I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

It is like the house advantage but backwards. The casino has the advantage at craps but it doesn't mean they win every time.

Money and Chef, you guys don't believe what us "mere mortals" say so Anthony pipes in, you ask the same question and get the same answer and you still don't "buy" it.

The reality was that up to something like $30M coin in, this was still a positive play for Dancer. I can't speak for him nor his bankroll but if this represented the best theo play at the time and he has the bankroll to support the inherent swings in the game, then I contend that he would be playing it and if offered again, would do so again.

Your position of quitting at a certain point doesn't make any sense....you either play it or you don't....it doesn't go from a "good" play to a "bad" one until you get north of $30M coin in. In fact, quitting is the absolute wrong play....you suffered a negative swing on expectation and not only did you lose money on the play, you lose the promo (car) which is what made the play positive to begin with.

I know you'll dismiss this but making $50K/yr. playing vp isn't a stretch. I can't live on that so I don't do it. However, making money playing vp isn't difficult....it's just not glamourous....it requires discipline. If you're not interested or capable of doing this, play recreationally and enjoy your hobby. There are those however who do play for a profit...this is their occupation or means of supplementing their income. Just because this isn't you, don't be so dismissive or critical.

Not looking to pick a fight or start an argument....just asking that you accept that there are those who are capable and choose to do it.

Dan

Arci, a math course isn't going to solve a fundamental difference here. Your saying that OVER TIME your going to come out ahead. That I will not take issue with because it is a fact if given enough money.

However, the money is the issue.

Your statistics can't save you when you don't have the cash to play with, and that IS the concept you don't for some reason, can't or won't understand.

I can tell you that statistically in Nevada one can make a living finding gold/silver if you just dig for it. It may take you many years and many hundreds if not millions of dollars, but you CAN make a living on it. If you don't start finding some gold/silver after a period of time, your going to be broke because you can't afford the expense of finding it, even though there are millions if not billions of dollars out there to be had. I'm not saying your going to be living in the lap of luxury, just making a living.

Just one thing to consider here, just how many times has these professionals been flat out broke/bankrupt? More than likely a few times because they ran into a bad stretch or stretches.

Anthony said one thing that makes this quite likely for many folks. "At some point bankrolls just don't matter". Therein lies the problem, bankrolls DO matter, because at some point your going to be realying on that stash to get you through one of those bad stretches which can and do last for years.

Unless there is reason to believe that promotions like this will be repeated many times in the future and the other contenders will always be strong-armed out of the game so hour hero and guru can win the top prize every time his esoteric calculation shows he has an advantage, this is a short term play and anyone who says this is POSITIVE is fooling himself/herself (or is in need to go back to his/her statistics classes).

The above poster liquidated his assets in Minnesota and moved to LV to become a "pro". Given the slim pickings now available in LV (No Virginia you CANNNOT make $50k a year every year playing in LV in 2011) he (predictably) went broke and moved back to balmy Minnesotta with his tail between his legs.
Where his "8 winning years" in a row comes from is anybodys guess...maybe those lucrative and generous Indian casinos in sunny Minnesotta?

I'm a winner 25 years in a row-playing POSITIVE games like FPDW, 10-6 JOB, 10/7 DB, etc. You can do it to. Easy to scratch out a tiny profit and enjoy the free booze and food comps but nowhere close to making a living-unless you live in the Shade Tree shelter.
Best part about my system? You can get all the strategy cards and practice software you need for FREE from places like Wizard of Odds and VP Genius and not spend hundreds of dollars on "packages" from some addicted A hole con man with a fake name and fake credentials.

Actually, if you were as smart as you apparently think you are, you should be able to generate strategies all by yourself. That is what I have done and by doing so found games far better than the small advantage games you brag about. I guess you can call your statement more evidence of a person who basks in their own ignorance.

LostSoul brings up the interesting point that this particular kind of promotion is infrequent. And I'd like to again point out that no one has addressed the fact that, occasionally, drawing-ticket promotions for high rollers have been rigged for certain individuals -- this is a historical fact. Whether point-earned promotions can/have been rigged similarly is open to debate. But if you include the possibility of a drawing being rigged somewhere, by someone, once a year, then this becomes a big-dollar, negative expectation game based on information so informationally incomplete it's frightening. Blind faith that everything is working as one presumes is just as intellectually deficient as rampant paranoia. And it'll get you broke quicker.

I buy the advantage player material. I am an ad player with lifetime winnings of a modest sort. But I haven't heard a rebuttal to the problem of rigged drawings. This has happened at a casino that is not an Ellis Island or Casino Royale -- and most people are unaware of it. That says something about the "damage" being caught did to this casino's reputation.

Exactly! And I think that's the main reason so many people snipe at Bob Dancer. While through the years others players, who were possibly every bit as good, celebrated their royals, Dancer BANKED his - to build bankroll.

In his columns, books, and classes, he advises players to get second jobs, pay off credit cards, and reading books like "Rich Dad, Poor Dad." And of course to always build bankroll, and avoid spending winnings. How many gamblers do you know who want to hear that kind of advice?

That's why I really resent the guy. There's nothing worse than a good example.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong...but in the past I know that it was legal for Nevada Casinos to use 'Shills', to stir up interest in a poker game, or to populate blackjack or bacarrat games...just to inspire other gamblers to get involved or bet more. They often played with house money and were paid by the hour. Now, if the use of 'Shills' is legal, couldn't a Casino have a Shill play such a contest with house money to get the coin-in up? If I remember correctly, the only requirement was that if you asked, they had to tell you if they were employed by the casino.

Alanleroy, that is a brilliant point. I can't believe that didn't occur to anyone else on this thread, me included. That is an absolute critical issue. And it's obvious that if I'm a casino manager, I'd have either a formal or informal relationship with some player(s) to pump up the profit margin of this kind of promotion. It's so obvious, and everybody missed it! Talk about naive -- put me in the naive boat!

And (theme from Twilight Zone), given Dancer's cozy relationship with various casinos, and given that Dancer is the only one with ALL the information -- well, he's certainly a candidate. In fact, he'd be the perfect candidate. Alanleroy -- that was brilliant.