I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

In California too, HOUSE PLAYERS are used in poker games. These House Players are paid fees by the casino to play per hour and the hourly fee usually matches the rake per hour that they will pay. The casino will also ADVANCE them money to play with, but in the end , the House Players need their own bankroll. In effect the house players (and all of the LA area casinos have them) are sitting there and playing rake free to keep the games going.

Now, chef seems to get the point that the rest of you AP advocates are missing.

If you play your "advantage games" and run into a cold streak that is big enough, you will be unable to either continue playing your "advantage games" or you will be in such a hole that you will never get out of it.

This "car" example is a good one. Negative forty thousand dollars. How many negative forty thousand dollars would a player (not necessarily Dancer) sustain before he was unable to play again (bankrupt) or would not be able to win enough to break even (let alone score the profit)??

this is the issue.

We dont deny your "math" which says if you have a game with a great paytable, and you have the appropriate comps and cash back and free play and other do hickies that it should add up to a profit. We dont deny that. But what chef is saying (I hope I speak for him correctly) and what I am saying is that you are putting too much FAITH that the machine will deliver the right combination of cards to make you a winner at the end of your roller coaster ride.

Actually a roller coast is a bad analogy, because unless there is a fatal crash, the roller coaster will deliver you to the same point at which you started.

Can a video poker machine always deliver you back to the same point at which you started (break even) or at a better point (profit)?

That is a huge leap of faith.

Lets say that building a house is like playing advantage video poker. Each house built and sold is planned out to return a profit to the builder. But if there is a bad market, and the builder has to take a loss on too many houses (thats too many video poker sessions) the builder can go out of business.

This is the point. You might say that over the long term the machine will deliver the correct number of winning hands to make you a winner, but what if the machine hits a cold streak that you dont have the bankroll to recover from?

Hence, the skepticism.

(Chef, I hope I have this right. It's what I think, and I hope I fairly represent what you think).

And so I am not misunderstood, I agree that knowing the math of the game can help you make the best choices of cards to increase your chances of winning, but I do not agree that the math of the game can guarantee you anything else including making a profit. That is where the luck comes in.

Money, your doing good at getting what I'm saying.

The roller coaster analogy isn't too bad although generally speaking you want the car to wind up ahead of where it started. It doesn't matter how far, just as along as it went passed the "start" line when it finished.

Yes Virginia, a VP machine can deliver you back to where you started. Math wise it IS possible, statistically, its a small chance but its there.

A theory is something that is unproven, its something that hasn't been proved or disproved.

This is getting hilarious. Now you guys are making up imaginary situations and claiming that makes this positive situation invalid. What complete and total nonsense. If Dancer did not have a sufficient bankroll then it was a bad risk on his part. No one has claimed otherwise. the basic assumption is that he did have the necessary bankroll.

As for casinos shilling their high end players ... really ... you think that's good business? Remember, this was by invitation and if Dancer found out it would be plastered all over the media.

More and more nonsense.

Good business or not...I was just wondering if it's legal. Is it?

Well, let's address the existence of rigged drawings first, arc. How or why do you suggest we overlook these?

Second, would vp tournament shills be good business? The answer is it would pad the profits, so yes, it would probably be good business.

Third, how would Dancer find out? Or what if Dancer is part of the whole issue?


As to how nonsensical this or that is, I've got to tell you that my experiences in the gambling world span 40 years and while I lack anthony's breadth, I have depth and comparable experience. The kinds of things we're discussing here are not farfetched, are not at all impossible. In fact, I am absolutely confident they have all been done by some managers at some points in time.

As I said, I'm an advantage player. I buy into everything that's been said about the math -- it's correct. What's not correct are these assumptions of context that apply some kind of absolute mathematical reasoning to what are social/business situations. High rollers purposefully zigzag pointspreads, high roller poker players have used horses and have sold stakes in themselves that dwarf their costs, and casino managers occasionally fix drawings. Shills for vp tournaments? Why not? It'd be relatively easy and reasonably effective.

This is a simple "Risk of Ruin" chart for Video Poker.

Not recommended for those who do not "get it" or understand "the math".

It, or something similar, is a tool that any and every advantage player should have in their arsenal when analyzing a "play", or calculating an opportunity.

ROR

Unless a machine is rigged then it will always reach the house advantage in the long run. The only thing to debate is whether or not a machine is rigged. You can not debate the math. Well, I guess you can, but you look pretty silly when you keep arguing that 2+2 = 5, and you do.

The real question is do you have enough time, discipline, and bankroll to reach the long run. The casino does because they have several dealers/machines that operate around the clock 365 days per year. That's how they can consistently collect that 5% HA. For a player to reach the long run results they have to put in the time and have the bankroll to survive the long cold streaks before things turn around.

We do know one thing that is done virtually every day. Manipulate math to confirm to what we want. Hence, the fine art of statistics.

As for playing VP, I'll take my x dollars, play it the best way I can. Win, lose, or draw it doesn't matter. Its money to blow on enterainment, pure and simple.

I'll leave the bankruptcies to the experts.

Kaypea you said it ... Are you there for the long run ?

edited to add:

No one here disputes the math. But what we can challenge is whether or not you, the individual player, will ever see the results that the math says will happen over the long term.

Because every draw is random (unless the machine is rigged) you may never see a royal flush in your lifetime, and you may never see a straight flush... heck, you might never see quad deuces in FPDW nor might you ever get quad deuces with a kicker in those various DW bonus games.

this is why I challenge the so called "advantage players" and why others do too. they put their faith in the theoretical return of the machine. thats the problem -- its the "theoretical return" not the proven return.

you cant prove anything when you push the button.

Me? Hell no. I don't have the patience or inclination to grind away at anything. That's why I'm posting on LVA right now instead of finishing up work for the day. I can play VP for a couple of hours until I'm done having a few beers and then I'm ready to get up and roam awhile.

I'm with you. I don't buy green bananas.

But I do understand the math and concepts behind the odds and how long term results will approach the true odds while anything can and does happen in the sort term.