I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

This contest wasn't a matter of luck to win the car, it was purely a matter of most dollars through the machines in a designated period of time. I believe by reading the article the information was available to the players how many points were being accumulated by their opponents. So Dancer had a fair amount of control over the results of the contest due to this. Plus how many players are in a casino on a daily basis playing $100+/deal through a machine for hours and hours. Walk through any high limit slot area at anytime of the day and there are usually no more than a handful of players there playing above $25/deal.

-Mule

Right...I'm just pointing out that unlike the Silverton deal mentioned by Fokush (where you get a gift card for accumulating a certain number points)...this was a competition for which there was no guarantee he would win....All of his assumptions on return were based winning the top prize. Just one other serious contestant with a bigger bankroll or even a smaller bankroll but a better run of luck could have blown up the whole plan....and there was no way to account for that. I'm not so sure this was an Advantaged Play as the basic assumptions could have been wrong. As it ended up the big winner here was M.

Technically, unless Dancer had bribed folks with inside contacts, he wasn't sure this was an advantage play. Any new player at M could have distributed multiple cards to family and had them playing in rotations. Unless somebody tipped Dancer off that the cards were interlinked, he would have no way of knowing.

I'm not sure what I think of the column -- he seems to be adhering to proper rules for profiteering, but it sure has a funny feel to it. I don't think this is a good example to be setting for vp players everywhere. This occurred in December, during holiday times? In the past, such dates usually are loaded with vp bonuses and promos around Las Vegas -- if this was the best one, geez, that is not good.

So how about it, folks, did any residents spot better opportunities than this (even if low-roller ones) during this time period?

I remember playing a bank of slots with a car as a grand prize (this was back in the day before I got wise to the math) and, in the fine print, it said that one could take a large cash sum instead of the car; maybe that was the case here.

Its funny how he and his fans justify losing those 10s of thousands of dollars, with the simple "But I was playing at a 1.6% advantage!"

Oh hell I guess that makes it all better now....

I am going to try that on lady friend one night.

"Sorry honey, I just pissed away 60 grand, chasing a stupid promotion, but hey...I was playing at a 1.6% advantage"


Only in his head did that play make sense.....

Sheeesh

--Rizzo

It would be much more accurate to say that there was no way for YOU to account for that. But for Bob Dancer, it would be much easier, wouldn't it?

The universe of high-limit Las Vegas advantage players is fairly small, and Dancer would certainly be acquainted with virtually all of them. If you'd read many of his columns, or read Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner, you'd know that weekly and monthly drawings are now a key component of advantage play, and these same high-rollers congregate around them quite often. And in his column, he explained that he had known the woman who was his main competition for years, and about her playing habits.

As usual when it comes to many players club decisions, Dancer had incomplete information. But he had a great deal of experience and information that you and I do not possess, and made the right call. And your post hoc analysis of "As it ended up the big winner here was M" is just silly, unless you now believe that playing Megabucks at the Aria is now a strong advantage play.

Next time I pay $60k for a $40k car, I'll be happy and know it was the right move.

Wasn't it $80k for that $40k car?

Actually...he stated that he lost 80K chasing that 40K car. At least that is the amount he is "going with", I would venture to "guess" that there is probably another 10K -20K in there somewhere that he's not telling us about.

If I was a betting man, which I am, I would say that there is a GOOD possibility that he would take the cash equivalent of the car in FSP. He has mentioned before that most casinos are offering that option, and that he'll usually always go with that option when its offered to him. Doesn't have to deal with the taxes on a cash payment, or the hassle of selling the car.

So this may end up being 30K (or less) in FSP, which, if his luck in this promotion continues, he will end up losing more then half of it, after playing it through once. Or he could get "lucky" and win a small royal, and make up "some" of his losses....you never know.

Its a losing deal for him, and that old gal that was giving him a run for the money, could have pissed away his whole plan. Imagine if that old woman kept on playing, and he had to keep up with her....he'd be in the -100K range, and he'd look like a real turd afterwards!

But hey....he is playing at a 1.6% advantage...that means he could lost 500K more bucks and everything is OK in the world.

If you play at an advantage....its ok to lose all of your cash....everyone knows that!

HAHA

--Rizzo

So you're saying because Dancer knows the universe of high limit advantage players there was NO risk in just assuming that he would win the contest. His estimated rate of return on high dollar in and low dollar in both assumed no possibility of NOT winning the car...That's a flawed analysis...add in just a 5% chance of someone else (like the lady he feared) winning and the whole proposition turns negative.

Oh...and as for my statement "As it ended up the big winner here was M" being "just silly"...it was merely a statement of FACT not an evaluation of the play....You must think FACTS are silly.