I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

Dan: sure, going in it was a great play. But once again, the best laid plans of mice and men...

Look, Im not against the guy making the gamble. Im just amazed he wrote about it publicly.

Heck, Ive made business decisions that I thought were genius but failed miserably. And you know what? I don't tell people about those. Because if I did, it could affect my future business.

Now, lets take Dancer, the VP guru. Why would he let the world know that this great plan flopped?

Point of strategy to all would-be gurus: "flop in private, and should the flop become public, deny it happened."

Like Ive said before: Im waiting for his follow up column. It should be out any day now.

Money, there could be all sorts of reasons for him writing about his "failed attempt" and I can think of a few:

1. Maybe in his mind, it wasn't a failure but rather a temporary setback? If this promo came up again tomorrow, I believe he'd play it again.

2. Maybe he's trying to dissade other big players from taking a run at him in similar future circumstances?

3. Maybe he's trying to buy himself playing time at other casinos by showing that he can lose money and that it may be worthwhile to have him as a customer?

4. Maybe he's trying to point out the reality that just because you have a mathematic edge doesn't mean that you'll be a winner today. Poker players and blackjack counters understand this concept well.

I'm not sure there will be a follow up to this.....what more do you want to know about what occured?

Dan

Unless he lives in a cave, it is likely he is aware of this thread.

I'm almost willing to bet there will be some sort of follow up to the column, perhaps even a mention of this thread, although I doubt if it will be "immediate".

He may choose to take some time to give this thread time to quiet down, and give any response he is considering careful and due deliberation.

IMO, of course.

My educated guess, without the benefit of analysis or observations of enough trials to declare it probable.

That depends.

I've been following this thread, listening to the different view points. I do remember reading a short autobiography of Dancer's. The one thing I was impressed with was his arriving in Vegas with a bankroll of only $6,000 and parlayed that into an impressive fortune. That's proof in the pudding, he's doing something right.

I got a better biography for you to consider... a homeless guy with a sign by the side of a freeway says he has a golden voice, gets "discovered" by a newspaper reporter who puts a video on youtube, and within a week the homeless buy has million dollar voice over and announcing contracts and a free recovery at an addiction center picked up by a network talk show....

now that was a biography. written and verified by others. there is a difference from an "autobiography" which may lack outside, third party verification.

I know some great Hollywood Ghost Writers who, for a fee of about $500, will give you an autobiography that could earn you Sainthood.

About the best thing a good teacher can do is relate their personal struggles and failures, and the lessons learned therin. (Not that this trifle was much of a "failure.")

I think that nets it out pretty well. This play may have cost him 2-3% of his bankroll. This type of swing (and higher) happens all the time in VP.

More importantly, if he did have partners in this it makes even more sense. So I am curious to know if he was playing for a team which makes sense for big money contests.

If he were playing for a team, it would also explain how/why he overstated his confidence level in the proceedings -- he was making a sale.