I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

And I agree with you. and because anything can and does happen in the short term you can have winners and losers at video poker.

and because the math of the game tells you when to hold certain cards to improve your chances of winning, you should follow the math.

and thats as far as I go.

The EV is exactly what it is. If it is +1% then that is the average expected return. Depending on the game, with a large Variability it may mean you lose small 99 times out of 100 and win big 1 time out of 100. With a small variability game you may win 51 times and lose 49 times.

They build them fancy casinos with a 2% advantage. The casino banks on that advantage but why when the advantage is reversed is it all up to luck and somehow statistically improbable for the side with the advantage to come out ahead?


Look at the ROR chart. Maybe you're playing too high a game with too small a bankroll.

Melbedew says he's positive playing his game. Ok. Now, if Melbe was to increase his bets and bankroll 100x would not he still be a whole lot more positive? Melbe proves AP is possible and but then writes that it is not. Very confusing.

The amount of money you can statistically win with a 95% chance of not going broke with AP is tied to your bankroll.

And that's all Bob did. He followed the math and lost. This time.

It's like having that flush with four cards to the royal. You break the flush to make a run for the royal. The math says in the long run it will be worth it. Anything can happen in the short term.

Bob's math said in the long run to go for the car. Unfortunately this time he broke that flush to end up with just a straight. It doesn't mean it was a bad idea based upon his initial analysis.

I'm sure we have all had plays that we would do over if we knew the end result ahead of time. But then it wouldn't be called gambling, would it?

Anyone who doubts what you say here is a mark. Or more plainly a sucker.

Wherever there is money involved there is cheating involved. Period.

I don't suggest anyone overlook the chances of rigged drawings or machines. We should always be on the lookout for things that don't quite add up. However, here we are talking about one specific situation. So, we don't need to look beyond this promotion.

As for screwing your best customers being "good business". I guess I'll have to disagree with you here. Casinos go all out to attract high end players. A casino shilling a one time event with the potential to chase them off is nonsense.

Once again it's the risk that is the issue. If Dancer found out ... if the NGC found out ... it would be disastrous for the casino. Why would they risk it? In fact, the management that approved this kind of behavior would end up with the blame and be fired. Why would they risk it?

This doesn't mean all promotions, etc. are above board ... they may be entirely different. However, most of them must be honest or we'd hear a lot more stories, and hey, I've even won my share of drawings.

Pure nonsense.

No wonder you drink so much. What a pessimistic outlook on life. Guess that's why you're such a loser.

Arc, I just want to point out that in cases where the NGC found out, and the casino found out, and it made the Associated Press, not much happened. The casino paid a fine and, a couple of weeks later, nobody even remembered which one it was. These incidents always wind up being reported as insulated from high management, and the middle management folks are reprimanded or fired, and then a month later they have better positions at a Native American casino (true story, by the way).

So, no, it wouldn't be "disastrous." In fact, it would have a negligible effect. That, unfortunately, is the reality. Arc, you have the math down pat and I love you for being a calm and reasonable influence -- but when you speculate about real-world consequences, you're a bit off base.

A few points that you conspiracy theorists haven't considered:

1. This wasn't a drawing....it was simply a case of the person with the most points (read: coin in) wins. That's it, that's all. It's not like Dancer got 80% of some electronic drawing tickets and thought that this would be enough to count on winning the car. While I'm still not clear as to how he figured out how much coin in he needed, the bottom line is that even at up to $30M coin in this was still a positive play on paper and if he had/has the bankroll to play it, I would suggest that he would.

2. Contests like this happen fairly frequently. Some result in drawings where you do get electronic entries based on your coin in. Others give you a specific amount of free play for a corresponding amount of coin in. This can't be viewed as a one off type of event. Even if it was, there is another play tomorrow that if one was able to dissect the rules of the promo, might be an equal or better positive play.

3. The house doesn't need a shill in vp. The difference in live poker is obvious. The players bank the game and the house gets a rake. The more players, the more tables, the more rake. This isn't the case with vp...the house expects to win the inherent game return PLUS cost of errors, incompetent play, etc. This explains why there are some 9/6 JoB games where a certain casino calculates their theo at 7.5%.

4. Everyone seems to forget that casino's are private property in LV and the M could have simply exempted Dancer from playing. Instead, they even locked down the only 50 play machine with anything worth playing (.25/.50 8/5 BP) to accommodate him. It's common and has happened to me. Feel free to play whatever game you'd like but we're pulling your players card.

5. The "long run" isn't 24/7/365. It varies by game and I can't tell you exactly where it is but I'd like to think that in the course of 2-3M hands, my results will closely approximate the theo return of the game and associated benefits. I may not play this in a year, but certainly inside of two years. When analyzing a promo, you have to view the total return...not just game and cash back...if that was the case at the M, Dancer would never have played to the level he did. The added perk of the car is what made this a play.

6. This isn't an exact science....just because you have a theo positive play doesn't mean that your results today will fall on that mark. This is a risk/reward scenario for someone who views it as a job or paying hobby. If that isn't you, just go about playing recreationally and accept the swings and enjoy.

7. There are very few positive plays left where you can make a decent amount of money from the game itself. This has created the need to view the entire opportunity and not just the game with cash back itself. There are less than optimum plays that because of the mailer and other promos, make the game worth playing. If you're looking for a positive play, you'll be sitting next to Melbedewy (and likely having a drink spilled on you while he's filming) and eeking out $8/hr. If you're sharp, you'll find plenty of plays in Las Vegas that have an earn of 3-4 x's this 5-6 days a week.

Closing thought.....""People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it."
-- Chinese Proverb

Dan

Yeah, that's why he went bust as a VP "pro" in Vegas and had to move back to sunny Minnesotta with his tail between his legs and take advantage of those always lucrative and generous Indian casinos in Minnesotta.

I'll take that $8 an hour (actually $5 given the leisurely way I play) to enjoy a no lose game with free luxury rooms, food comps,etc. plus the joys of the casino atmosphere and the pleasure of free top shelf booooooooze 10 days out of ten over being some fake name con man A hole paying $90K for a $40K car-and then having to pay 35% to the IRS for the car



By the way, the guy with the fake name, the Million Dollar Fraud. You know what the actual marketplace thinks of his con? Twenty CENTS, that's what his "wisdom" is worth:
Still vastly overpriced