I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
Sure your going to lose here and there, but the object is not to lose your a$$ in the long run. Money and session management are ways to limit ones expposure, hence ones risk.


Long run and money/session management don't go together.

Session management is about prolonging playing time while on vacation. If you bring $100 to Vegas for two days, and plan to gamble once a day, then limit yourself to $50 for the first day so you'll have another $50 for tomorrow.

The casino has a new game of "guess my number" where you bet $10 and pick a number between 1-10. The casino's number changes once per day and you're allowed 10 bets per day. if you get the right number you win $90. If you're one off of the right number you win $10. Otherwise you win nothing.

If you bet all ten numbers you're going to come out ahead on this game by winning 7x$0 + 2x$10 + 1x$90 for a total of $110 win on $100 bet yielding a net profit of $10.

Today's casino number is 9.

Using session management I'm going to bet the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. I'll have lost $50, my session limit, and go to dinner. I come back after dinner and bet 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. I win $110 and go home a happy winner.

Playing for the long run I go ahead an bet all ten numbers at once knowing that I will come out a winner eventually. Even after betting 1-7 and loosing $70 I continue. After playing the last three numbers the math come through and I head off to dinner with an extra $10 in my pocket.

The only difference in the session management and long run strategies above is the number of playing sessions. Recreational players don't put in the time required to reach long term results and instead have to use session management to prolong their recreational time.
Quote

Originally posted by: KayPea
Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
Sure your going to lose here and there, but the object is not to lose your a$$ in the long run. Money and session management are ways to limit ones expposure, hence ones risk.


Long run and money/session management don't go together.

Session management is about prolonging playing time while on vacation. If you bring $100 to Vegas for two days, and plan to gamble once a day, then limit yourself to $50 for the first day so you'll have another $50 for tomorrow.

The casino has a new game of "guess my number" where you bet $10 and pick a number between 1-10. The casino's number changes once per day and you're allowed 10 bets per day. if you get the right number you win $90. If you're one off of the right number you win $10. Otherwise you win nothing.

If you bet all ten numbers you're going to come out ahead on this game by winning 7x$0 + 2x$10 + 1x$90 for a total of $110 win on $100 bet yielding a net profit of $10.

Today's casino number is 9.

Using session management I'm going to bet the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. I'll have lost $50, my session limit, and go to dinner. I come back after dinner and bet 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. I win $110 and go home a happy winner.

Playing for the long run I go ahead an bet all ten numbers at once knowing that I will come out a winner eventually. Even after betting 1-7 and loosing $70 I continue. After playing the last three numbers the math come through and I head off to dinner with an extra $10 in my pocket.

The only difference in the session management and long run strategies above is the number of playing sessions. Recreational players don't put in the time required to reach long term results and instead have to use session management to prolong their recreational time.


And an "advantage player" will formulate a strategy where he initially bets # 1,3,5,7,9, and if he hits the daily number he quits. If he hits the neighboring number, he now knows with a relative degree of certainty what the winning number is and bets two number to hit the winner. The advantage player saves 3+ bets on each day in the long run.

The advantage player walks away with a larger profit, yet both gamblers are happy with their win. The tourist is just not "educated" to realize his expected value will increase with the use of a better strategy.





The difference Kay is that you'll be hungry and I'll be quite full.

Each number has the same exact odds of hitting them. In your example, your math is waay off. Each number has a one in 10 chance of coming up, yet you fail to account for it. Also, the number never gets removed from play, ever. So you may go 10 or more numbers in a row and never see the lucky number before you run out of cash. Sometimes you'll run out of cash and go hungry before you hit the lucky number, while others may lose their daily limit but still be able to pay for lunch.

Now if you excuse me, I'm going to get something to eat......mayhaps a bit of BBQ pork
Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
The difference Kay is that you'll be hungry and I'll be quite full.

Each number has the same exact odds of hitting them. In your example, your math is waay off. Each number has a one in 10 chance of coming up, yet you fail to account for it. Also, the number never gets removed from play, ever. So you may go 10 or more numbers in a row and never see the lucky number before you run out of cash. Sometimes you'll run out of cash and go hungry before you hit the lucky number, while others may lose their daily limit but still be able to pay for lunch.

Now if you excuse me, I'm going to get something to eat......mayhaps a bit of BBQ pork


Chef....

Your analysis is incorrect for this scenario.

Read the original message. The game is a "daily" number, always remaining the same for that day, between 1-10.

It is impossible to "lose" more than 7 decisions, unless the player is an idiot who bets a number he has previously lost on that same day.

Does that BBQ pork come with humble pie for dessert?



Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
In your example, your math is waay off.


Go back and reread how the game is played.
And I might add, the real "casino pro or hustler" would observe the game until a winner was hit, than knowing the number would enter, place one bet, win and leave.



Im sorry, but the point of this "new game" of "guess the number" eludes me? What has it got to do with video poker, dancer, or anything else that we've been discussing here?
Quote

Originally posted by: RoadTrip
And I might add, the real "casino pro or hustler" would observe the game until a winner was hit, than knowing the number would enter, place one bet, win and leave.




No, he'd place his limit of 10 bets, all for the winning number, and be trespassed.
Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Im sorry, but the point of this "new game" of "guess the number" eludes me? What has it got to do with video poker, dancer, or anything else that we've been discussing here?


It illustrates the concept of planning an advantage play and playing for the long term. Bob is criticized for doing the equivalent of playing numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and leaving with just a car rather than continuing until he guessed the number (hit the royal) and leaving with cash and a car.
Quote

Originally posted by: KayPea
Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
In your example, your math is waay off.


Go back and reread how the game is played.


I'm going to hit both you and road trips responses here.

1. A casino would never allow a contest like that, either the daily number would change or one would not get to pick a number, only a random one.

2. I'd perfer either 4 and 20 blackbirds or I'l eat crow. Humble pie sometimes contains too much salt and I have to cut down on my salt intake (high blood pressure).
Already a LVA subscriber?
To continue reading, choose an option below:
Diamond Membership
$3 per month
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Limited Member Rewards Online
Join Now
or
Platinum Membership
$50 per year
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Exclusive Member Rewards Book
Join Now