I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

Love the one word answers, could you explain a tad?

Chefantwon, like you I am also "totally off" according to some of the others who have commented on this thread.

Anthony, you wrote: "Assuming the basics of the promotion haven't changed and it's still positive, only bankroll considerations would dictate stopping."

do you mean that if you had the bankroll, you would continue to lose money -- more money than the car is worth -- just so you could win the car?

I would think that there would come a point where a player would say "enough, I didnt win, my session loss has been reached" ??

Is there no such point?

I'm a thinking the same way. There has to be a point where a player says,"enough is enough".

It will be interesting what AC has to say on the subject.

Dancer has stated his gaming bankroll is well in excess of $1 million. I think he may have mentioned in an column last year it was several, but I don't remember exactly. He claims he is well funded, so let us pretend he will never go broke. (Yeah, I know, but let's just pretend anyway, OK?)

During this promotion, he played somewhere between $2.5 - $3 million coin in. That is "only" 20,000 - 24,000 hands played. That may sound like a lot of VP deals, but it's not. Maybe ?>30 hours for Dancer?

His theo on $2.5 million was -$1380. His theo on $10 million was -$10,380.00 Every $1 million after that had a theo of -$12,000 for that promotion.

IF he had played longer, it is very possible that the terrible deviation he experienced playing the first $2.5 - $3 million for a loss of $80,000 would have averaged closer to actual probability.

Eventually it will, for those that know it's a long term game, and can handle the financial swing.

He only played this particular event on a short term basis. His results, or the results of anyone who starts of badly should only improve with more play, if the player has a sufficient advantage, and bankroll to withstand the monster deviation encountered.

However, with this promotion, the % of advantage did diminish as the coin in increased. The point of no return, where the "advantage" and the coin in would equalize before the game turned completely negative was, if my math is correct, about $30 million+ coin in, which would than yield a small "theo" profit. ($40K prize - $34,380 = + $5,620)

Where to stop would depend on the individual and bankroll, return, and other considerations.

Since this was a contest, the answer seems to me to be "It depends". I believe it should be less than $30+ million coin in.

If this were a "constant", where the advantage did not diminish, than it would probably be correct to never quit if the theo profit, long term, would result in a profit acceptable to the player when averaged out as an hourly wage.

:::shrug:::

Anthony?

As one who does not play very much VP I have tried to follow this one and just need to understand something:
Did the subject of this contest spend approx. $65,000 of his money to win an approx. $40,000 vehicle and did the cashback/comps or whatever on the coin through during the contest equal or exceed the $25,000 difference in the amount spent vs the value of the vehicle? If I have this wrong please just ignore.

Dancer thought he had an advantage play. Took his chance and lost some money. Even if it is +EV, it is still gambling.

Stopping during the session is a bad move. You're giving away all the money you've lost when the game from that point forward is still, to Dancer's estimation, +EV. The session has the Range Rover. Playing tomorrow without the Range Rover is a less optimal play.

Having to make this kind of decision implies you're being threatened by another player....otherwise you could just stop and win the car. What do you do if the stakes escalate...like sometimes happens between two bidders in a auction? Difference is, in a normal auction, if you don't win you don't lose any money either.

Isn't this the environment the Casinos are trying to set up...to get a couple of high rollers playing for the prize and when they've got so much money sunk into the game, it becomes a real emotional shootout....like an auction...and the coin-in escalates to the Casino's advantage.? Or are they just doing these contests to be nice and say 'thank you...have a Range Rover on us' to their loyal customers?

The bottom line is M Resort laughed all the way to the bank. The guy who "won" the car paid them over twice what it's worth. Everybody else cycled millions through highly negative games like 8-5 BP.
What's funny is that both "Bob" and I spent 2 days last month playing 8-5 BP. I played at Resorts in AC. Nice and leisurely at $1.25 a spin, I walked away with a $60 profit. Plus a free room, buffet, food comps and a bunch of free top shelf booze. I left smiling and happy.
"Bob" played $125 a spin, drank black coffee --and paid $90k for a $40k car.
If the marks ever wise up and stop buying his software, books, strategy cards, etc. I think "Bob" will be living at the Shade Tree shelter within 6 months.

Players clubs were obviously set up for the benefit of the casinos. Cashback promos, freeplay, mailers, drawings, and the rest were all invented to improve casino profitability. But year after year, some players have been able to game the system for their own benefit.

Welcome to advantage video poker, alanleroy. That was your first lesson.