I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

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Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: snidely333
Stopping during the session is a bad move. You're giving away all the money you've lost when the game from that point forward is still, to Dancer's estimation, +EV. The session has the Range Rover. Playing tomorrow without the Range Rover is a less optimal play.

Having to make this kind of decision implies you're being threatened by another player....otherwise you could just stop and win the car. What do you do if the stakes escalate...like sometimes happens between two bidders in a auction? Difference is, in a normal auction, if you don't win you don't lose any money either.

Isn't this the environment the Casinos are trying to set up...to get a couple of high rollers playing for the prize and when they've got so much money sunk into the game, it becomes a real emotional shootout....like an auction...and the coin-in escalates to the Casino's advantage.? Or are they just doing these contests to be nice and say 'thank you...have a Range Rover on us' to their loyal customers?


I thought it was interesting how Dancer warned off his rival that he would match whatever volume of play she made for the rest of the competition. I was surprised that a player would do that to another player. Comes across a little like bullying or dick waving. But it actually is more like collusion between players--trying to avoid getting into the kind of bidding war that the casino is trying to encourage. Of course the casino still has the upper hand in such a negotiation, since the players can never really trust each other.
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
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Originally posted by: KayPea
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
In your example, your math is waay off.


Go back and reread how the game is played.


I'm going to hit both you and road trips responses here.

1. A casino would never allow a contest like that, either the daily number would change or one would not get to pick a number, only a random one.



The "game" was created for the purpose of analogy and to illustrate his point.

You came along and changed the analogy to something entirely different.

:::shrug:::

I created a simple coin flip analogy and people wanted to know more about the coin.
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Originally posted by: RoadTrip
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
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Originally posted by: KayPea
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
In your example, your math is waay off.


Go back and reread how the game is played.


I'm going to hit both you and road trips responses here.

1. A casino would never allow a contest like that, either the daily number would change or one would not get to pick a number, only a random one.



The "game" was created for the purpose of analogy and to illustrate his point.

You came along and changed the analogy to something entirely different.

:::shrug:::


Your talking about just throwing money at a problem until an objective is reached. Simply throwing money at a problem may be the way of VP people and the Federal Government, but it doesn't solve anything nor does it give anyone an advantage for anything.

Chef, heres the difference between the way you and I think about the game of VP, and the way the "advantage players" think:

WE have a short term outlook. we play given our bankroll, and our tolerance for losing, and our time at the casinos.

THEY have a long term outlook. as long as they are playing a game with a high-enough payback, plus comps, and cash back and other do-hickeys they think they will always come out ahead "in the long run."

If I were thirty years younger... and had a few million dollars more... I might also have a "long run outlook."

But these days, in between doctor visits, I tend not to buy green bananas.

I'll get some comps given upon how many times I can get to Vegas. However, I just don't have the millions needed to be an advantage player.
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
I'll get some comps given upon how many times I can get to Vegas. However, I just don't have the millions needed to be an advantage player.


The vast majority of of advantage players do not have millions either. But, obviously they know and understand math a LOT better than you or moneyla.

If it takes so long to win using AP then why have I won 8 years in a row? No, it's not luck ... I was below expectation for 6 of those 8 years. You guys really should take a course in statistics or, God forbid, quit making ridiculous statements about things you don't understand.
Sure, you can be winning Arc, but HOW MUCH are you winning? If youre ahead a couple hundred or a couple thou a year, Im not impressed.

tell me you earn 50K or more and I'll start to pay attention to what "AP" is supposed to be.

And, why should I believe your anonymous claims? Heck, you wouldnt know if I was a 16 year old or a high priced TV personality using an anonymous website name.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
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Originally posted by: chefantwon
I'll get some comps given upon how many times I can get to Vegas. However, I just don't have the millions needed to be an advantage player.


The vast majority of of advantage players do not have millions either. But, obviously they know and understand math a LOT better than you or moneyla.

If it takes so long to win using AP then why have I won 8 years in a row? No, it's not luck ... I was below expectation for 6 of those 8 years. You guys really should take a course in statistics or, God forbid, quit making ridiculous statements about things you don't understand.


Lets see about what I don't understand in your opinion. In a given timeframe just keep throwing money at the game and eventually you will win. (the slight odds that are in your favor will catch up with you) I can win more often by simply putting my money on the pass line.

VP, the only game where spending $60,000.00+ for a $40,000.00 car is a good thing.

So, if you can explain to me just where its finiancially viable to spend more than a car is worth and call it a positive expectation game? I am dealing with spending a finite amount of funds to achieve a desired result and you are talking spending an infinite amount for the same results?

Let me try again ... You guys really should take a course in statistics or, God forbid, quit making ridiculous statements about things you don't understand.

Continuing to demonstrate your ignorance doesn't change the facts. The opportunity was POSITIVE. When a person always plays with an advantage they won't win EVERY TIME. However, OVER TIME they will win more than they lose and make a profit.

Really, how hard is that to understand???????
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