2011
6:44am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote
Originally posted by: melbedewy
He dropped $65k in 2 days. That's the kind of "advantage" play that caused Dick Mustain (Arcimedes) to go belly up in LV and head back to the balmy climes of Minnesota to change diapers.


I'm far from being a high roller. My biggest loss is about 10% of that figure. I'm just not that much of a gambler. But, the fact is I've still had 8 consecutive winning years. And, I'm still waiting for you to put your money where your big mouth is.



Hey Dick-I'm a 25 year winner. Playing mostly FPDW and the long vanished 10/6 JOB. I could get my parakeets to be "a winner" but they're smart enough (unlike charlatans, frauds and fantasists) to pretend to be a "pro".
Here's a message from Resorts AC filmed last Wednesday just for you:

Anyone who loses $65K on a "game" is insane!
justmare
justmare
Jan 31, 2011
7:19am
Block User
Wow, what in the hell was that?!
arcimedes
arcimedes
Jan 31, 2011
9:33am
Block User
That was Mikey showing the world what a drunken loser does in their spare time.

"Stupid is as stupid does"

melbedewy
melbedewy
Jan 31, 2011
9:34am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: melbedewy
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote
Originally posted by: melbedewy
He dropped $65k in 2 days. That's the kind of "advantage" play that caused Dick Mustain (Arcimedes) to go belly up in LV and head back to the balmy climes of Minnesota to change diapers.


I'm far from being a high roller. My biggest loss is about 10% of that figure. I'm just not that much of a gambler. But, the fact is I've still had 8 consecutive winning years. And, I'm still waiting for you to put your money where your big mouth is.



Hey Dick-I'm a 25 year winner. Playing mostly FPDW and the long vanished 10/6 JOB. I could get my parakeets to be "a winner" but they're smart enough (unlike charlatans, frauds and fantasists) not to pretend to be a "pro".
Here's a message from Resorts AC filmed last Wednesday just for you:

Anyone who loses $65K on a "game" is insane!


MisterPicture
MisterPicture
Jan 31, 2011
10:31am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: forkush

Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
The fact of the matter is that when he calculated his Advantage he did not include any probability of losing. He had one number for winning at 2.5M CI and another for winning at 10M CI...
But if the coin-in required to win had only been $1,250,000, his advantage would have jumped to 3.2%. At a million, his advantage would have been 4%. If you're going to criticize Dancer for not factoring in the possibility of a huge coin-in making the game unprofitable, you should also criticize him for not factoring in a lower coin-in making it more profitable. Your real objection isn't to his math, it's to the uncertainty of this proposition.

But as usual, Bob Dancer is way ahead of you: "Although the games themselves are constant, the environment keeps changing. Casinos change slot clubs and promotions regularly. Frequently, you'll find yourself operating in an atmosphere of incomplete information."

That's from the introduction of Dancer's book "Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner," which I highly recommend. But frankly, alanleroy, I don't think that's the right book for you. I'd rather not say why I feel that way.

Dude, the level of 'uncertainty of a proposition' and 'atmosphere of incomplete information' are cute little phrases that really mean you don't know what the probability of failure is...except Dancer's gut feeling based on very limited observations...
And here is how he dealt with you refer to as his probabability of failure:
  • Dancer played a game, that at worst, had a break even expected value.
  • Dancer risked a tiny portion of his overall gambling bankroll, probably the equivalent of you playing a 25 cent single play game for 25 hours.
  • Dancer factored in close to 20 years of experience and knowledge of other players.

    And within the last year, Dancer reports that the Tropicana reneged on a promised freeplay amount, so there's always some uncertainty, isn't there? Another reason for the faint of heart to stay out of the arena.
    • alanleroy
    alanleroy
    Jan 31, 2011
    10:55am
    Block User
    Quote
    Originally posted by: forkush
  • Dancer played a game, that at worst, had a break even expected value.
  • Dancer risked a tiny portion of his overall gambling bankroll, probably the equivalent of you playing a 25 cent single play game for 25 hours.
  • Dancer factored in close to 20 years of experience and knowledge of other players.
    .

    • 1. 8/5 BP and 9/6 DDB are not break even games
    2. What is Dancer's overall gambling bankroll? How do you know?
    3. 20 Years of Experience with Coin-In Contests with 40K prizes? Exactly how many of these contests does this equal?
    vpman80
    vpman80
    Jan 31, 2011
    11:16am
    Block User
    I wonder how he would have done if he played with Singers strategy
    fedomalley
    fedomalley
    Jan 31, 2011
    12:11pm
    Block User
    Quote
    Originally posted by: melbedewy
    Quote
    Originally posted by: arcimedes
    Quote
    Originally posted by: melbedewy
    He dropped $65k in 2 days. That's the kind of "advantage" play that caused Dick Mustain (Arcimedes) to go belly up in LV and head back to the balmy climes of Minnesota to change diapers.


    I'm far from being a high roller. My biggest loss is about 10% of that figure. I'm just not that much of a gambler. But, the fact is I've still had 8 consecutive winning years. And, I'm still waiting for you to put your money where your big mouth is.



    Hey Dick-I'm a 25 year winner. Playing mostly FPDW and the long vanished 10/6 JOB. I could get my parakeets to be "a winner" but they're smart enough (unlike charlatans, frauds and fantasists) to pretend to be a "pro".
    Here's a message from Resorts AC filmed last Wednesday just for you:

    Anyone who loses $65K on a "game" is insane!


    Sorry, it took me until now to figure it out.....melbedewy is the love child of Otis the town drunk in the Andy Griffith Show and Dudley Moore in "Arthur". Your drunk rants aren't too convincing as to the merits of FPDW. Do me a favor and go over the math for me again please? Being the 25 year winner that you are, I think we all have so much to learn.

    You do sound way too much like Singer....I'm guessing a not too distant relative. Another idiot to put on ignore.

    fedomalley
    fedomalley
    Jan 31, 2011
    12:30pm
    Block User
    Quote
    Originally posted by: MoneyLA
    Dan, you and others have this belief "It should be noted that the actual results don't matter...." when discussing the merits of so-called "advantage play." Well, actual results are all that matters.

    The whole point of "advantage play" is to make you a winner. If it doent make you a winner, then something is wrong.

    I do accept Arcimedes' statement -- he says that even with advantage play you will have losing sessions. Of course you will.

    I do not oppose anyone who follows the strategy of "advantage play" and if given a choice between playing 10/6 DDB and 9/5 DDB and all things being equal I would also always choose 10/6 DDB because that is one of the elements of "advantage play."

    But no where in all of the writings of "advantage play" does it say that it is OK to LOSE money. One of the rules of advantage play is to limit losses, isn't it? Well, granted, Dancer's loss limits are probably a lot higher than what the rest of us have. And advantage play does figure in the value of comps and cashback -- BUT advantage play does not include competition for a car in which another player can outplay you, and in this point alanleroy is correct in his arguments.

    Actually, Dan, had Dancer said he had an 80-thousand dollar PROFIT and WON THE CAR he would continue to be the world's #1 VP God, but he didnt. He lost 80-thou and got a car thats maybe worth 40-thou, and it leaves followers like me wondering what the heck he was thinking???

    By the way Arc, I got lucky the other night and hit quad aces with a kicker on a 9/5 machine. The 10K win put me into the plus column on the year. I guess you can say I followed proper strategy because I held two aces and got the other two plus kicker on the draw. But it was on a 9/5 machine -- so "tsk tsk" on me for playing a 9/5 machine.

    and one more thing Arc, you wrote: "One dealt RF on the 50-play machine Dancer was playing would yield $100K and make up for everything Dancer lost and more." Really, is this what you "advantage players" figure on? The chance of a dealt royal is 1/629,740.

    Im going to tell you right now WHO has the advantage: the casino.


    Money, the question in my mind is whether or not this was a good play going in. It's a very easy game to assess in hindsight but the question on the table in my mind is that given the facts that existed BEFORE he opted to play was whether or not this was a "good" play.

    Here's the scoop....

    He was willing to run through $10M coin in that was going to cost him a theo $10,300 and a bit in loss. In exchange, he'd get a car with a $40K value. The net difference was a $30K+ plus to the good game with a theo return of $300/hr. So yes, on paper, given his bankroll and risk tolerance, it was a good deal. The reality is that he didn't have to risk $10M but rather $2.5M+.

    Whether he won or lost is inconsequential to the issue of whether or not this was a good "risk". Obviously, after the fact it's easy to determine if it was. As Arci said, if you don't want any risk, just don't play but that's not applicable to anyone who posts here. We know there is a risk and potential reward strategy...if there was no possibility of reward, only the addicted would play. I could walk past thousands of machines almost every day of my life and never play if I didn't believe that the overall return made sense. Everyone has their own reasons for playing or opting not to but this hindsight gig is BS....the facts bear in out that this was a good game for him to play. The results obviously could have been better but who would ever know that in advance?

    I'm not suggesting that this play is for everyone. In the end, there are still good plays on paper that are still too volatile for me to consider. If I had the bankroll, both physical and psychological to withstand some of these plays, it might be a different story. In the end, the play is only as good as your ability to ride it out. No upside if you run out of bankroll waiting for the theo to take hold.

    I've been reading about a lot of poker pros and they realize the concept of volatility and bankroll much better than vp players IMO. To be honest, I don't think Bob is sweating this loss one bit. He believes that in the end, he'll make it back and then some on the next similar positive play. I for one agree with him in this assessment.

    Dan
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